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Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

doi: 10.3390/su4040740
handle: 10036/3635
Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
- University of Portsmouth United Kingdom
- University of Birmingham United Kingdom
- Birmingham City University United Kingdom
- Lancaster University United Kingdom
- University of Exeter United Kingdom
360, Environmental effects of industries and plants, future scenarios, sustainability; future scenarios; scenario archetypes, TJ807-830, /dk/atira/pure/core/subjects/architecture, Architecture and Interior Design, sustainability, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, scenario archetypes, GE1-350, jel: jel:Q0, jel: jel:Q2, jel: jel:Q3, jel: jel:Q5, jel: jel:O13, jel: jel:Q, jel: jel:Q56
360, Environmental effects of industries and plants, future scenarios, sustainability; future scenarios; scenario archetypes, TJ807-830, /dk/atira/pure/core/subjects/architecture, Architecture and Interior Design, sustainability, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, scenario archetypes, GE1-350, jel: jel:Q0, jel: jel:Q2, jel: jel:Q3, jel: jel:Q5, jel: jel:O13, jel: jel:Q, jel: jel:Q56
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).146 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 3 download downloads 72 - 3views72downloads
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