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IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
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Multifractal based return interval approach for short‐term electricity price volatility risk estimation

Authors: Chi Yung Chung; Fushuan Wen; Weijia Liu;

Multifractal based return interval approach for short‐term electricity price volatility risk estimation

Abstract

With the ever‐increasing penetration level of renewable energy generation in a power system, more uncertainties are introduced and hence risk management in the electricity market associated is becoming a more difficult issue for a market participant in the context of optimising his/her portfolio. Among a lot of risk factors in the competitive electricity market environment, the highly volatile electricity price contributes most to the financial risk of the power portfolio, especially in a short‐term risk management scenario such as the spot market and real‐time balancing market. Some research work has shown that the fluctuations of electricity prices exhibit multifractal characteristics, but less work has been done on the price volatility risk evaluation based on the multifractal theory. This study hence examines the feasibility of applying the multifractal theory to analyse the electricity price fluctuation, and applies the multifractal theory for evaluating the financial risk caused by electricity price volatility. A modified return interval approach considering the parameters of multifractal characteristics is employed to estimate the value‐at‐risk (VaR) of the electricity price. The fluctuant electricity price data series in the Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland energy market are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed VaR estimation method for short‐term electricity price volatility risk evaluation.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold
Published in a Diamond OA journal