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Sustainability
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Sustainability
Article . 2023
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Long-Term Forecast of Sierra Leone’s Energy Supply and Demand (2019–2040): A LEAP Model Application for Sustainable Power Generation System

Authors: Foday Conteh; Masahiro Furukakoi; Shriram Srinivasarangan Rangarajan; Edward Randolph Collins; Michael A. Conteh; Ahmed Rashwan; Tomonobu Senjyu;

Long-Term Forecast of Sierra Leone’s Energy Supply and Demand (2019–2040): A LEAP Model Application for Sustainable Power Generation System

Abstract

Sierra Leone is suffering from a persistent electricity gap that has crippled its economic growth and prevented it from attaining several health and education development goals. This persistent electricity gap has generated significant interest in tackling the country’s long-lasting energy deficiency. Providing electricity in a reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective manner in Sierra Leone requires adopting robust integrated energy planning and appropriate technologies. Despite various interventions by the government, a balance between electricity demand and supply has yet to be achieved. Using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), this work assesses Sierra Leone’s energy supply and demand for 2019–2040. We developed three case scenarios (Base, Middle, and High) based on forecasted demand, resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. The Base case considers the electricity sector as business as usual, the Middle case examines the electricity sector reform roadmap and the prospect of integrating renewable energy into the power system, and the High case examines the sustainable development of the power generation system considering the electricity sector roadmap. As part of this study, we analyze potential alternatives to conventional electricity generation systems aimed at providing electricity in a sustainable, reliable, and affordable manner, including the use of renewable energy sources and technologies with less CO2 emissions. Model results estimate an increase in electricity demand of 1812.5 GWh, 1936 GWh, and 2635.8 GWh for Base, Middle, and High cases respectively. Also, there is a reduction in production, fuel cost, and CO2 emission in the High case to the Base case by 67.15%, 35.79%, and 51.8%, respectively. This paper concludes with recommendations devised from the study results for the power system of Sierra Leone.

Keywords

GHG emission, Environmental effects of industries and plants, LEAP, TJ807-830, scenario analysis, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, electricity forecasting; GHG emission; LEAP; scenario analysis, electricity forecasting

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    Top 10%
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    impulse
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold
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