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Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than market forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level, with a drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to oil-inventory news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.
WTI crude oil futures, 330, Inventory release, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Intraday data, Insider trading, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
WTI crude oil futures, 330, Inventory release, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Intraday data, Insider trading, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).6 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
