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Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Ambitious international targets are being developed to protect and restore biodiversity under the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the European Union's Green Deal. Yet, the land system consequences of meeting such targets are unclear, as multiple pathways may be able to deliver on the set targets. This paper introduces a novel scenario approach assessing the plural implementations of these targets. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aims to illustrate the different, positive ways in which society can value nature. It therefore offers a lens through which the spatial implementation of sustainability targets may be envisioned. We used CLUMondo, a spatially explicit model, to simulate plural land system scenarios for Europe for 2050. The model builds on current land system representations of Europe and explores how and where sustainability targets can be implemented under projected population trends and commodity demands. We created three different scenarios in which the sustainability targets are met, each representing an alternative, normative view on nature as represented by the NFF, favoring land systems providing strong climate regulation (Nature for Society), species conservation (Nature for Nature), or agricultural heritage features (Nature as Culture). Our results show that, irrespective of the NFF view, meeting sustainability targets will require European land systems to drastically change, as natural grasslands and forests are forecast to expand while productive areas are projected to undergo a dual intensification and diversification trajectory. Despite each NFF perspective showcasing a similar direction of change, 20% of Europe's land area will differ based on the adopted NFF perspective, with hotspots of disagreement identified in eastern and western Europe. These simulations go beyond existing scenario approaches by not only depicting broad societal developments for Europe, but also by quantifying the land system synergies and trade-offs associated with alternative, archetypal, interpretations and values of how nature may be managed for sustainability. This quantification exemplifies a means towards constructive dialogue, on the one hand by acknowledging areas of contention, and bringing such issues to the fore, and on the other by highlighting points of convergence in a vision for a sustainable Europe.

Abstract Cities are the major contributors to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as being leading innovators and implementers of policy measures in climate change mitigation. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an agglomeration of cities put forward by China to strengthen international cooperation among “Belt and Road” countries and promote low-carbon, inclusive, coordinated and sustainable development. Few studies have discussed the emission characteristics of GBA cities. This study, for the first time, compiles emission inventories of 11 GBA cities and their surroundings based on IPCC territorial emission accounting approach, which are consistent and comparable with the national and provincial inventories. Results show that (a) total emissions increased from 426 Mt in 2000 to 610 Mt in 2016, while emissions of GBA cities increased rapidly by 6.9% over 2000–2011 and peaked in 2014 (334 Mt); (b) raw coal and diesel oil are the top two emitters by energy type, while energy production sector and tertiary industry are the top two largest sectors; (c) GBA cities take the lead in low-carbon development, emitted 4% of total national emissions and contributed 13% of national GDP with less than a third of national emission intensities and less than three-quarters of national per capita emissions; (d) Macao, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have the top three lowest emission intensity in the country; (e) most of GBA cities are experiencing the shift from an industrial economy to a service economy, while Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Foshan and Huizhou reached their peak emissions and Guangzhou, Dongguan and Jiangmen remained decreasing emission tendencies; (g) for those coal-dominate or energy-production cities (i.e. Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Maoming, Yangjiang, Shanwei, Shaoguan and Zhanjiang) in mid-term industrialization, total emissions experienced soaring increases. The emission inventories provide robust, self-consistent, transparent and comparable data support for identifying spatial–temporal emission characteristics, developing low-carbon policies, monitoring mitigation progress in GBA cities as well as further emissions-related studies at a city-level. The low-carbon roadmaps designed for GBA cities and their surroundings also provide a benchmark for other developing countries/cities to adapting changing climate and achieve sustainable development.

