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Coal Consumption Reduction in Shandong Province: A Dynamic Vector Autoregression Model

Authors: Chun Deng; Jie-Fang Dong;

Coal Consumption Reduction in Shandong Province: A Dynamic Vector Autoregression Model

Abstract

Coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion in China are attracting increasing attention worldwide. Between 1990 and 2013, the coal consumption in Shandong Province increased by approximately 5.29 times. Meanwhile, the proportion of coal consumption of Shandong Province to China rose from 7.6% to 10.8%, and to the world, it rose from 1.8% to 5.5%. Identifying the drivers of coal consumption in Shandong Province is vital for developing effective environmental policies. This paper uses the Vector Autoregression model to analyze the influencing factors of coal consumption in Shandong Province. The results show that industrialization plays a dominant role in increasing coal consumption. Conversely, coal efficiency is the key factor to curtailing coal consumption. Although there is a rebound effect of coal efficiency in the short term, from a long-term perspective, coal efficiency will reduce coal consumption gradually. Both economic growth and urbanization have a significant effect on coal consumption in Shandong Province. In addition, the substitution effect of oil to coal has not yet met expectations. These findings are important for relevant authorities in Shandong in developing appropriate policies to halt the growth of coal consumption.

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Keywords

coal consumption, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Shandong Province, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, STIRPAT model, impulse response functions, vector autoregression model, coal consumption; STIRPAT model; vector autoregression model; impulse response functions; Shandong Province, GE1-350

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    5
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold