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Journal of Transport and Land Use
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Journal of Transport and Land Use
Article
License: CC BY NC
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Journal of Transport and Land Use
Article . 2018
Data sources: DOAJ
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Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Authors: Alistair Ford; Richard Dawson; Phil Blythe; Stuart Barr;

Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Abstract

The adoption of the Paris Agreement has committed the world to limiting anthropogenic climate change to 2°C above preindustrial levels, adapting to climate risks, and fostering climate resilience. Given the high proportion of global emissions released by cities and the concentration of people living in urban areas, this will require an unprecedented reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and transformation of the built environment on a yet unparalleled timescale. This poses substantial challenges for urban land-use and transport planning and for the use of land-use transport models (LUTM), which have historically been developed to test incremental changes rather than the rapid transformations implied by the Paris Agreement. This paper sets out the need for a new generation of tools to support the planning of a transition toward a low-carbon and resilient future, arguing that land-use and transport modeling tools are crucial to support this process. Recent developments in urban integrated assessment that link models of land-use and transport with other environmental models of greenhouse gas emissions and climate hazards show promise as platforms to assess the potential of urban policies in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The paper concludes by defining challenges for the LUTM community if it is to achieve these goals. Crucial will be the adoption of new modeling approaches to better represent rapid social and technological change and to concurrently assess the resilience and sustainability implications of different land-use and transport policies. Simple models to explore multiple scenarios of change must be integrated with more sophisticated models for detailed design. Collaborative approaches will be necessary to allow multiple stakeholders to use these tools to explore urban futures and design radical urban transitions across multiple and interdependent urban sectors.

Countries
United States, United Kingdom, United States
Related Organizations
Keywords

Mitigation, 710, adaptation, mitigation, Climate change, integrated assessment, Adaptation, HE1-9990, TA1001-1280, sustainability, Transportation engineering, Planning, climate change, Sustainability, Land use, planning, Transportation and communications

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    36
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold