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Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations

Authors: Ordóñez, Javier; Sala, Hector; Silva, José I.;

Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations

Abstract

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Country
Spain
Keywords

unemployment, vacancies, unemployment, oil prices, business fluctuations, Petroli -- Indústria i comerç -- Preus, E32, oil prices, Prices, Oil Prices, Unemployment, Vacancies, Business Fluctuations., business fluctuations, Estats Units, Petroli, vacancies, Oil, United States, Preus, E22, J63, J64, jel: jel:E22, jel: jel:J64, jel: jel:J63, jel: jel:E32, ddc: ddc:330

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Related to Research communities
Energy Research