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Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species of the Southern Ocean, impacted by climate change and human exploitation. Understanding how these changes affect the distribution and abundance of krill is crucial for generating projections of change for Southern Ocean ecosystems. Krill growth is an important indicator of habitat suitability and a series of models have been developed and used to examine krill growth potential at different spatial and temporal scales. The available models have been developed using a range of empirical and mechanistic approaches, providing alternative perspectives and comparative analyses of the key processes influencing krill growth. Here we undertake an intercomparison of a suite of the available models to understand their sensitivities to major driving variables. This illustrates that the results are strongly determined by the model structure and technical characteristics, and the data on which they were developed and validated. Our results emphasize the importance of assessing the constraints and requirements of individual krill growth models to ensure their appropriate application. The study also demonstrates the value of the development of alternative modelling approaches to identify key processes affecting the dynamics of krill. Of critical importance for modelling the growth of krill is appropriately assessing and accounting for differences in estimates of food availability resulting from alternative methods of observation. We suggest that an intercomparison approach is particularly valuable in the development and application of models for the assessment of krill growth potential at circumpolar scales and for future projections. As another result of the intercomparison, the implementations of the models used in this study are now publicly available for future use and analyses.

The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.

BACKGROUND There is ample evidence for human alteration of Europe’s regional seas, particularly the enclosed or partly enclosed Baltic, Black, Mediterranean, and North Seas. Accounts of habitat and biodiversity loss, pollution, and the decline of fish stocks in these economically, socially, and ecologically important seas demonstrate unsustainable use of the marine environment. At the same time, there is an insufficient quantity and quality of information to enable purely evidence-based management of Europe’s seas despite this being a declared goal of many decisionmakers; for example, less than 10% of the deep sea has been systematically explored (UNEP 2006). Evidence-based management alone is rarely possible in situations with complex value-laden policy options (Greenhalgh and Russell 2009), and unfortunately, many of the most pervasive problems in the marine environment are “wicked” second-order problems (Jentoft and Chuenpagdee 2009): they are complex in nature and their management will often involve both winners and losers. Solutions to these problems involve less politically attractive, valuebased choices and may require long time lags before tangible results are observed. Fisheries management, habitat and species protection, competition for marine space, and invasive species are all examples of “wicked” problems. These are some of the biggest issues facing Europe’s seas and are the major focus of this article and Special Feature. For the first time in European history, most countries have adopted a common maritime policy (the 2007 Integrated Maritime Policy) and a legally binding environmental directive (the 2008 Marine Strategy Framework Directive [MSFD]). These comprehensive policy vehicles encompass, or closely interface with, more specific measures, such as the recently reformed Common Fisheries Policy, the Water Framework Directive, the Habitats and Birds Directive, and a number of targeted policy instruments that deal with aspects of pollution control and coastal zone management. The overall array of measures has the potential to ensure the sustainable use of Europe’s seas and the restoration of marine environments, but the pathway between the current situation and the implementation of an ecosystem approach to management (the aspiration of the European Commission; see Our Approach to Research) is fraught with “wicked” problems. Science can help society resolve these problems, but in many cases this requires the broad and integrative vision of Odum’s (1971) “macroscope” rather than trying to piece together an ill-fitting jigsaw puzzle of discipline-focused information. This paper and the others in this Special Feature employ a systems approach. We describe the approach, how it can be applied practically, and some of the challenges in making it work. Though the work is based on research on Europe’s seas, it has much wider implications for regional seas throughout the world. OUR APPROACH TO RESEARCH ON MARINE SOCIALECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS The research described in this paper (and Special Feature) was conducted in the framework of the EU-FP7 funded project Knowledge-based Sustainable Management of Europe’s Seas (KnowSeas). The interdisciplinary research spanned 4 years and involved 33 institutions from 16 European countries (KnowSeas 2013). Its primary objective was to develop “a comprehensive scientific knowledge base and practical guidance for the application of the ecosystem approach to the sustainable development of Europe’s regional seas.” Given the knowledge gaps and uncertainties in the way Europe’s marine social-ecological systems function (e.g., unresolved causal links, poorly mapped habitats, nonlinear dynamics), an iterative approach to inquiry was adopted, based partly on the reasoning behind soft systems analysis (e.g., Checkland 2000).

AbstractConservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Under climate change, future species assemblages will be driven by the movements and poleward shift of local species and the arrival of more thermophilic species from lower latitudes. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine communities in the Bay of Biscay, we used the hierarchical filters modelling approach. Models integrated 3 vertical depth layers and considered 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and 2 periods (2041-2050 and 2091-2100) to simulate potential future species distributions. Results predicted potentially suitable future ranges for 163 species as well as future arrivals of non-indigenous southern species. We aggregated these results to map changes in species assemblages. Results revealed that coastal areas would undergo the highest species loss among the Bay of Biscay species, depending on their vertical habitat (benthic, demersal, benthopelagic or pelagic). Benthic and demersal species were projected to experience a westward shift, which would induce a deepening of those species. In contrast, pelagic species were projected to shift northward. The potential ecological niche for half of the studied species, mostly benthic and demersal, was projected to decrease under climate change. In addition, a high rate of southern species arrivals is expected (+28%). Assessment of community composition showed high species replacement within the 0-50 m isobath, driven by the replacement of native species by southern ones. This could lead to a major reorganization of trophic networks and have socio-economic impacts.

On the bathyal slope for continental margins, steep and rocky substrates punctuated with cliffs and collapsing zones are frequently found. As survey and sampling with the classical technics from the sea surface is practically impossible in such an environment, in situ exploration with a submersible allows significant advances in ecology, with implications in paleoenvironment reconstruction. Mixing of material from shallow-water and deep-sea origins into bathyal sedimentation suggests that the so-called "fossil assemblages of outer platform" were frequently misinterpreted. Dense populations of animals closely related to fossil groups which were only considered as relict of the Past ("living fossils") and previously interpreted as shallow-water inhabitants during geological times can be discovered living in such bathyal communities. The role of bathyal ecological niches during global bioevents brings a new vision of the history of life in the Ocean through geological time and has to be further investigated. Examples from cruises monitoring the diving saucer Cyana (SP 3000) in the Bay of Biscay and off New Caledonia are given.

Antarctica and its surrounding islands lie at one extreme of global variation in diversity. Typically, these regions are characterized as being species poor and having simple food webs. Here, we show that terrestrial systems in the region are nonetheless characterized by substantial spatial and temporal variations at virtually all of the levels of the genealogical and ecological hierarchies which have been thoroughly investigated. Spatial variation at the individual and population levels has been documented in a variety of genetic studies, and in mosses it appears that UV-B radiation might be responsible for within-clump mutagenesis. At the species level, modern molecular methods have revealed considerable endemism of the Antarctic biota, questioning ideas that small organisms are likely to be ubiquitous and the taxa to which they belong species poor. At the biogeographic level, much of the relatively small ice-free area of Antarctica remains unsurveyed making analyses difficult. Nonetheless, it is clear that a major biogeographic discontinuity separates the Antarctic Peninsula and continental Antarctica, here named the ‘Gressitt Line’. Across the Southern Ocean islands, patterns are clearer, and energy availability is an important correlate of indigenous and exotic species richness, while human visitor numbers explain much of the variation in the latter too. Temporal variation at the individual level has much to do with phenotypic plasticity, and considerable life-history and physiological plasticity seems to be a characteristic of Antarctic terrestrial species. Environmental unpredictability is an important driver of this trait and has significantly influenced life histories across the region and probably throughout much of the temperate Southern Hemisphere. Rapid climate change-related alterations in the range and abundance of several Antarctic and sub-Antarctic populations have taken place over the past several decades. In many sub-Antarctic locations, these have been exacerbated by direct and indirect effects of invasive alien species. Interactions between climate change and invasion seem set to become one of the most significant conservation problems in the Antarctic. We conclude that despite the substantial body of work on the terrestrial biodiversity of the Antarctic, investigations of interactions between hierarchical levels remain scarce. Moreover, little of the available information is being integrated into terrestrial conservation planning, which lags far behind in this region by comparison with most others.