Marine diatoms have recently gained much attention as they are expected to be a promising resource for sustainable production of bioactive compounds such as carotenoids and biofuels as a future clean energy solution. To develop photosynthetic cell factories, it is important to improve diatoms for value-added products. In this study, we utilized UVC radiation to induce mutations in the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum and screened strains with enhanced accumulation of neutral lipids and carotenoids. Adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) was also used in parallel to develop altered phenotypic and biological functions in P. tricornutum and it was reported for the first time that ALE was successfully applied on diatoms for the enhancement of growth performance and productivity of value-added carotenoids to date. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) was utilized to study the composition of major pigments in the wild type P. tricornutum, UV mutants and ALE strains. UVC radiated strains exhibited higher accumulation of fucoxanthin as well as neutral lipids compared to their wild type counterpart. In addition to UV mutagenesis, P. tricornutum strains developed by ALE also yielded enhanced biomass production and fucoxanthin accumulation under combined red and blue light. In short, both UV mutagenesis and ALE appeared as an effective approach to developing desired phenotypes in the marine diatoms via electromagnetic radiation-induced oxidative stress.

Growing scientific evidence for the indispensable role of environmental sustainability in sustainable development calls for appropriate frameworks and indicators for environmental sustainability assessment (ESA). In this paper, we operationalize and update the footprint-boundary ESA framework, with a particular focus on its methodological and application extensions to the national level. By using the latest datasets available, the planetary boundaries for carbon emissions, water use and land use are allocated to 28 selected countries in comparison to the corresponding environmental footprints. The environmental sustainability ratio (ESR)—an internationally comparable indicator representing the sustainability gap between contemporary anthropogenic interference and critical capacity thresholds—allows one to map the reserve or transgression of the nation-specific environmental boundaries. While the geographical distribution of the three ESRs varies across nations, in general, the worldwide unsustainability of carbon emissions is largely driven by economic development, while resource endowments play a more central role in explaining national performance on water and land use. The main value added of this paper is to provide concrete evidence of the usefulness of the proposed framework in allocating overall responsibility for environmental sustainability to sub-global scales and in informing policy makers about the need to prevent the planet’s environment from tipping into an undesirable state.

Abstract. Landscape fires are a significant contributor to atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Although many studies have looked at biomass burning products and their fate in the atmosphere, estimating and tracing atmospheric pollution from landscape fires based on atmospheric measurements is challenging due to the large variability in fuel composition and burning conditions. Stable carbon isotopes in biomass burning (BB) emissions can be used to trace the contribution of C3 plants (e.g., trees or shrubs) and C4 plants (e.g. savanna grasses) to various combustion products. However, there are still many uncertainties regarding changes in isotopic composition (also known as fractionation) of the emitted carbon compared to the burnt fuel during the pyrolysis and combustion processes. To study BB isotope fractionation, we performed a series of laboratory fire experiments in which we burned pure C3 and C4 plants as well as mixtures of the two. Using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), we measured stable carbon isotope signatures in the pre-fire fuels and post-fire residual char, as well as in the CO2, CO, CH4, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) emissions, which together constitute over 98 % of the post-fire carbon. Our laboratory tests indicated substantial isotopic fractionation in combustion products compared to the fuel, which varied between the measured fire products. CO2, EC and residual char were the most reliable tracers of the fuel 13C signature. CO in particular showed a distinct dependence on burning conditions; flaming emissions were enriched in 13C compared to smouldering combustion emissions. For CH4 and OC, the fractionation was opposite for C3 emissions (13C-enriched) and C4 emissions (13C-depleted). This indicates that while it is possible to distinguish between fires that were dominated by either C3 or C4 fuels using these tracers, it is more complicated to quantify their relative contribution to a mixed-fuel-fire based on the δ13C signature of emissions. Besides laboratory experiments, we sampled gases and carbonaceous aerosols from prescribed fires in the Niassa special Reserve (NSR) in Mozambique, using an unmanned aerial system (UAS)-mounted sampling set-up. We also provide a range of C3 : C4 contributions to the fuel and measured the fuel isotopic signatures. While both OC and EC were useful tracers of the C3 to C4 fuel ratio in mixed fires in the lab, we found particularly OC to be depleted compared to the calculated fuel signal in the field experiments. This suggests that either our fuel measurements were incomprehensive and underestimated the C3 : C4 ratio in the field, or that other processes caused this depletion. Although additional field measurements are needed, our results indicate that C3 vs C4 source ratio estimation is possible with most BB products, albeit with varying uncertainty ranges.