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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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Article . 2023
Data sources: DOAJ
https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/cx...
Other literature type . 2023
Data sources: Datacite
https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/zt...
Other literature type . 2023
Data sources: Datacite
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The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in the Hindu Kush Mountains Range

تأثير التذبذب الجنوبي لظاهرة النينيو على هطول الأمطار المتطرفة في سلسلة جبال هندوكوش
Authors: Muhammad Umer Masood; Saif Haider; Muhammad Rashid; Muhammad Usama Khan Lodhi; Chaitanya B. Pande; Fahad Alshehri; Kaywan Othman Ahmed; +2 Authors

The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in the Hindu Kush Mountains Range

Abstract

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is devastating as it negatively impacts global climatic conditions, which can cause extreme events, including floods and droughts, which are harmful to the region’s economy. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of the ENSO on extreme precipitation events across the Upper Indus Basin. We examined the connections between 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and two ENSO indicators, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). This analysis covers both annual and seasonal scales and spans the period from 1971 to 2019. Statistical tests (i.e., Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) were used to observe the variations in the EPIs. The results revealed that the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) is increasing more than Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs); overall, the EPIs exhibited increasing trends, except for the Rx1 (max. 1-day precipitation) and Rx5 (max. 5-day precipitation) indices. The ENSO indicator ONI is a temperature-related ENSO index. The results further showed that the CDD value has a significant positive correlation with the SOI for most of the UIB (Upper Indus Basin) region, whereas for the CWD value, high elevated stations gave a positive relationship. A significant negative relationship was observed for the lower portion of the UIB. The Rx1 and Rx5 indices were observed to have a negative relationship with the SOI, indicating that El Nino causes heavy rainfall. The R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extreme wet days) indices were observed to have significant negative trends in most of the UIB. In contrast, high elevated stations depicted a significant positive relationship that indicates they are affected by La Nina conditions. The PRCPTOT index exhibited a negative relationship with the SOI, revealing that the El Nino phase causes wet conditions in the UIB. The ONI gave a significant positive relationship for the UIB region, reinforcing the idea that both indices exhibit more precipitation during El Nino. The above observations imply that while policies are being developed to cope with climate change impacts, the effects of the ENSO should also be considered.

Keywords

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Variability Research, Global climate, Precipitation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Oceanography, Environmental science, Indus, Meteorology, Climate change, TD201-500, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, Geography, Innovative Trend Analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Paleontology, Geology, Hydraulic engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, ENSO Variability, Structural basin, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Upper Indus Basin, ENSO, TC1-978, Precipitation Extremes

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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