• Energy Research
• 13. Climate action close
• 15. Life on land close
• 8. Economic growth close
• Aurora Universities Network close

The production of palm oil, soy, beef and timber are key drivers of global forest loss. For this reason, over 470 companies involved in the production, processing or distribution of these commodities have issued commitments to eliminate or reduce deforestation from their supply chains. However, the effectiveness of these commitments is uncertain since there is considerable variation in ambition and scope and there are no globally agreed definitions of what constitutes a forest. Many commitments identify high conservation value forests (HCVFs), high carbon stock forests (HCSFs) and forests on tropical peatland as priority areas for conservation. This allows for mapping of the global extent of forest areas classified as such, to achieve an assessment of the area that may be at reduced risk of development if companies comply with their zero deforestation commitments. Depending on the criteria used, the results indicate that between 34% and 74% of global forests qualify as either HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland. However, we found that the total extent of these forest areas varies widely depending on the choice of forest map. Within forests which were not designated as HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland, there is substantial overlap with areas that are highly suitable for agricultural development. Since these areas are unlikely to be protected by zero-deforestation commitments, they may be subject to increased pressure resulting from leakage of areas designated as HCVF, HCSF and tropical peatland forests. Considerable uncertainties around future outcomes remain, since only a proportion of the global market is currently covered by corporate commitments. Further work is needed to map the synergies between corporate commitments and government policies on land use. In addition, standardized criteria for delineating forests covered by the commitments are recommended.

AbstractWe quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.

The city’s built environment and functionality play a crucial role in shaping individual mobility patterns, impacting the overall health and quality of life of its population. Understanding these influences is an important research topic, making it a central focus of this paper. This study aims to identify the factors responsible for promoting healthy mobility behavior. To address this comprehensively, a multidisciplinary empirical survey was developed based on the “Triad”—a model consisting of the built environment, mobility(-behavior), and public health. In addition to the evaluation of socio-demographic factors and activity radius mapping, statistical analyses like multiple linear regression were used. These statistical analyses allow the assessment of the impact of various independent variables on the promotion of healthy mobility behavior within urban settings. The multiple regression shows that the satisfaction with the accessibility of public transport and the sense of safety as a cyclist contribute to explaining the variation of healthy mobility. Furthermore, the satisfaction with walking in the neighborhood and the inhalation of exhaust fumes while walking also seem to have an impact. The results show the link between the Triad and make it clear that mobility planning and urban planning must take a more integrated approach to promote health and simultaneously protect the climate.

AbstractPlant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions—the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic.

Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures adaptation options: (1) snowmaking and (2) diversifying the ski resorts' activities throughout the year. High-resolution climate projections (CH2018) were used to represent climate uncertainty. To improve the coverage of the uncertainty space and account for the climate models' intra-annual variability, we produced new climate realizations using resampling techniques. We demonstrate the importance of five factors, namely climate scenarios (RCPs), intra-annual climate variability, snow processes model, and two adaptation options, in ski resorts survival under a wide range of future scenarios. In six ski resorts, strong but highly variable decreases in the future number of days with good snow conditions for skiing (GSD) are projected. However, despite the different characteristics of the resorts, responses are similar and a shrunk of up to 31, 50, and 62 days in skiing season (Dec-April) is projected for the near-future (2020–2050), mid-future (2050–2080), and far-future (2070–2100), respectively. Similarly, in all cases, the number of days with good conditions for snowmaking (GDSM) will reduce up to 30, 50, and 74 days in the skiing season in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons, respectively. We indicate that all ski resorts will face a reduction of up to 13%, 33%, and 51% of their reference period (1981–2010) revenue from winter skiing activities in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons. Based on the outcomes of the EMA, we identify Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) and determine the adaptation options that ski resorts could implement to avoid tipping points in the future. We highlight the advantages of adaptive planning in a first of its kind application of DMDU techniques to winter tourism. We specify the possible adaptation options ranging from “low revenue diversification and moderate snowmaking” to “high revenue diversification and large snowmaking” and demonstrate when an adaptation action fails and a change to a new plan is needed. By the end of the century, we show that only ski resorts with ski lines above 1800–2000 m elevation will survive regardless of the climate scenarios. Our approach to decision-making is highly flexible and can easily be extended to other ski resorts and account for additional adaptation options.

This article discusses the strategies that sustainable entrepreneurs use to interact with their environment in the Dutch construction industry. The Dutch construction industry is under great pressure to move towards sustainability, and entrepreneurs are believed to be able to play a large role in this transition by introducing new products and new business practices. But how can entrepreneurs prosper in an environment that is not geared up towards such a change? And which strategies do they use to bend conditions in their favor? In this article we make use of the Market and System Failure Framework to analyze the pressures that entrepreneurs are confronted with when introducing sustainable innovations. We recognize that these pressures can be seen as bottlenecks, but that market and system failures can also create entrepreneurial opportunities. We interviewed 16 entrepreneurs in the Dutch construction industry to determine the influences they experienced from their environment and the strategies they use to deal with these. We conclude that we can distinguish between system building and following entrepreneurs, where the former aims to build a new system to challenge the old one, whereas the latter rather makes use of existing structures to build a business. We find that both strategies can be successful and that overall, the entrepreneurs confirm the belief that sustainability on people, planet and transparency aspects, can contribute very well to the long term profitability of the businesses the entrepreneurs are running. These in-depth insights into the influences from the context on the one hand, and the entrepreneurs’ strategic reactions on the other hand, contribute to our understanding of the interactions between entrepreneurs and the system context. This can help us to more effectively stimulate and support innovating entrepreneurs to contribute to the transition towards sustainability.