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</script>Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes
doi: 10.3390/su4040740
handle: 10036/3635
Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
- University of Birmingham United Kingdom
- University of Exeter United Kingdom
- BIRMINGHAM CITY UNIVERSITY
- Faculty of Arts and Social Science Departement of Sociology Lancaster University United Kingdom
- Coventry University United Kingdom
330, future scenarios, sustainability; future scenarios; scenario archetypes, TJ807-830, /dk/atira/pure/core/subjects/architecture, TD194-195, 333, Renewable energy sources, scenario archetypes, GE1-350, 360, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Architecture and Interior Design, sustainability, Environmental sciences, jel: jel:Q, jel: jel:Q0, jel: jel:Q2, jel: jel:Q3, jel: jel:Q5, jel: jel:O13, jel: jel:Q56
330, future scenarios, sustainability; future scenarios; scenario archetypes, TJ807-830, /dk/atira/pure/core/subjects/architecture, TD194-195, 333, Renewable energy sources, scenario archetypes, GE1-350, 360, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Architecture and Interior Design, sustainability, Environmental sciences, jel: jel:Q, jel: jel:Q0, jel: jel:Q2, jel: jel:Q3, jel: jel:Q5, jel: jel:O13, jel: jel:Q56
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).149 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
