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High-latitude reefs support unique ecological communities occurring at the biogeographic boundaries between tropical and temperate marine ecosystems. Due to their lower ambient temperatures, they are regarded as potential refugia for tropical species shifting poleward due to rising sea temperatures. However, acute warming events can cause rapid shifts in the composition of high-latitude reef communities, including range contractions of temperate macroalgae and bleaching-induced mortality in corals. While bleaching has been reported on numerous high-latitude reefs, post-bleaching trajectories of benthic communities are poorly described. Consequently, the longer-term effects of thermal anomalies on high-latitude reefs are difficult to predict. Here, we use an autonomous underwater vehicle to conduct repeated surveys of three 625 m(2) plots on a coral-dominated high-latitude reef in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, over a four-year period spanning a large-magnitude thermal anomaly. Quantification of benthic communities revealed high coral cover (>70%, comprising three main morphospecies) prior to the bleaching event. Plating Montipora was most susceptible to bleaching, but in the plot where it was most abundant, coral cover did not change significantly because of post-bleaching increases in branching Acropora. In the other two plots, coral cover decreased while macroalgal cover increased markedly. Overall, coral cover declined from 73% to 59% over the course of the study, while macroalgal cover increased from 11% to 24%. The significant differences in impacts and post-bleaching trajectories among plots underline the importance of understanding the underlying causes of such variation to improve predictions of how climate change will affect reefs, especially at high-latitudes.

AbstractHabitat structural complexity is a key factor shaping marine communities. However, accurate methods for quantifying structural complexity underwater are currently lacking. Loss of structural complexity is linked to ecosystem declines in biodiversity and resilience. We developed new methods using underwater stereo‐imagery spanning 4 years (2010–2013) to reconstruct 3D models of coral reef areas and quantified both structural complexity at two spatial resolutions (2.5 and 25 cm) and benthic community composition to characterize changes after an unprecedented thermal anomaly on the west coast of Australia in 2011. Structural complexity increased at both resolutions in quadrats (4 m2) that bleached, but not those that did not bleach. Changes in complexity were driven by species‐specific responses to warming, highlighting the importance of identifying small‐scale dynamics to disentangle ecological responses to disturbance. We demonstrate an effective, repeatable method for quantifying the relationship among community composition, structural complexity and ocean warming, improving predictions of the response of marine ecosystems to environmental change.

AbstractThe combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate‐driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf‐forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low‐latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat‐forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs.

Marine species, such as corals and kelp, are responding to climate change by altering their distributions. Microbial biofilms underpin key processes that affect the establishment, maintenance, and function of these dominant habitat-formers. Climate-mediated changes to microbial biofilms can therefore strongly influence species' range shifts. Here, we review emerging research on the interactions between benthic biofilms and habitat-formers and identify two key areas of interaction where climate change can impact this dynamic: (i) via direct effects on biofilm composition, and (ii) via impacts on the complex feedback loops which exist between the biofilm microbes and habitat-forming organisms. We propose that these key interactions will be fundamental in driving the speed and extent of tropicalisation of coastal ecosystems under climate change.

AbstractAimClimate change is redistributing species globally, resulting in altered community structures and ecosystem functioning. The current paradigm is that species should track temperature isoclines along latitudinal and depth gradients to remain within their thermal niches. However, the many exceptions to this rule point to complex ecological and environmental processes often overlooked in statistical models predicting species redistributions. We tested the contributions of natural versus anthropogenic climate change to the long‐term spatio‐temporal dynamics of assemblages of range‐shifting tropical fishes at the leading edge of redistribution fronts.LocationEast coast of Australia.TaxonTropical coral‐reef fishes.MethodsWe analysed 16 years (2003–2018) of tropical species occurrences at two temperate locations using traditional diversity metrics (richness, accumulation curves and β‐diversity). We also quantified the role of primary environmental covariates and estimated species associations using joint species distribution models.ResultsWe reveal that tropical species richness has increased in this temperate ecosystem over time. Furthermore, we show that the richness of tropical vagrant species increased with the sea‐surface temperature experienced by both local vagrants and their putative source populations at the southern Great Barrier Reef, which accounted for 23.1% and 22.1% of the explained variance, respectively. We also detected a signal from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, as species turnover and richness peaked during the strong La Niña event of 2010–2011.Main conclusionsWhile the increases in ocean temperature and strength of the surface ocean current due to anthropogenic climate change are gradually favouring the poleward redistribution of tropical species, natural climatic oscillations can have a strong additive effect by rapidly modifying the pool of incoming species and potentially disrupting local communities.

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change’.