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future precipitation and temperature changes over the taro parma and enza river basins in northern italy

Authors: D’Oria, Marco; COZZI, CHIARA; Tanda, Maria Giovanna;

future precipitation and temperature changes over the taro parma and enza river basins in northern italy

Abstract

This study analyzes the climate change effects on the future precipitation and temperature over the Taro, Parma and Enza River basins, in the Emilia Romagna region, northern Italy. An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were adopted. The results are reported in terms of precipitation and mean temperature anomalies between a reference period (RP, 1986-2005) and three future periods: short-term (ST) 2016-2035, medium-term (MT) 2046-2065 and long-term (LT) 2081-2100. With reference to the rainfall data, irregular and slight variations are expected at any season and period; on a yearly scale, changes from -5% to +6% are estimated. On the other hand, a gradual warming of the study domain in the future periods is unequivocal. At annual scale, increments up to +0.75°C at ST, +1.5°C at MT and +2°C at LT are expected under the RCP 4.5, and higher, up to +4°C at LT with the RCP 8.5. In addition, the trend evolution of the climate variables was analyzed using a thirty-year moving time window up to the end of the century. From the results, it is evident that the pattern of the trend gradients follows the pattern of the scenario radiative forcing. ; I cambiamenti climatici rappresentano un fenomeno attuale e molto discusso anche dal punto di vista politico: sono stati rilevati aumenti delle temperature, alterazioni dei regimi pluviometrici, scioglimento di ghiacciai e nevai, e il livello medio del mare è in aumento. Si prevede che tali cambiamenti continueranno e che gli eventi climatici estremi all'origine di pericoli quali alluvioni e siccità diventeranno sempre più frequenti ed intensi. Secondo la maggior parte della comunità scientifica internazionale, molte delle alterazioni verificatesi nell'ultimo secolo sono sostanzialmente dovute all'osservato aumento delle concentrazioni di gas ad effetto serra. Sebbene il cambiamento climatico sia globale, i suoi impatti spesso variano da regione a regione. I principali strumenti disponibili ai ricercatori per analizzare il ...

Country
Italy
Related Organizations
Keywords

Environmental Engineering, 330, Temperature trend, Climate change, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Climate model, Precipitation trend

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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Energy Research