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Nature
Article
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Nature
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2020
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A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Authors: Matthew Gidden; Malte Meinshausen; Malte Meinshausen; Keywan Riahi; Keywan Riahi; Daniel Huppmann; Leon Clarke; +6 Authors

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Abstract

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

Countries
Germany, United Kingdom
Keywords

Conservation of Natural Resources, 550, United Nations, General Science & Technology, Climate Change, MITIGATION, ENERGY, REMOVAL, FUTURE, Science & Technology, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CUMULATIVE CARBON, Temperature, AIR-POLLUTION, FRAMEWORK, Multidisciplinary Sciences, MODEL, CO2 EMISSIONS, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Goals

  • BIP!
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    citations
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    347
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    Top 0.1%
    influence
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    Top 1%
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    Top 0.1%
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    visibility views 108
    download downloads 133
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visibility
download
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
OpenAIRE UsageCountsDownloads provided by UsageCounts
347
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
108
133
Green
bronze