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Shipping contributes roughly 2.8 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and this is projected to increase in the decades to come. The main regulator of the shipping industry, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), bears the responsibility for developing climate change regulation. Yet the IMO decarbonisation target remains only a 50 % reduction by 2050, and, while regulatory measures have been adopted, these mostly focus on increasing the energy efficiency of ships, not the reduction of total sector GHG emissions. The result is that carbon emissions from shipping continue to rise and are projected to increase by anything up to 50 % by 2050. While many studies are undertaken on the impact of efficiency regulations or the potential for market-based mechanisms, we argue in this piece that missing from this discussion is the potential for a target of full decarbonisation, in line with the IPCC recommendation, allied with a complete ban on the use of fossil fuels in shipping by 2050. This policy would provide certainty to the market and allow industry actors to undertake the transition in a level playing field. Without such a clear signal, carriers and shipowners will transition much more slowly to alternative fuels alongside continued long-term use of fossil fuels. We argue that this position should be actively considered and evaluated, with a tapered timeline to phase out the use of fossil fuels by this date. Instead of focusing research only on the marginal gains of partial policies, scholars and policymakers should prepare plans and evaluate scenarios linked to a clear goal of real zero by 2050.

Like many tropical small-scale fisheries, the French Guiana coastal fishery is characterized by the high fish biodiversity of its ecosystem, the weak selectivity of the fleets exploiting the resources, and the heterogeneity of the vessels in terms of size and fishing techniques. The Rapfish method is used to assess sustainability within 11 fishery systems by means of 27 attributes relating to ecological, economic, social, and technological fields. Overall results indicate an average performance in the weak sustainability range. Comparisons made among the FSs show a gradient of sustainability performance from the western portion of the coast to the eastern portion. Several recommendations are formulated to raise the current “sustainability” status, such as the reduction of discards. This study is used as a complementary tool to the bioeconomic model in order to define a sustainable management plan for the French Guiana coastal fishery.

Abstract The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and bio-monitoring represent challenging issues.

In several Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), rapid population growth and inadequate management of coastal fish habitats and stocks is causing a gap to emerge between the amount of fish recommended for good nutrition and sustainable harvests from coastal fisheries. The effects of ocean warming and acidification on coral reefs, and the effects of climate change on mangrove and seagrass habitats, are expected to widen this gap. To optimise the contributions of small-scale fisheries to food security in PICTs, adaptations are needed to minimise and fill the gap. Key measures to minimise the gap include community-based approaches to: manage catchment vegetation to reduce sedimentation; maintain the structural complexity of fish habitats; allow landward migration of mangroves as sea level rises; sustain recruitment and production of demersal fish by managing ‘source’ populations; and diversify fishing methods to increase catches of species favoured by climate change. The main adaptions to help fill the gap in fish supply include: transferring some fishing effort from coral reefs to tuna and other large pelagic fish by scaling-up the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices; developing fisheries for small pelagic species; and extending the shelf life of catches by improving post-harvest methods. Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of yellowfin tuna, skipjack tuna, wahoo and mahi mahi, indicates that these species are likely to remain abundant enough to implement these adaptations in most PICTs until 2050. We conclude by outlining the policies needed to support the recommended adaptations.

Abstract Background Assessing the historical dynamics of key food web components is crucial to understand how climate change impacts the structure of Arctic marine ecosystems. Most retrospective stable isotopic studies to date assessed potential ecosystem shifts in the Arctic using vertebrate top predators and filter-feeding invertebrates as proxies. However, due to long life histories and specific ecologies, ecosystem shifts are not always detectable when using these taxa. Moreover, there are currently no retrospective stable isotopic studies on various other ecological and taxonomic groups of Arctic biota. To test whether climate-driven shifts in marine ecosystems are reflected in the ecology of short-living mesopredators, ontogenetic changes in stable isotope signatures in chitinous hard body structures were analysed in two abundant squids (Gonatus fabricii and Todarodes sagittatus) from the low latitude Arctic and adjacent waters, collected between 1844 and 2023. Results We detected a temporal increase in diet and habitat-use generalism (= opportunistic choice rather than specialization), trophic position and niche width in G. fabricii from the low latitude Arctic waters. These shifts in trophic ecology matched with the Atlantification of the Arctic ecosystems, which includes increased generalization of food webs and higher primary production, and the influx of boreal species from the North Atlantic as a result of climate change. The Atlantification is especially marked since the late 1990s/early 2000s. The temporal patterns we found in G. fabricii’s trophic ecology were largely unreported in previous Arctic retrospective isotopic ecology studies. Accordingly, T. sagittatus that occur nowadays in the high latitude North Atlantic have a more generalist diet than in the XIXth century. Conclusions Our results suggest that abundant opportunistic mesopredators with short life cycles (such as squids) are good candidates for retrospective ecology studies in the marine ecosystems, and to identify ecosystem shifts driven by climate change. Enhanced generalization of Arctic food webs is reflected in increased diet generalism and niche width in squids, while increased abundance of boreal piscivorous fishes is reflected in squids’ increased trophic position. These findings support opportunism and adaptability in squids, which renders them as potential winners of short-term shifts in Arctic ecosystems.

Climate change is expected to alter the intensity and frequency of upwelling in high productive coastal regions, thus impacting nutrient fluxes, primary productivity and consequently carbon cycling. However, it is unknown how these changes will impact the planktonic (phytoplankton and bacteria) community structure, which affects community respiration (CR) and hence the carbon available for sequestration or transfer to upper trophic levels. Here we present results from a 37-day mesocosm experiment where we examined the response of CR to nutrient additions by simulating upwelling events at different intensities (low, medium, high and extreme) and modes (singular and recurring additions). We also analysed the potential contribution of different plankton size classes and functional groups to CR. The trend in accumulated CR with respect to nutrient fertilisation (total nitrogen added during the experiment) was linear in the two modes. Microplankton (mostly diatoms) and nanoplankton (small flagellates) dominated under extreme upwelling intensities and high CR in both singular and recurring upwelling modes, explaining >65% of the observed variability in CR. In contrast, prokaryotic picoplankton (heterotrophic bacteria and autotrophic cyanobacteria) explained <43% of the variance in CR under the rest of the upwelling intensities and modes tested. Changes in planktonic community structure, while modulating CR variability, would regulate the metabolic balance of the ecosystem, shifting it towards net-heterotrophy when the community is dominated by small heterotrophs and to net-autotrophy when large autotrophs prevail; although depending on the mode in which nutrients are supplied to the system. This shift in the dominance of planktonic organism will hence affect not only CR but also carbon sequestration in upwelling regions