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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

تقييم آثار الاحترار العالمي بمقدار 1.5 درجة مئوية – بروتوكول المحاكاة لمشروع مقارنة نموذج التأثير بين القطاعات (ISIMIP2b)
Authors: K. Frieler; S. Lange; F. Piontek; C. P. O. Reyer; J. Schewe; L. Warszawski; F. Zhao; +60 Authors

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Abstract

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Keywords

550, Sociology and Political Science, Representative Concentration Pathways, Economics, Climate Change and Variability Research, Macroeconomics, Social Sciences, 910, Coupled model intercomparison project, Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap, Natural resource economics, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Climate change, Environmental resource management, Climatology, QE1-996.5, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Global warming, Global temperature, Geology, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Physical Sciences, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, environment, Economic Implications of Climate Change Policies, Economics and Econometrics, Greenhouse gas, Climate model, Environmental science, Impact of Climate Change on Human Migration, Global-warming potential, Life Science, Biology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, 500, Kyoto Protocol, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Computable general equilibrium, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, Climate Modeling

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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