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Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model: Evaluation of High/Low and Close/Open Spreads for Precious Metals

Authors: Samet Gunay;

Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model: Evaluation of High/Low and Close/Open Spreads for Precious Metals

Abstract

Daily high/low and close/open prices are the key parameters of candlestick approach in technical analysis. Besides, the price spreads are also important as they represent an upward or a downward trend. In this study, we investigate the relationship between daily high/low prices and close/open prices for precious metals: gold, copper, palladium, and silver. Empirical analysis has been performed through fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (FCVAR) model. To observe the relationships, the trends are tested for their characteristics in both states: positive and negative spreads in close/open prices. Results indicated that for a positive trend, high/low spreads have a negative impact on close/open spreads in long run relationship. However, when closing price is less than the opening prices, it is revealed that expanding range in high/low spreads causes a rise in close/open spreads for copper and silver differently from gold price.

Keywords

H, AZ20-999, Social Sciences, History of scholarship and learning. The humanities

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
gold