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Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China

Authors: Qi Guan; Jing Tang; Kyle Frankel Davis; Mengxiang Kong; Lian Feng; Kun Shi; Guy Schurgers;

Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China

Abstract

Improving agricultural sustainability is a global challenge, particularly for China’s high-input and low-efficiency cropping systems with environmental trade-offs. Although national strategies have been implemented to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in agriculture, the potential contributions of crop switching as a promising solution under varying future climate change are still under-explored. Here, we optimize cropping patterns spatially with the targets of enhancing agriculture production, reducing environmental costs, and achieving sustainable fertilization across the different climate scenarios. Compared with that maintains the historical cropping patterns, the optimal crop distributions under different climate scenario consistently suggest allocating the planting areas of maize and rapeseed to the other crops (rice, wheat, soybean, peanut and potato). Such crop switching can consequently increase crop production by 14.1%, with the reduction in environmental impacts (8.2% for leached nitrogen and 24.0% for irrigation water use) across three representative Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) from 2020 to 2100. The sustainable fertilization rates vary from 148-173 kg N ha-1 in 2030 to 213-253 kg N ha-1 in 2070, significantly smaller than the current rate (305 kg N ha-1). These outcomes highlight large potential benefits of crop switching and fertilizer management for improving China’s future agricultural sustainability.

Countries
Denmark, United States
Keywords

climate change, fertilizer management, 330, agricultural sustainability, national scale, crop switching, Physical Sciences and Engineering

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold
Related to Research communities
Energy Research