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Effects of global change on bird and beetle populations in boreal forest landscape: an assemblage dissimilarity analysis

Authors: Bouderbala, Ilhem; Labadie, Guillemette; Béland, Jean-Michel; Boulanger, Yan; Hébert, Christian; Desrosiers, Patrick; Allard, Antoine; +1 Authors

Effects of global change on bird and beetle populations in boreal forest landscape: an assemblage dissimilarity analysis

Abstract

Aim Despite an increasing number of studies highlighting the impacts of climate change on boreal species, the main factors that will drive changes in species assemblages remain ambiguous. We study how species community composition would change following anthropogenic and natural disturbances. We determine the main drivers of assemblage dissimilarity for bird and beetle communities. Location Côte-Nord, Québec, Canada. Methods We quantify two climate-induced pathways based on direct and indirect effects on species occurrence under different harvest management scenarios. The direct climate effects illustrate the impact of climate variables while the indirect effects are reflected through habitat-based climate change. We develop empirical models to predict the distribution of more than 100 species over the next century. We analyze the regional and the latitudinal species assemblage dissimilarity by decomposing it into 'balanced variation in species occupancy and occurrence' and 'occupancy and occurrence gradient'. Results Both pathways increased dissimilarity in species assemblage. At the regional scale, both effects have an impact on decreasing the number of winning species. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects (a mixture of direct and indirect effects). Regional assemblage dissimilarity reached 0.77 and 0.69 under mixed effects versus 0.09 and 0.10 under indirect effects for beetles and birds, respectively, between RCP8.5 and baseline climate scenarios when considering harvesting. Latitudinally, assemblage dissimilarity increased following the climate conditions pattern. Main conclusions The two pathways are complementary and alter biodiversity, mainly caused by species turnover. Yet, responses are much larger in magnitude under mixed climate effects. Therefore, the inclusion of climatic variables considers aspects other than just those related to forest landscapes, such as life cycles of animal species. Moreover, we expect differences in occupancy between the two studied taxa. This could indicate the potential range of change in boreal species concerning novel environmental conditions.

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Keywords

anthropogenic disturbance, Boreal forests, Climate Change, FOS: Biological sciences, latitudinal gradient, Biodiversity modeling, Climate change, Assemblage dissimilarity, Assemblage dissimilarity decomposition

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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