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This data set contains the essential files used as input for the analysis, intermediate files produced during the analysis, and the key output fields. The code of the analysis is available here: https://github.com/VUB-HYDR/2021_Thiery_etal_Science Input fields: - isimip.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. This data set is very similar to the data presented in Lange et al. (2020 Earth's Future) but includes selected additional impact models and scenarios (notably RCP8.5). This data set also includes the gridded population data. - GMT_50pc_manualoutput_4pathways.xlsx: Global mean temperature anomaly trajectories from the IPCC SR15 - wcde_data.xlsx: postprocessed cohort size data originally obtained from the Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer. - WPP2019_MORT_F16_1_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_BY_AGE_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx: Postprocessed life expectancy data originally obtained from the UNited Nations World Population Programme Intermediate files *only use if you're interested in reproducing the results*: - workspaces.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. These matlab workspaces contain data on land area annually exposed to extreme events which is stored in a format designed to speed up the analysis. - mw_isimip.mat: ISIMIP2 simulations metadata (e.g. model, gcm and rcp name per simulation) - mw_countries.mat: information on the countries used in the analysis (e.g. border polygon coordinates) - mw_exposure.mat: age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic_coldwaves.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure to coldwaves computed from the ISIMIP and population data Output of the analysis: - mw_output.mat: Matlab workspace containing all variables produced during the analysis presented in thepaper. Use this file if you wish to look up certain numbers or want to use the study results for further analysis.

Methane emissions from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in global warming, which is particularly affecting high-latitude ecosystems. As major contributors to methane emissions in natural environments, the microbial communities involved in methane production and oxidation deserve a special attention. Microbial diversity and activity are expected to be strongly affected by the already observed (and further predicted) temperature increase in high-latitude ecosystems, eventually resulting in disrupted feedback methane emissions. The METHANOBASE project has been designed to investigate the intricate relations between microbial diversity and methane emissions in Arctic, Subarctic and Subantarctic ecosystems, under natural (baseline) conditions and in response to simulated temperature increments. We report here a small subunit ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) analysis of lake, peatland and mineral soil ecosystems.

Aim Despite an increasing number of studies highlighting the impacts of climate change on boreal species, the main factors that will drive changes in species assemblages remain ambiguous. We study how species community composition would change following anthropogenic and natural disturbances. We determine the main drivers of assemblage dissimilarity for bird and beetle communities. Location Côte-Nord, Québec, Canada. Methods We quantify two climate-induced pathways based on direct and indirect effects on species occurrence under different harvest management scenarios. The direct climate effects illustrate the impact of climate variables while the indirect effects are reflected through habitat-based climate change. We develop empirical models to predict the distribution of more than 100 species over the next century. We analyze the regional and the latitudinal species assemblage dissimilarity by decomposing it into 'balanced variation in species occupancy and occurrence' and 'occupancy and occurrence gradient'. Results Both pathways increased dissimilarity in species assemblage. At the regional scale, both effects have an impact on decreasing the number of winning species. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects (a mixture of direct and indirect effects). Regional assemblage dissimilarity reached 0.77 and 0.69 under mixed effects versus 0.09 and 0.10 under indirect effects for beetles and birds, respectively, between RCP8.5 and baseline climate scenarios when considering harvesting. Latitudinally, assemblage dissimilarity increased following the climate conditions pattern. Main conclusions The two pathways are complementary and alter biodiversity, mainly caused by species turnover. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects. Therefore, the inclusion of climatic variables considers aspects other than just those related to forest landscapes, such as life cycles of animal species. Moreover, we expect differences in occupancy between the two studied taxa. This could indicate the potential range of change in boreal species concerning novel environmental conditions.

