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マルチ解像度RCMにおけるゲリラ豪雨の再現特性の解析及び生起頻度の将来変化推定 ; Analysis of the Reproduction Features of the Guerrilla-heavy Rainfall and Estimation of Future Changes of the Occurrence Frequency in Multi-resolution RCMs

Name: マルチ解像度RCMにおけるゲリラ豪雨の再現特性の解析及び生起頻度の将来変化推定 ; Analysis of the Reproduction Features of the Guerrilla-heavy Rainfall and Estimation of Future Changes of the Occurrence Frequency in Multi-resolution RCMs
Keywords: climate change, SSI, cell-tracking algorism, セル追跡アルゴリズム, RCM, 気候変動, Guerrilla-heavy rainfall, ゲリラ豪雨, 519.9

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Report 01 Sep 2018 Japan Japanese Publisher:京都大学防災研究所

handle: 2433/235865

マルチ解像度RCMにおけるゲリラ豪雨の再現特性の解析及び生起頻度の将来変化推定 ; Analysis of the Reproduction Features of the Guerrilla-heavy Rainfall and Estimation of Future Changes of the Occurrence Frequency in Multi-resolution RCMs

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Abstract

It has been increasingly important to project the future risk of small-scale torrential rainfall in summer, called ‘Guerrilla-heavy rainfall' in urban areas in Japan. In this study, we implemented some analysis in August in Kinki Region, from the view point of both the rainfall distribution and the unstable atmospheric condition. First, we picked up Guerrilla-heavy rainfall events with both tracking algorism and visual judgement of rainfall distribution of NHRCM05 output. Then, we analyzed the atmospheric stability of the events that was picked up, using a parameter SSI (Showalter Stability Index). As a result of T-test, it is implied that the number of days having Guerrilla-heavy rainfall will significantly increase at the end of August, and that this tendency corresponded to the more unstable SSI in the future. In conclusion, the season when Guerrilla-heavy rainfall is likely to occur will be longer in the future summer, with the more unstable SSI at the end of August

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Japan

Related Organizations

Kyoto University
Japan

Keywords

climate change, SSI, cell-tracking algorism, セル追跡アルゴリズム, RCM, 気候変動, Guerrilla-heavy rainfall, ゲリラ豪雨, 519.9

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