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Assessing the prospective resource base for enhanced geothermal systems in Europe

Authors: Limberger J.[1]; Calcagno P. [2]; Manzella A.[3]; Trumpy E.[3]; Boxem T. [4]; Pluymackers M.[4]; Van Wess J. [1; +1 Authors

Assessing the prospective resource base for enhanced geothermal systems in Europe

Abstract

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In this study the resource base for EGS (enhanced geothermal systems) in Europe was quantified and economically constrained, applying a discounted cash-flow model to different techno-economic scenarios for future EGS in 2020, 2030, and 2050. Temperature is a critical parameter that controls the amount of thermal energy available in the subsurface. Therefore, the first step in assessing the European resource base for EGS is the construction of a subsurface temperature model of onshore Europe. Subsurface temperatures were computed to a depth of 10 km below ground level for a regular 3-D hexahedral grid with a horizontal resolution of 10 km and a vertical resolution of 250 m. Vertical conductive heat transport was considered as the main heat transfer mechanism. Surface temperature and basal heat flow were used as boundary conditions for the top and bottom of the model, respectively. If publicly available, the most recent and comprehensive regional temperature models, based on data from wells, were incorporated. <br><br> With the modeled subsurface temperatures and future technical and economic scenarios, the technical potential and minimum levelized cost of energy (LCOE) were calculated for each grid cell of the temperature model. Calculations for a typical EGS scenario yield costs of EUR 215 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2020, EUR 127 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2030, and EUR 70 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2050. Cutoff values of EUR 200 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2020, EUR 150 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2030, and EUR 100 MWh<sup>−1</sup> in 2050 are imposed to the calculated LCOE values in each grid cell to limit the technical potential, resulting in an economic potential for Europe of 19 GW<sub>e</sub> in 2020, 22 GW<sub>e</sub> in 2030, and 522 GW<sub>e</sub> in 2050. The results of our approach do not only provide an indication of prospective areas for future EGS in Europe, but also show a more realistic cost determined and depth-dependent distribution of the technical potential by applying different well cost models for 2020, 2030, and 2050.</p>

Countries
Netherlands, Italy, Italy
Keywords

Energy, geothermal potential, Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands, Earth / Environmental, economic assessment, Geological Survey Netherlands, ELSS - Earth, Europe, SGE - Sustainable Geo Energy, Life and Social Sciences, power production

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    61
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
61
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold