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Vulnerabilities in Europe During Times of Transition

Authors: Palencia-Esteban, Amaia; Brunori, Paolo;

Vulnerabilities in Europe During Times of Transition

Abstract

This study develops a multidimensional framework to assess cumulative exposure to climaterelated risks across Europe, integrating health, energy, transport, and socioeconomic conditions. By mapping risk distribution across regions and measuring dependence, we capture the interconnectedness of exposures and identify key socioeconomic drivers. Our findings reveal a substantial variation in risk distribution, with no clear geographical patterns. Unsurprisingly, household income emerges as the strongest determinant of exposure. We extend this analysis by projecting cumulative exposure to 2050, applying climate scenarios. The results suggest gradual rather than sharp change in exposure over time, with some areas exhibiting sharp rises; however, average risks are expected to rise across the entire continent.

Keywords

sustainable performances, just transition, transport, health, sustainability, SPES, socieoeconomic conditions, energy, green transition

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