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Conservation of the Illinois flora: A climate change vulnerability assessment of 73 plant species

Authors: Baty, Jill H.; Zaya, David N.; Spyreas, Greg R.; Molano-Flores, Brenda; Benson, Thomas J.;

Conservation of the Illinois flora: A climate change vulnerability assessment of 73 plant species

Abstract

It will be important for land managers, ecological researchers and policymakers to understand how predicted climate changes may affect the flora of Illinois. A climate change vulnerability assessment was completed in 2011 for the162 Animal Species in Greatest Need of Conservation using NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Here we selected 73plant species found in Illinois and calculated their relative vulnerabilities to predicted climate changes, also using the NatureServe CCVI tool. We selected species from several groups that we felt would be broadly representative of the Illinois flora. These groups included: rare plants, invasive plants, important prairie species, important woodland/savanna species, important forest species, and plants important to society. We compiled and entered data regarding both the species’ exposures to predicted climate changes and their sensitivities to those changes. Exposures were determined by overlapping species range maps for Illinois with maps of temperature and moisture (AET:PET) predictions for the middle of this century. Species sensitivities were determined by interviewing between 4 and 12 experts for each plant species. Experts answered questions found in the CCVI tool regarding the species’ biologies, ecologies and behaviors. Results for each individual survey were averaged for each species. Results fell into one of five vulnerability categories: Extremely Vulnerable, Highly Vulnerable, Moderately Vulnerable, Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable, and Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely. Results for these 73species in Illinois fell into all 5 vulnerability categories, with the majority (67%) falling into the Presumed Stable category. The species most vulnerable to predicted climate changes were all of conservation concern; most were federal or state listed species. Native species tended to be more vulnerable than non-natives, and plants important to prairies, savannas and forests were equally vulnerable to predicted changes. The four species were ranked as ...

Country
United States
Keywords

580, adaptive management, plants, conservation, Illinois flora, rare plants, CCVI, invasive species, Climate change, climate change vulnerability assessment, Threatened and Endangered species, conservation planning, Critical Trends Assessment Program (CTAP), environmental monitoring

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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