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Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators

doi: 10.3390/su9112065
handle: 1959.4/unsworks_53573
Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind generators based on Wavelet transform, bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN). To this end, a weighted time series for wind dominated power systems is calculated and added to a bivariate ARIMA model along with the price time series. Moreover, RBFN is applied as a tool to correct the estimation error, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the structure and adapt the RBFN to the particular training set. This method is evaluated on the Spanish electricity market, which shows the efficiency of this approach. This method has less error compared with other methods especially when it considers the effects of large-scale wind generators.
- Instituto Superior de Espinho Portugal
- UNSW Sydney Australia
- North China Electric Power University China (People's Republic of)
- Universidade do Porto Portugal
- University of Lisbon Portugal
330, anzsrc-for: 46 Information and Computing Sciences, price forecasting, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, anzsrc-for: 40 Engineering, 46 Information and Computing Sciences, wind generator, hybrid method, GE1-350, anzsrc-for: 4008 Electrical Engineering, wavelet transform, 40 Engineering, anzsrc-for: 12 Built Environment and Design, Environmental effects of industries and plants, bivariate ARIMA; hybrid method; price forecasting; wind generator; wavelet transform, Environmental sciences, 7 Affordable and Clean Energy, 4008 Electrical Engineering, bivariate ARIMA
330, anzsrc-for: 46 Information and Computing Sciences, price forecasting, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, anzsrc-for: 40 Engineering, 46 Information and Computing Sciences, wind generator, hybrid method, GE1-350, anzsrc-for: 4008 Electrical Engineering, wavelet transform, 40 Engineering, anzsrc-for: 12 Built Environment and Design, Environmental effects of industries and plants, bivariate ARIMA; hybrid method; price forecasting; wind generator; wavelet transform, Environmental sciences, 7 Affordable and Clean Energy, 4008 Electrical Engineering, bivariate ARIMA
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