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Abstract The residential sector accounts for most of energy-consumption in developing countries in the form of traditional energy. The use of commercial energy is nominal and confined mostly to urban areas where fuelwood is already monetized. A model, based on an end-use/process analysis approach, is developed on a spreadsheet, which is capable of simulating scenarios to address issues of increasing traditional energy-demand caused by population growth, sustainable supply capacity of the existing energy resources, potential for development of new and renewable energy resources, technology. This paper is divided into two parts: general energy issues and the modelling approach, and the application of this approach to Nepal in the context of fuelwood-supply sustainability.

Abstract To achieve optimal generation from a number of mixed power plants by minimizing the operational cost while meeting the electricity demand is a challenging optimization problem. When the system involves uncertain renewable energy, the problem has become harder with its operated generators may suffer a technical problem of ramp-rate violations during the periodic implementation in subsequent days. In this paper, a scenario-based dynamic economic dispatch model is proposed for periodically implementing its resources on successive days with uncertain wind speed and load demand. A set of scenarios is generated based on realistic data to characterize the random nature of load demand and wind forecast errors. In order to solve the uncertain dispatch problems, a self-adaptive differential evolution and real-coded genetic algorithm with a new heuristic are proposed. The heuristic is used to enhance the convergence rate by ensuring feasible load allocations for a given hour under the uncertain behavior of wind speed and load demand. The proposed frameworks are successfully applied to two deterministic and uncertain DED benchmarks, and their simulation results are compared with each other and state-of-the-art algorithms which reveal that the proposed method has merit in terms of solution quality and reliability.

Abstract This paper is based on dynamic optimization methodology to investigate the economic energy efficiency issues in developing countries. The paper introduces some definitions about energy efficiency both in economics and physics, and establishes a quantitative way for measuring the economic energy efficiency. The linkage between economic energy efficiency, energy consumption and other macroeconomic variables is demonstrated primarily. Using the methodology of dynamic optimization, a maximum problem of economic energy efficiency over time, which is subjected to the extended Solow growth model and instantaneous investment rate, is modelled. In this model, the energy consumption is set as a control variable and the capital is regarded as a state variable. The analytic solutions can be derived and the diagrammatic analysis provides saddle-point equilibrium. A numerical simulation based on China is also presented; meanwhile, the optimal paths of investment and energy consumption can be drawn. The dynamic optimization encourages governments in developing countries to pursue higher economic energy efficiency by controlling the energy consumption and regulating the investment state as it can conserve energy without influencing the achievement of steady state in terms of Solow model. If that, a sustainable development will be achieved.

Abstract To guarantee the space heating in the heating season, conventional combined heat and power (CHP) plants operate in a heat-controlled operation mode, resulting in restricted peak-shaving ability (PSA). To improve the CHP plant’s PSA, a novel solar aided CHP (SA-CHP) system is proposed and simulated in this paper. In the new system, solar heat could be flexibly used to generate power or to supply heat according to the heating and power demands, thereby realizing the heat-power decoupling. A set of models for the SA-CHP system is developed and validated. The PSA, the standard coal consumption (SCC) and the techno-economic performances of a 330 MWe SA-CHP system are comprehensively analyzed in this paper. The results show that the SA-CHP system can significantly improve (up to double) the PSA compared with the CHP plant under the same rated heating power. The feasible operation region area of the SA-CHP system is 74.7% larger than that of the CHP plant. The annual SCC of the SA-CHP system are 17378.23 t less than that of the CHP plant. The net annual revenue of the SA-CHP system is $2.24 M. Besides, techno-economic performances of SA-CHP systems with two different heat storage systems are compared.

Abstract Global environmental change is driven by food production. Biogas from food waste is a better source of clean energy. Ghana’s energy strategy targets a 10% increase in renewable energy and modern biomass in the national electricity generation mix. Studies on the assessment of electricity generation potential and economic feasibility of biogas to electricity projects in Ghana’s major cities are scarcely available. This study assesses the electricity generation potential of biogas from food waste through anaerobic digestion technology. The municipal solid waste generation potential of Accra and Kumasi was estimated from 2020 to 2039. The potential theoretical methane yield from food waste was calculated using Buswell’s equation. The study analyzed anaerobic digestion projects’ economic feasibility using the total life cycle cost, net present value, investment payback period, levelized cost of energy, and internal rate of return methods. A sensitivity analysis based on two scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) was performed to analyze the influence of changes in the composition of food waste, per capita waste generation rate, population growth rate, per capita GDP growth rate, discount rate, capacity factor, electricity generation efficiency, waste collection efficiency, and methane production potential on the economic feasibility of the projects. The main findings indicate that the amount of waste generation in Accra during the project life cycle is 899,000 t/y to 3,359,000 t/y, while that of Kumasi is 915,000 t/y to 3,159,000 t/y. The power generation potential of the project in Accra ranges from 80.43 to 300.49 GWh/y, and in Kumasi ranges from 60.63 to 209.31 GWh/y. Economically, the project is feasible in Accra and Kumasi. The net present value of the project in Accra and Kumasi is $217,800,000 and $156,100,000. The sensitivity analysis shows that the project is infeasible in all the cities with a discount rate exceeding 20%. When the discount rate exceeds 20%, the project becomes highly infeasible in Accra compared to Kumasi. This study will offer itself as scientific guidance for investment in biogas to electricity projects in Ghana’s cities.

