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Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modelling for the period 2041–2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < 0.05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience non-significant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation. This dataset contains raw data outputs for Teo et al. (2022), Global Change Biology. Please see the published paper for further details on methods. For enquiries, please contact the corresponding authors: hcteo [at] u.nus.edu or lianpinkoh [at] nus.edu.sg.  Shapefiles can be opened with any GIS program such as ArcMap or QGIS. CSV files can be opened with any spreadsheet program such as Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.HighResMIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-CM6-1-HR.control-1950' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-CM6-1-HR climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: prescribed monthly fields computed by TACTIC_v2 scheme, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T359; Gaussian Reduced with 181724 grid points in total distributed over 360 latitude circles (with 720 grid points per latitude circle between 32.2degN and 32.2degS reducing to 18 grid points per latitude circle at 89.6degN and 89.6degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: OZL_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA025, tripolar primarily 1/4deg; 1442 x 1050 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.C4MIP.CSIRO.ACCESS-ESM1-5' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth System Model Version 1.5 climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: CLASSIC (v1.0), atmos: HadGAM2 (r1.1, N96; 192 x 145 longitude/latitude; 38 levels; top level 39255 m), land: CABLE2.4, ocean: ACCESS-OM2 (MOM5, tripolar primarily 1deg; 360 x 300 longitude/latitude; 50 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: WOMBAT (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE4.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia (CSIRO) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

In Cameroon, as in other countries of the Congo basin region, policy processes and activities related to climate change have been hitherto geared mostly towards mitigation and related questions, with limited concern about adaptation issues. However, the increasing vulnerability of Cameroon to climate variability and change makes adaptation significant to its national climate-change policy. Nonetheless, it remains a challenge to make both adaptation and mitigation occupy the same policy space in Cameroon. This paper builds partly on studies carried out in two community forest carbon initiatives in the southern rainforest of Cameroon. It also argues, supported by existing literature on adaptation and mitigation, that mitigation activities have the potential to produce adaptation outcomes; a situation which avoids duplication of efforts and waste of financial and technical resources, if synergetic options are anticipated and planned. However, whether such integrated approaches succeed and are subsequently reflected in national-level climate policy depends on how actors across different sectors and at different levels engage and carry out their roles. The paper discusses these roles and how they can support each other in pursuing integrated initiatives – a context which is vital for Cameroon.

Summary Past climatic fluctuations have played a major role in shaping the current plant biodiversity. Although harbouring an exceptional biota, oceanic islands have received little attention in studies on species demographic history and past vegetation patterns. We investigated the impact of past climatic changes on the effective population size of a tree (Coffea mauritiana) that is endemic to Reunion Island, located in the south‐western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Demographic changes were inferred using summary statistics calculated from genomic data. Using ecological niche modelling and the current distribution of genetic diversity, the paleodistribution of the species was also assessed. A reduction in the effective population size of C. mauritiana during the last glaciation maximum was inferred. The distribution of the species was reduced on the western side of the island, due to low rainfall. It appeared that a major reduction in rainfall and a slight temperature decrease prevailed in the SWIO. Our findings indicated that analyses on the current patterns of intraspecific genetic variations can efficiently contribute to past climatic changes characterisation in remote islands. Identifying area with higher resilience in oceanic islands could provide guidance in forest management and conservation faced to the global climate change.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-ESM2-1.amip' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: TACTIC_v2, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: REPROBUS-C_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), ocnBgchem: Pisces 2.s, seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.