Production of biodiesel from yellow grease (waste cooking oil and waste animal fats) is fast emerging as a promising alternative to address the twin challenges before the biodiesel industry today-fluctuation in prices of vegetable oil and the food versus fuel debate. Yellow grease has a high percentage of free fatty acids (FFA) and proves to be an unsuitable feedstock for biodiesel production from commercially viable alkali-catalyzed production systems due to saponification problems.“Green” methodologies based on heterogeneous solid acid catalyzed reactions have the potential to simultaneously promote esterification and transesterification reactions of yellow grease to produce biodiesel without soap formation and offer easy catalyst separation without generation of toxic streams. This paper presents kinetic studies for the conversion of model yellow grease feeds to biodiesel using a heteropolyacid supported on alumina (HSiW/Al2O3) using a batch autoclave. Three model yellow grease feeds were prepared using canola oil with added FFA such as palmitic, oleic and linoleic acid. A pseudo homogeneous kinetic model for the parallel esterification and transesterification was developed. The rate constants and activation parameters for esterification and transesterification reactions for the model yellow grease feeds were determined. The rate constants for esterification are higher than the transesterification rate constants. The kinetic model was validated using the experimental biodiesel data obtained from processing a commercial yellow grease feed. The kinetic model could be used to design novel processes to convert various low-value waste oils, fats and non-food grade oils to sustainable biodiesel. Keywords: Yellow grease, Canola oil, Free fatty acids, Heteropolyacid, Kinetics for esterification and transesterification

Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) experiences a recurrent drought phenomenon. However, few studies have focused on drought monitoring in this region due to lack of ground observations. The newly released Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) with a long-term record and high resolution has a great potential for drought monitoring. Based on the assessment of CHIRPS for capturing precipitation and monitoring drought, this study aims to evaluate the drought condition in LMB by using satellite-based CHIRPS from January 1981 to July 2016. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales (1–12-month) is computed to identify and describe drought events. Results suggest that CHIRPS can properly capture the drought characteristics at various time scales with the best performance at three-month time scale. Based on high-resolution long-term CHIRPS, it is found that LMB experienced four severe droughts during the last three decades with the longest one in 1991–1994 for 38 months and the driest one in 2015–2016 with drought affected area up to 75.6%. Droughts tend to occur over the north and south part of LMB with higher frequency, and Mekong Delta seems to experience more long-term and extreme drought events. Severe droughts have significant impacts on vegetation condition.

The benefits of aluminum lamination in improving the physical and mechanical properties of wood-based composites is now well documented. This paper shows the contribution of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a tool to assess and compare the environmental footprint in the development of laminated panels. SimaPro 9.0 software, using Ecoinvent database was used to analyze the environmental impacts associated with the manufacturing of wood aluminum-laminated (WAL) panels and aluminum honeycomb panel (AHP). The impact 2002+ method was used to estimate environmental impacts. The LCA results show that the WAL panels manufacturing had a lower environmental impact than AHP manufacturing. In term of product, wood-based composites were the best choice as a core in laminated panel manufacturing. Wood-based composite manufacturing showed environmental advantages in all damage categories except in ecosystem quality. Aluminum alloy sheets manufacturing played an important role in the generation of environmental impacts for laminated panel development.

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

Logging is the main human disturbance impacting biodiversity in forest ecosystems. However, the impact of forest harvesting on biodiversity is modulated by abiotic conditions through complex relationships that remain poorly documented. Therefore, the interplay between forest management and climate change can no longer be ignored. Our aim was to study the expected long-term variations in the assemblage of bird and beetle communities following modifications in forest management under different climate change scenarios. We developed species distribution models to predict the occurrence of 88 species of birds and beetles in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the next century. We simulated three climate scenarios (baseline, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) under which we varied the level of harvesting. We also analyzed the regional assemblage dissimilarity by decomposing it into balanced variations in species occupancy and occupancy gradient. We predict that forest harvesting will alter the diversity by increasing assemblage dissimilarity under all the studied climate scenarios, mainly due to species turnover. Species turnover intensity was greater for ground-dwelling beetles, probably because they have lower dispersal capacity than flying beetles or birds. A good dispersal capacity allows species to travel more easily between ecosystems across the landscape when they search for suitable habitats after a disturbance. Regionally, an overall increase in the probability of occupancy is projected for bird species, whereas a decrease is predicted for beetles, a variation that could reflect differences in ecological traits between taxa. Our results further predict a decrease in the number of species that increase their occupancy after harvest under the most severe climatic scenario for both taxa. We anticipate that under severe climate change, increasing forest disturbance will be detrimental to beetles associated with old forests but also with young forests after disturbances.