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The Science of The Total Environment
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The Science of The Total Environment
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Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

Authors: Paul Zagamé; Adam Hawkes; Felix Neuner; Marc Vielle; Elisa Delpiazzo; Elisa Delpiazzo; Elisa Delpiazzo; +33 Authors

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

Abstract

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

Countries
United Kingdom, Norway, Austria, Norway, Italy, Switzerland
Keywords

knowledge, Model inter-comparison, Climate, Climate Change, pathways, Energy system models, decarbonisation, reduction, 333, Stakeholder engagement, energy system, Integrated assessment models, integrated assessment models, science, stakeholder engagement, scenarios, emissions, energy system models, climate policy, Carbon Dioxide, model inter-comparison, Carbon, Europe, Policy, Climate policy, multimodel assessment, Climate policy; Energy system models; Europe; Integrated assessment models; Model inter-comparison; Stakeholder engagement, europe, sector, Environmental Sciences

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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31
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