• Energy Research
• 2. Zero hunger close
• US close
• CN close
• AU close
• Global Change Biology close

AbstractSoil micronutrients are capital for the delivery of ecosystem functioning and food provision worldwide. Yet, despite their importance, the global biogeography and ecological drivers of soil micronutrients remain virtually unknown, limiting our capacity to anticipate abrupt unexpected changes in soil micronutrients in the face of climate change. Here, we analyzed >1300 topsoil samples to examine the global distribution of six metallic micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Co and Ni) across all continents, climates and vegetation types. We found that warmer arid and tropical ecosystems, present in the least developed countries, sustain the lowest contents of multiple soil micronutrients. We further provide evidence that temperature increases may potentially result in abrupt and simultaneous reductions in the content of multiple soil micronutrients when a temperature threshold of 12–14°C is crossed, which may be occurring on 3% of the planet over the next century. Altogether, our findings provide fundamental understanding of the global distribution of soil micronutrients, with direct implications for the maintenance of ecosystem functioning, rangeland management and food production in the warmest and poorest regions of the planet.

AbstractIntraspecific variation in genotypically determined traits can influence ecosystem processes. Therefore, the impact of climate change on ecosystems may depend, in part, on the distribution of plant genotypes. Here we experimentally assess effects of climate warming and excess nitrogen supply on litter decomposition using 12 genotypes of a cosmopolitan foundation species collected across a 2100 km latitudinal gradient and grown in a common garden. Genotypically determined litter‐chemistry traits varied substantially within and among geographic regions, which strongly affected decomposition and the magnitude of warming effects, as warming accelerated litter mass loss of high‐nutrient, but not low‐nutrient, genotypes. Although increased nitrogen supply alone had no effect on decomposition, it strongly accelerated litter mass loss of all genotypes when combined with warming. Rates of microbial respiration associated with the leaf litter showed nearly identical responses as litter mass loss. These results highlight the importance of interactive effects of environmental factors and suggest that loss or gain of genetic variation associated with key phenotypic traits can buffer, or exacerbate, the impact of global change on ecosystem process rates in the future.

AbstractPlant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentataNutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual‐based plant simulation model that represents intra‐ and inter‐specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process‐based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine‐scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of −20% to +27%), declines in perennial C3grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C4grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C3grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture‐limited versus temperature‐limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.

AbstractLivestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been—somewhat myopically—on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co‐benefits and trade‐offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple‐bottom line benefit with medium–high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co‐benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems‐based, multi‐metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems‐aligned ‘socio‐economic planetary boundaries’ offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross‐scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas.

AbstractEvidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal‐limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate‐related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated byENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate‐dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction inAOO. The strongly non‐linear relationship between abalone population size andAOOhas important ramifications for the use ofENMpredictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source‐sink dynamics and dispersal‐limitation.

AbstractAtmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is composed of both inorganic nitrogen (IN) and organic nitrogen (ON), and these sources of N may exhibit different impacts on ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts of N deposition is largely based on experimental gradients of INs or more rarely ONs. Thus, the effects of N deposition on ecosystem productivity and biodiversity may be biased. We explored the differential impacts of N addition with different IN:ON ratios (0:10, 3:7, 5:5, 7:3, and 10:0) on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of plant community and plant diversity in a typical temperate grassland with a long‐term N addition experiment. Soil pH, litter biomass, soil IN concentration, and light penetration were measured to examine the potential mechanisms underlying species loss with N addition. Our results showed that N addition significantly increased plant community ANPP by 68.33%–105.50% and reduced species richness by 16.20%–37.99%. The IN:ON ratios showed no significant effects on plant community ANPP. However, IN‐induced species richness loss was about 2.34 times of ON‐induced richness loss. Soil pH was positively related to species richness, and they exhibited very similar response patterns to IN:ON ratios. It implies that soil acidification accounts for the different magnitudes of species loss with IN and ON additions. Overall, our study suggests that it might be reasonable to evaluate the effects of N deposition on plant community ANPP with either IN or ON addition. However, the evaluation of N deposition on biodiversity might be overestimated if only IN is added or underestimated if only ON is added.

AbstractClimate change alters surface water availability (WA; precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P − ET) and consequently impacts agricultural production and societal water needs, leading to increasing concerns on the sustainability of water use. Although the direct effects of climate change on WA have long been recognized and assessed, indirect climate effects occurring through adjustments in terrestrial vegetation are more subtle and not yet fully quantified. To address this knowledge gap, here we investigate the interplay between climate‐induced changes in leaf area index (LAI) and ET and quantify its ultimate effect on WA during the period 1982–2016 at the global scale, using an ensemble of data‐driven products and land surface models. We show that ~44% of the global vegetated land has experienced a significant increase in growing season‐averaged LAI and climate change explains 33.5% of this greening signal. Such climate‐induced greening has enhanced ET of 0.051 ± 0.067 mm year−2 (mean ± SD), further amplifying the ongoing increase in ET directly driven by variations in climatic factors over 36.8% of the globe, and thus exacerbating the decline in WA prominently in drylands. These findings highlight the indirect impact of positive feedbacks in the land–climate system on the decline of WA, and call for an in‐depth evaluation of these phenomena in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.