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ABSTRACTWind power forecasts are useful tools for power load balancing, energy trading and wind farm operations. Long range monthly‐to‐seasonal forecasting allows the prediction of departures from average weather conditions beyond traditional weather forecast timescales, months in advance. However, it has not yet been demonstrated how these forecasts can be optimally transformed to wind power. The predictable part of a seasonal forecast is for longer monthly averages, not daily averages, but to use monthly averages misses information on variability. To investigate, here a model relating average weather conditions to average wind power output was built, based on the relationship between instantaneous wind speed and power production and incorporating fluctuations in air density due to temperature and wind speed variability. Observed monthly average power output from UK stations was used to validate the model and to investigate the optimal temporal resolution for the data used to drive the model. Multiple simulations of wind power were performed based on reanalysis data, making separate simulations based on monthly, daily and sub‐daily averages, using a distribution defined by the mean across the period to incorporate information on variability. Basing the simulation on monthly averages alone is sub‐optimal: using daily average winds gives the highest correlation against observations. No improvement over this is gained by using sub‐daily averages or including temperature variability. This signifies that to transform seasonal forecasts to wind power a compromise must be made between using the daily averages with debatable skill and the more predictable monthly averages, losing information on day‐to‐day variability.

AbstractOcean warming is altering the biogeographical distribution of marine organisms. In the tropics, rising sea surface temperatures are restructuring coral reef communities with sensitive species being lost. At the biogeographical divide between temperate and tropical communities, warming is causing macroalgal forest loss and the spread of tropical corals, fishes and other species, termed “tropicalization”. A lack of field research into the combined effects of warming and ocean acidification means there is a gap in our ability to understand and plan for changes in coastal ecosystems. Here, we focus on the tropicalization trajectory of temperate marine ecosystems becoming coral‐dominated systems. We conducted field surveys and in situ transplants at natural analogues for present and future conditions under (i) ocean warming and (ii) both ocean warming and acidification at a transition zone between kelp and coral‐dominated ecosystems. We show that increased herbivory by warm‐water fishes exacerbates kelp forest loss and that ocean acidification negates any benefits of warming for range extending tropical corals growth and physiology at temperate latitudes. Our data show that, as the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming ratchet up, marine coastal ecosystems lose kelp forests but do not gain scleractinian corals. Ocean acidification plus warming leads to overall habitat loss and a shift to simple turf‐dominated ecosystems, rather than the complex coral‐dominated tropicalized systems often seen with warming alone. Simplification of marine habitats by increased CO2 levels cascades through the ecosystem and could have severe consequences for the provision of goods and services.

