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Short term load forecasting plays an increasingly important role in Smart Grid. Short term load forecasting is also an important part of enterprise power system management. Providing accurate load time series data for a certain period of time in the future can enable enterprises to ensure the smooth operation of production while making a reasonable power plan, reducing power consumption and basic electricity charges, thus reducing the production cost of enterprises. In addition, lower electricity consumption means lower carbon dioxide emissions, which has far-reaching implications for sustainable development strategies. This paper presents a short-term load forecasting method based on time series. The model divides the time series data into four parts: trend item, period item, holiday item and error item. In the experiment part, this paper provides a set of preprocessing method flow. Aiming at the problem that the sampling rate of the current smart grid data is not constant, a data smoothing algorithm is proposed.

Abstract The central role of occupants for achieving energy savings in residential buildings is increasingly recognised. Simulation programmes able to take into account occupant behaviour are considered to be powerful tools for bridging the gap between the predicted and the actual energy consumption for new buildings. Nevertheless, the majority of residential buildings that will constitute the housing stock in 2050 have already been built today, therefore occupant behaviour and building simulation tools need to be fully exploited for supporting the renovation of existing housing stock. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of occupant behaviour modelling in supporting decision-makers dealing with the design of renovation strategies for residential buildings. An Italian multi-family public housing building is assumed as case study to estimate the influence of three dimensions linked with occupant behaviour – management of the thermostat, management of the heating system, variation of building characteristics – on energy heating consumption. The results show that, while the occupant behaviour influences the heating loads up to 1/3 in case of high level of building retrofit, the less the building is renovated, the higher is the behavioural impact in absolute terms of energy reduction. Therefore, in order to be effective, renovation strategies are required to design appropriate informative instruments at an early stage to support behaviour changes towards responsible energy consumption.

Abstract The combination of biomass gasification with fuel cells, especially high temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) promises sustainable and highly efficient (decentralized and modular) energy conversion systems. This review encompasses the components of biomass integrated gasification–SOFC technology including biomass characteristics, the thermochemical conversion in gasifiers and the factors affecting the gasification process, the cleaning technologies for raw producer gas and its conditioning and finally the integration of gasifier with SOFCs. The influence of impurities present in biomass producer gas such as particulates, tar, H 2 S, HCl and alkali compounds based on recent experimental studies and their tolerance limits towards SOFCs are presented. Even though analysis based on the probable tolerance limits of impurities towards SOFCs and a comprehensive overview of the cleaning technologies for producer gas impurities indicate that producer gas cleaning at various temperatures using current technologies to meet SOFC requirements is possible, more experimental studies are still needed to acquire the detailed information on the tolerance limits of impurities for SOFCs. The recent theoretical modeling and experimental studies of biomass integrated gasification–SOFC systems are also presented.

In order to improve the accuracy of the battery state of charge (SOC) estimation, in this paper we take a lithium-ion battery as an example to study the adaptive Kalman filter based SOC estimation algorithm. Firstly, the second-order battery system model is introduced. Meanwhile, the temperature and charge rate are introduced into the model. Then, the temperature and the charge rate are adopted to estimate the battery SOC, with the help of the parameters of an adaptive Kalman filter based estimation algorithm model. Afterwards, it is verified by the numerical simulation that in the ideal case, the accuracy of SOC estimation can be enhanced by adding two elements, namely, the temperature and charge rate. Finally, the actual road conditions are simulated with ADVISOR, and the simulation results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of battery SOC estimation under actual road conditions. Thus, its application scope in engineering is greatly expanded.

Abstract The adoption rate and stringency of building energy standards in the U.S. have been increasing since the mid-1990s as a result of the Energy Policy Act mandate of 1992 (EPAct). Current evidence on the energy savings that accrue from commercial building energy standards is based on engineering simulations, which do not account for realized behaviour once a standard is actually adopted. This paper uses quasi-experimental variation in commercial building energy standard adoptions to estimate their effect on realized electricity consumption and cost-effectiveness. In states induced by EPAct to adopt an energy standard where all new nonresidential construction was erected under a commercial standard, electricity consumption per service worker is lower by about 12%, and total commercial electricity consumption is lower by 10%. Including early adopters and never-adopters to the analysis leads to a downward bias in the treatment effect. The realized electricity savings in the EPAct states represent three quarters of predicted simulated savings, and electricity saved in 2010 came at a cost of approximately 7.7 cents per kWh.

The solution of an electric circuit problem is only valid if the circuit elements have been validly modelled. The iron-cored coil is a common nonlinear circuit element, especially in power system circuits, where the iron core is laminated grain-oriented silicon-iron sheet. This paper attempts to show that eddy-current loss modelling in such a core is at least as important as hysteresis loss modelling, and demonstrates the accuracy of linear modelling of the eddy-current effect. If the circuit analyst has confidence in this complete model he can then decide which aspects of the model can be ignored with impunity when studying such circuit phenomena as ferroresonance, subharmonics and inrush current.

Abstract For 118 million residential housing units in the U.S., there is currently a gap between the potential energy savings that can be achieved through the use of existing energy efficiency technologies, and the actual level of energy savings realized, particularly for the 37% of housing units that are considered residential rental properties. Additional quantifiable benefits are needed beyond energy savings to help further motivate residential property owners to invest in energy efficiency upgrades. This research focuses on assessing the adoption of energy efficient upgrades in U.S. residential housing and the impact on rental prices. Ten U.S. cities are chosen for analysis; these cities vary in size across multiple climate zones, and represent a diverse set of housing market conditions. Data was collected for over 159,000 rental property listings, their characteristics, and their energy efficiency measures listed in rental housing postings across each city. Following an extensive data quality control process, over thirty different types energy efficient features were identified. The level of adoption was determined for each city, ranging from 5.3% to 21.6%. Efficient lighting and appliances were among the most common, with many features doubling as energy efficient and other desirable aesthetic or comfort improvements. Then using propensity score matching and conditional mean comparison methods, the relative impact on rent charged in each city was calculated, which ranged from a 6% to 14.1% increase in rent for properties with energy efficient features, demonstrating a positive economic impact of these features, particularly for property owners. This was further subdivided into five types of energy efficiency upgrade and three housing types. Single family homes generally demanded higher premiums with energy efficient features, however there was not a consistent pattern across the types of efficient upgrades. The results of this work demonstrate that investment in energy efficient technologies has quantifiable benefits for rental property owners in the U.S. beyond just energy savings. This methodology and results can also be used in other cities and by property owners, utility companies, or others, ultimately encouraging further investment and positive economic impact in residential energy efficiency and in turn improving energy and resource conservation in the building sector.

This paper examines the hypothesis that there is a single economic market for the international steam coal industry and investigates the degree of steam coal market integration over time. A regression test of convergence is employed to test for group convergence within a panel of steam coal exporting countries. The long-run relations between international steam coal prices are tested through cointegration analysis and the Kalman Filter analysis is employed to examine the convergence path of the price series. Monthly Free on Board (F.O.B.) prices for Australia, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Poland and South Africa between January 1995 and July 2007 are used. Considering the outcomes of the three econometric techniques as a whole, we conclude that the international steam coal market is generally integrated.