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A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

pmid: 31534246
handle: 10044/1/73971
A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2&#176;C and even 1.5&#176;C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>
- National Research Council Italy
- ETH Zurich Switzerland
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Norway
- University of Melbourne Australia
Conservation of Natural Resources, 550, United Nations, General Science & Technology, Climate Change, MITIGATION, ENERGY, REMOVAL, FUTURE, Science & Technology, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CUMULATIVE CARBON, Temperature, AIR-POLLUTION, FRAMEWORK, Multidisciplinary Sciences, MODEL, CO2 EMISSIONS, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Goals
Conservation of Natural Resources, 550, United Nations, General Science & Technology, Climate Change, MITIGATION, ENERGY, REMOVAL, FUTURE, Science & Technology, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CUMULATIVE CARBON, Temperature, AIR-POLLUTION, FRAMEWORK, Multidisciplinary Sciences, MODEL, CO2 EMISSIONS, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Goals
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