L'aquaculture joue un rôle important dans la sécurité alimentaire et fournit des moyens de subsistance et des emplois à des millions de personnes dans les communautés côtières du monde entier. Cependant, le secteur aquacole en pleine croissance a également suscité des débats sur sa durabilité écologique à long terme, sa viabilité économique, les inégalités sociales potentielles et les problèmes de gouvernance. Nous avons étudié les défis et les opportunités perçus pour parvenir à une aquaculture durable du crabe de boue dans les régions côtières tropicales en utilisant l'étude de cas des fermes côtières de crabe de boue dans l'Andhra Pradesh, en Inde. Sur la base des perceptions et des données financières indicatives d'un échantillon de parties prenantes, nous avons étudié les résultats économiques potentiels dans différents scénarios représentant des niveaux de rendement, des facteurs de risque et des périodes de projet variables. Les principaux risques identifiés par les parties prenantes étaient associés à l'approvisionnement limité en graines de crabe de boue et au manque d'accès aux programmes de soutien gouvernementaux et non gouvernementaux. Il n'y a pas de tampons financiers, donc des épidémies majeures ou des conditions météorologiques extrêmes causées par le changement climatique entraîneraient une perte de moyens de subsistance. Cet article met également en évidence le facteur le plus critique déterminant le niveau de succès de l'élevage du crabe de boue étant le taux de survie du crabe qui est influencé par une variété de facteurs, y compris l'augmentation de la température de la surface de la mer. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que l'élevage de crabes de boue à petite échelle comporte moins de risques et une plus grande flexibilité que l'élevage de crabes de boue à grande échelle. Il pourrait s'agir d'une entreprise économiquement durable et servir d'outil de réduction de la pauvreté dans les pays en développement si un soutien et une formation en matière de microfinance sont disponibles. La acuicultura desempeña un papel importante en la seguridad alimentaria y proporciona medios de subsistencia y empleo a millones de personas en las comunidades costeras de todo el mundo. Sin embargo, el creciente sector de la acuicultura también ha creado debates en torno a su sostenibilidad ecológica a largo plazo, viabilidad económica, posibles desigualdades sociales y problemas de gobernanza. Investigamos los desafíos y oportunidades percibidos para lograr una acuicultura sostenible de cangrejo de fango en las regiones costeras tropicales utilizando el estudio de caso de las granjas costeras de cangrejo de fango en Andhra Pradesh, India. Con base en las percepciones y los datos financieros indicativos de una muestra de partes interesadas, investigamos los posibles resultados económicos en diferentes escenarios que representan diferentes niveles de rendimiento, factores de riesgo y períodos de tiempo del proyecto. Los principales riesgos identificados por las partes interesadas se asociaron con el suministro limitado de semillas de cangrejo de fango y la falta de acceso a esquemas de apoyo gubernamentales y no gubernamentales. No hay amortiguadores financieros, por lo tanto, los grandes brotes de enfermedades o las condiciones climáticas extremas causadas por el cambio climático conducirían a la pérdida de los medios de vida. Este documento también destaca que el factor más crítico que determina el nivel de éxito del cultivo de cangrejo de fango es la tasa de supervivencia del cangrejo, que está influenciada por una variedad de factores, incluido el aumento de la temperatura de la superficie del mar. Los resultados de este estudio muestran que el cultivo de cangrejo de fango a pequeña escala tiene menos riesgos y una mayor flexibilidad que el cultivo de cangrejo de fango a gran escala. Podría ser una empresa económicamente sostenible y servir como una herramienta para el alivio de la pobreza en los países en desarrollo si se dispone de apoyo y capacitación en microfinanzas. Aquaculture plays a significant role in food security and provides livelihoods and employment for millions of people among coastal communities worldwide. However, the growing aquaculture sector has also created debates around its long-term ecological sustainability, economic viability, potential social inequalities and governance issues. We investigated the perceived challenges and opportunities to achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions by using the case study of coastal mud crab farms in Andhra Pradesh, India. Informed by perceptions and indicative financial data from a sample of stakeholders we investigated the potential economic outcomes under different scenarios representing varying yield levels, risk factors and project time periods. The main risks identified by the stakeholders were associated with the limited supply of mud crab seeds and the lack of access to governmental and non-governmental support schemes. There are no financial buffers, therefore major disease outbreaks or extreme weather conditions caused by climate change would lead to a loss of livelihoods. This paper also highlights the most critical factor determining the level of success of mud crab farming being the crab survival rate which is influenced by a variety of factors including increasing sea surface temperature. The results of this study show that small-scale mud crab farming has fewer risks and higher flexibility involved than large-scale mud crab farming. It could be an economically sustainable enterprise and serve as a tool for poverty alleviation in developing countries if microfinance support and training are available. تلعب تربية الأحياء المائية دورًا مهمًا في الأمن الغذائي وتوفر سبل العيش وفرص العمل لملايين الأشخاص بين المجتمعات الساحلية في جميع أنحاء العالم. ومع ذلك، فإن قطاع تربية الأحياء المائية المتنامي قد خلق أيضًا مناقشات حول استدامته البيئية طويلة الأجل، وقابليته الاقتصادية، وعدم المساواة الاجتماعية المحتملة، وقضايا الحوكمة. لقد حققنا في التحديات والفرص المتصورة لتحقيق تربية مستدامة لسرطان البحر الطيني في المناطق الساحلية الاستوائية باستخدام دراسة حالة لمزارع سرطان البحر الطيني الساحلية في ولاية أندرا براديش، الهند. استنادًا إلى التصورات والبيانات المالية الإرشادية من عينة من أصحاب المصلحة، قمنا بالتحقيق في النتائج الاقتصادية المحتملة في ظل سيناريوهات مختلفة تمثل مستويات عائد متفاوتة وعوامل خطر وفترات زمنية للمشروع. ارتبطت المخاطر الرئيسية التي حددها أصحاب المصلحة بمحدودية المعروض من بذور سرطان البحر الطيني وعدم الوصول إلى خطط الدعم الحكومية وغير الحكومية. لا توجد حواجز مالية، وبالتالي فإن تفشي الأمراض الرئيسية أو الظروف الجوية القاسية الناجمة عن تغير المناخ ستؤدي إلى فقدان سبل العيش. تسلط هذه الورقة الضوء أيضًا على العامل الأكثر أهمية الذي يحدد مستوى نجاح زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني وهو معدل بقاء سرطان البحر الذي يتأثر بمجموعة متنوعة من العوامل بما في ذلك زيادة درجة حرارة سطح البحر. تظهر نتائج هذه الدراسة أن زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني على نطاق صغير تنطوي على مخاطر أقل ومرونة أعلى من زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني على نطاق واسع. يمكن أن يكون مشروعًا مستدامًا اقتصاديًا وأن يكون بمثابة أداة للتخفيف من حدة الفقر في البلدان النامية إذا توفر الدعم والتدريب في مجال التمويل الأصغر.

Research to date has suggested that both individual marine species and ecological processes are expected to exhibit diverse responses to the environmental effects of climate change. Evolutionary responses can occur on rapid (ecological) timescales, and yet studies typically do not consider the role that adaptive evolution will play in modulating biological responses to climate change. Investigations into such responses have typically been focused at particular biological levels (e.g., cellular, population, community), often lacking interactions among levels. Since all levels of biological organisation are sensitive to global climate change, there is a need to elucidate how different processes and hierarchical interactions will influence species fitness. Therefore, predicting the responses of communities and populations to global change will require multidisciplinary efforts across multiple levels of hierarchy, from the genetic and cellular to communities and ecosystems. Eventually, this may allow us to establish the role that acclimatisation and adaptation will play in determining marine community structures in future scenarios.

Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were <31 years, implying that measured environmental variables indeed shaped populations and community. An Indo-Pacific-wide model suggests reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.