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Blue in green: forestation turns blue water green, mitigating heat at the expense of water availability

Authors: Asselin, Olivier; Leduc, Martin; Paquin, Dominique; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Rechid, Diana; Ludwig, Ralf;

Blue in green: forestation turns blue water green, mitigating heat at the expense of water availability

Abstract

In order to meet a stringent carbon budget, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) aligned with the Paris Agreement typically require substantial land-use changes (LUC), such as large-scale forestation and bioenergy crop plantations. What if such a low-emission, intense-LUC scenario actually materialized? In this contribution, we quantify the biophysical effects of LUC under SSP1-2.6 using an ensemble of regional climate simulations over Europe. We find that LUC projected over the 21st century, primarily broadleaf-tree forestation at the expense of grasslands, reduce summertime heat extremes significantly over large swaths of continental Europe. In fact, cooling from LUC trumps warming by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in milder heat extremes by 2100 for about half of the European population. Forestation brings heat relief by shifting the partition of turbulent energy fluxes away from sensible and towards latent heat fluxes. Impacts on the water cycle are then assessed. Forestation enhances precipitation recycling over continental Europe, but not enough to match the boost of evapotranspiration (green water flux). Run-off (blue water flux) is reduced as a consequence. Some regions experience severe drying in response. In other words, forestation turns blue water green, bringing heat relief but compromising water availability in some already-dry regions.

Country
France
Keywords

[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, 550, Atmosphere, surface energy balance, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Science, Physics, QC1-999, forestation, Q, water cycle, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Environmental sciences, climate change, afforestation/reforestation, climate change land-use changes forestation afforestation/reforestation water cycle heat waves surface energy balance, GE1-350, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, land-use changes, TD1-1066, heat waves

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold
Related to Research communities
Energy Research