• Energy Research
• 11. Sustainability close
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Abstract Socio-technical transformations towards low-carbon energy systems are on the way in developed countries. Conversely, developing countries tend to be locked in fossil fuels and foster coal-based energy structures, emphasizing reliable and cost-effective energy provision and sidelining environmental concerns. In this study, we identified and analysed the predominant factors related to coal-based power generation in Bangladesh. We applied a mixed-method approach, initially conducting a systematic literature review and, subsequently, semi-structured expert interviews to identify and validate relevant factors. We then assessed their relative importance using an Analytical Hierarchy Process based on expert judgments. The results of this assessment reveal that socio-economic aspects and environmental issues scored highest, while technological aspects and sector regulations were considered to be less relevant for large-scale coal power implementation. We conclude that future energy policies created in Bangladesh will need to use appropriate legal instruments and address issues such as human displacement and resettlement, low levels of public acceptance, health hazards and environmental pollution. Participative policy frameworks should be deployed in coal plant projects, and active monitoring systems are necessary to reduce the negative consequences associated with increased electrification and energy consumption. To address foreseeable structural challenges, it furthermore will be crucial to explore sustainable alternatives.

In this paper we investigate the prospects for the large-scale use of low-emission energy technologies in Africa. Many African countries have recently experienced substantial economic growth and aim at fulfilling much of the energy needs associated with continuing along paths of economic expansion by exploiting their large domestic potentials of renewable forms of energy. Important benefits of the abundant renewable energy resources in Africa are that they allow for stimulating economic development, increasing energy access and alleviating poverty, while simultaneously avoiding emissions of greenhouse gases. In this study we analyse what the likely energy demand in Africa could be until 2050, and inspect multiple scenarios for the concomitant levels of greenhouse gas emissions and emission intensities. We use the TIAM-ECN model for our study, which enawbbles detailed energy systems research through a technology-rich cost-minimisation procedure. The results from our analysis fully support an Africa-led effort to substantially enhance the use of the continent's renewable energy potential. But they suggest that the current aim of achieving 300 GW of additional renewable electricity generation capacity by 2030 is perhaps unrealistic, even given high GDP and population growth: we find figures that are close to half this level. On the other hand, we find evidence for leap-frogging opportunities, by which renewable energy options rather than fossil fuels could constitute the cost-optimal solution to fulfil most of Africa's growing energy requirements. An important benefit of leap-frogging is that it avoids an ultimately expensive fossil fuels lock-in that would fix the carbon footprint of the continent until at least the middle of the century.

Abstract Increasing energy efficiency of buildings by renovation and thermal insulation is widely seen as means to lessen energy demand and to increase thermal comfort. However, costs of renovation and the dangers of displacing low income, energy poor households due to rent increases are generally not addressed in literature on benefits of thermal insulation. In an exemplary manner for a selected case study in Austria this article investigates if reduced energy costs due to thermal insulation can offset rent increases. Results clearly show that this approach will not work for renting households at risk of poverty as their energy consumption mostly is already extremely limited before renovation (prebound effect), thus no further reduction can be expected after renovation as energy poor households tend to use renovation benefits for increased comfort rather than reduced consumption (rebound effect). As a consequence we propose the design of funding schemes to identify and prioritize socio-economic hot spots in housing stock.

Implementation of some of the articles of the Kyoto Protocol will require rules for accounting and for defining baselines against which reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions, or enhancement of greenhouse-gas removals, are to be measured. Project accounting needs to provide incentives to ensure that the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is served and that the interests of all participating parties are respected. To establish the emission reduction achievements of activities is complex as it is inherently very difficult to define the counterfatctuel baseline. Here, we articulate four basic principles — accuracy, comprehensiveness, conservativeness and practicability — that can be used to guide the construction of baselines for greenhouse-gas mitigation projects. The overall aim is to have accurate, comprehensive, and conservative baselines; but this aim needs to be balanced to yield baselines that are as simple as possible, can be practically implemented, and provide incentives to fulfill the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC.

Energy efficiency measures are manifold in all economic sectors. These measures can be pictured by a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) which is a common way to show CO2-e abatement potential and its related costs in various fields. In this paper, we calculated the marginal CO2-e abatement cost curve for Austria for the first time to fulfill the need for country specific cost curves. One of the strengths of such curves lies in their ability to highlight that energy efficiency measures can even have negative abatement costs. The weaknesses consist of neglecting a change in energy prices, the rate of diffusion, and compatibility with existing technologies. By using a static bottom-up approach we constructed the MACC for four economic sectors (household, service, transport, energy) and found a national mitigation potential of 45.4 million tons CO2-e. The results further show that even with the measures with negative abatement costs it is possible to make the necessary CO2-e mitigation to fulfill the Kyoto Protocol. The conclusions emphasize that the curve makes a contribution to overcome one of the barriers of implementation by providing enhanced information on energy efficiency measures and its costs.

Abstract Energy transitions are high on political agendas. From a practical viewpoint, community approaches are deemed essential in order to transition from a predominantly centralized energy supply to a decentralized one, and to exploit the potential of renewable energies. In this paper, I discuss how the emergence of community-based energy projects can be analyzed from an institutional perspective. In this context, a ‘community’ is treated as an individual institutional order that shapes decisions. I examine how community structures the implementation of biogas cooperatives in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol in Northern Italy. My findings suggest that ‘community spirit’, a cooperative tradition, and the norms of locality and responsibility are central drivers behind the emergence and constitution of biogas cooperatives. Not only do these institutional features of community influence the decision concerning which farmers are in or out but also plant location and scale. I argue that ‘community’ is a necessary analytical category for understanding community energy.

Surrogate models are an important part of building energy labelling programs, but these models still present low accuracy, particularly in cooling-dominated climates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using an artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the accuracy of surrogate models for labelling purposes. An ANN was applied to model the building stock of a city in Brazil, based on the results of extensive simulations using the high-resolution building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out to evaluate the behaviour of the ANN model, and the variations in the best and worst performance for several typologies were analysed in relation to variations in the input parameters and building characteristics. The results obtained indicate that an ANN can represent the interaction between input and output data for a vast and diverse building stock. Sensitivity analysis showed that no single input parameter can be identified as the main factor responsible for the building energy performance. The uncertainty associated with several parameters plays a major role in assessing building energy performance, together with the facade area and the shell-to-floor ratio. The results of this study may have a profound impact as ANNs could be applied in the future to define regulations in many countries, with positive effects on optimizing the energy consumption.

Abstract Resilience has become a prominent concept to understand system vulnerabilities and flexible ways of adapting to crises. Recently, it gained importance in discussions about the possible peak in oil production (peak oil) and its consequences, which might affect economic performance, social well-being and political stability, and thus also the energy transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper presents a new way of measuring resilience as absolute resilience related to a best practice-model of a resilient society. The resilience model is grounded in explicit theoretical assumptions. All indicators are justified by theoretical and empirical arguments. We present a case study of Austrian municipalities and broader-scale spatial types, which were defined according to their degree of urbanization. The mean resilience of Austrian municipalities is moderate, the difference between resilience values of municipalities is small. Significant differences between spatial types exist. Higher resilience is displayed by less urbanized types due to a higher share of agricultural activities and a more favorable level of GDP per capita. Austria has considerable latitude to improve resilience. Corresponding policies should target resilience components with the lowest values first. A sole focus on regionalization is not recommended. These conclusions are applicable to OECD countries in general.