Abstract Forecasting the future price of crude oil, which has an important role in the global economy, is considered as a hot matter for both investment companies and governments. However, forecasting the price of crude oil with high precision is indeed a challenging task because of the nonlinear dynamics of the crude oil time series, including chaotic behavior and inherent fractality. In this study, a new forecasting model based on support vector regression (SVR) with a wrapper-based feature selection approach using multi-objective optimization technique is developed to deal with this challenge. In our model, features based on technical indicators such as simple moving average (SMA), exponential moving average (EMA), and Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) are utilized. SMA, EMA, and KAMA indicators are obtained from Brent crude oil closing prices under different parameters. The features based on SMA and EMA indicators are formed by changing the period values between 3 and 10. The features based on the KAMA indicator are obtained by changing the efficiency ratio (ER) period value, which is considered as fractality efficiency, between 3 and 10. The features are selected by the wrapper-based approach consisting of multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) and radial basis function based SVR (RBFSVR) techniques considering both the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Theil’s U values. The obtained empirical results show that the proposed forecasting model can capture the nonlinear properties of crude oil time series, and that better forecasting performance can be obtained in terms of precision and volatility than the other current forecasting models.

Abstract To understand the relationship between green building energy performance and regional commercial estates, this study analysed Australia’s Commercial Building Disclosure (CBD) program database. This database discloses the annual energy use intensity (EUI) and the corresponding energy rating (1–6 stars) of 2460 National Australian Built Environment Rating System (NABERS) certified office buildings. The study selected for analysis Australia’s six largest cities and then used panel data regression, where commercial estate factors (total stock of office buildings, vacancy rate, average gross face rent, and government incentives such as financial support) served as independent variables and the EUI was the dependent variable. The p-values of all the models are below 0.05, indicating that the results are statistically significant. Results showed the commercial real estate factors were significantly related to the EUI for buildings with a rating of 1 star and above. The correlation between EUI and commercial real estate factors became less strong with the rating level increasing. The effect of ‘green building’ branding makes the office buildings more attractive with regard to tenancy and their energy performance more reflective of the variation in the commercial real estate market. This study is a frontrunner in contextualising green building energy performance and ratings in the context of regional commercial estate, and the regression models employed in the study could be used to define regional baselines for energy ratings in future studies.

The present work examines analytically the effects of radiation heat transfer on magnetohydrodynamic mixed convection through a vertical channel packed with fluid saturated porous substances. First and Second Laws of thermodynamics are applied to analyze the problem. Special attention is given to entropy generation characteristics and their dependency on the various dimensionless parameters, i.e., Hartmann number (Ha), Plank number (Pl), Richardson number (Ri), group parameter (Br/II), etc. A steady-laminar flow of an incompressible-viscous fluid is assumed flowing through the channel with negligible inertia effect. The fluid is further considered as an optically thin gas and electrically conducting. Governing equations in Cartesian coordinates are solved analytically after reasonable simplifications. Expressions for velocity, temperature, local, and average entropy generation rates are analytically derived and presented graphically.

Abstract Using a panel data analysis of a newly developed sample of monthly data by state for January 2005 to December 2019, we estimate a series of error correction models for US residential electricity demand postulated to move with electricity price, natural gas price, income, and weather. Our key findings are as follows. First, the short-run own-price elasticity estimate is not statistically different from zero (p-value > 0.8). Second, the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates are −0.054 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.019 (p-value = 0.000) under the double-log specification, smaller in size than the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates of −0.120 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.069 (p-value = 0.000) under the linear demand specification. Third, price elasticity estimates have been shrinking in size over time. Fourth, erroneously ignoring the panel data's cross-sectional dependence tends to more than double the long-run price elasticity estimates. Fifth, mismatching the timing of price information's availability and consumption decision leads to anomalous price elasticity estimates. Finally, our new empirics' key takeaway of low price-responsiveness supports continuation of energy efficiency standards and demand-side management programs.