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Short term load forecasting plays an increasingly important role in Smart Grid. Short term load forecasting is also an important part of enterprise power system management. Providing accurate load time series data for a certain period of time in the future can enable enterprises to ensure the smooth operation of production while making a reasonable power plan, reducing power consumption and basic electricity charges, thus reducing the production cost of enterprises. In addition, lower electricity consumption means lower carbon dioxide emissions, which has far-reaching implications for sustainable development strategies. This paper presents a short-term load forecasting method based on time series. The model divides the time series data into four parts: trend item, period item, holiday item and error item. In the experiment part, this paper provides a set of preprocessing method flow. Aiming at the problem that the sampling rate of the current smart grid data is not constant, a data smoothing algorithm is proposed.

Abstract In the current study, a new solar-driven triple cycle is proposed to allow power generation during low insolation periods. This triple cycle integrates the solar gas-turbine top cycle, the steam Rankine cycle, and the Kalina bottom cycle. During the top cycle of the proposed system, compressed air was heated to 1000 °C or higher in the solar tower receiver. The heated compressed air was then used to drive the gas turbine to generate electricity. A Rankine cycle with a back-pressure steam turbine was utilized to recover waste heat from the gas turbine, thereby generating electricity through the steam turbine. The bottom cycle is the Kalina cycle, which comprises another back-pressure turbine and utilizes ammonia–water mixture as working fluid. After driving the steam Rankine cycle, the flue gas from the gas turbine sequentially heats the ammonia–water mixture to produce power. A new operational strategy was presented to generate electricity during low insolation period without the backup of fossil fuel. In middle insolation periods, the air is heated by the solar field and then directly drives the steam Rankine cycle, bypassing the gas turbine. In low insolation periods, the heated air directly drive the Kalina cycle, bypassing the Brayton cycle and the steam Rankine cycle. The off-design performance was investigated and the irreversibility was disclosed with the aid of the energy-utilization diagram method. Thus, the proposed system can utilize low insolation to generate electricity. This study provides a possibility to improve the solar–electric efficiency.

Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.

The development of advanced computational models for improving the accuracy of streamflow forecasting could save time and cost for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a locally weighted learning (LWL) algorithm is combined with the Additive Regression (AR), Bagging (BG), Dagging (DG), Random Subspace (RS), and Rotation Forest (RF) ensemble techniques for the streamflow forecasting in the Jhelum Catchment, Pakistan. To build the models, we grouped the initial parameters into four different scenarios (M1–M4) of input data with a five-fold cross-validation (I–V) approach. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed ensemble models, previous lagged values of streamflow were used as inputs whereas the cross-validation technique and periodicity input were used to examine prediction accuracy on the basis of root correlation coefficient (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), relative absolute error (RAE), and root relative squared error (RRSE). The results showed that the incorporation of periodicity (i.e., MN) as an additional input variable considerably improved both the training performance and predictive performance of the models. A comparison between the results obtained from the input combinations III and IV revealed a significant performance improvement. The cross-validation revealed that the dataset M3 provided more accurate results compared to the other datasets. While all the ensemble models successfully outperformed the standalone LWL model, the ensemble LWL-AR model was identified as the best model. Our study demonstrated that the ensemble modeling approach is a robust and promising alternative to the single forecasting of streamflow that should be further investigated with different datasets from other regions around the world.

Abstract Electricity markets in Europe become increasingly interconnected due to new grid connections and market coupling regulations. This paper examines the interdependencies between the Swiss electricity market and those of neighbouring countries. The Swiss market serves as a good example for a smaller electricity market which is increasingly affected by developments in the large neighbouring countries. To study these cross-border effects, especially those on Swiss electricity prices, we apply two different methodologies, an econometric and a Nash-Cournot equilibrium model. The analyses show that the Swiss electricity price correlates strongly with the German electricity price in the summer, but tends to follow the French electricity price in the winter. Another finding is that gas prices and the electricity load of neighbouring countries have a significant influence on prices. In particular, the load of France and Italy is driving up Swiss prices in the winter, while the German electricity demand and renewable energy generation have a larger influence on Swiss prices in the summer.

This article makes the central argument that basic democratic values such as justice, autonomy and participation run the risk of being neglected when designing ‘nudges’ (i.e., indirect suggestions to influence individual behaviour) for sustainable behaviour change in the context of food governance, potentially complicating a democratisation of the food system. ‘Nudges’ uphold freedom of choice while simultaneously advocating a non-coercive soft force of paternalism to help people realise their preferences, maximise societal well-being and meet macro-sustainability goals. While the promises of the ‘nudge’ approach are widely echoed, nudging is also being contested because of its possible anti-democratic effects, such as individualisation, depoliticization and the emphasis of the status of citizens as ‘consumer-citizens.’ From a food democracy perspective, these dangers may undermine efforts to organise collective political action and impede alternative visions of a future food system. Empirically, the article examines specifically how behavioural-economic approaches imagine transitions to a more sustainable food system. By using the “COOP Supermarket of the Future” as a case study, the following analysis will illustrate how private actors are increasingly involved in steering consumer choice towards socially desirable actions. The analysis suggests that the design of choice environments may under specific circumstances increase the susceptibility of individuals to the influence of corporate preferences and simultaneously decrease the prospects for democratic legitimation and decision-making. The article therefore critically assesses whether reforming the food system by altering consumers’ choice-sets and the attribution of personal responsibility, may in fact point towards implicit anti-democratic tenets underlying the ‘will to nudge’ citizens.

Aiming at the large carbon emissions of facility agricultural heating in severe cold regions in winter, a compound parabolic concentrator based soil heating system was presented. The system integrated with novel trough compound parabolic concentrator and was used for soil heating in facility agriculture. Following the structure of the compound parabolic concentrator, TracePro software was selected to trace the light in the compound parabolic concentrator. The variation trend of the light escape rate of the compound parabolic concentrator with the different incident angles was analyzed. Based on the calculation results, the performance of the solar collector system was investigated, and the impact of circulating air velocity on the photo-thermal performance of the solar collector system was explored. Research results indicate that when the circulating air velocity is 1.4 m/s and the average ambient temperature is about 28.9?, the temperature of the system outlet is up to 90.9?. The average instantaneous heat collection, maximum photo-thermal conversion efficiency, and unit area heat collection of the system are 740.6 W, 27.83%, and 0.8 MJ/m2, respectively. This research can effectively promote the efficient integration of the solar collector system in facility agriculture.

Abstract A biomass oil/diesel blend was prepared using an emulsion method and combusted in a diesel engine. An injector was then removed and the morphology, composition, and structure of the carbonaceous deposits on the pintle-type nozzle were characterized using a combination of HRTEM, SEM/EDAX, Raman and XRD. Results showed that the carbon deposition of the emulsified fuel with high crystallinity was greater than that of diesel. The agglomerated particulate diameters of the deposited carbon from diesel and emulsified fuel were approximately 10–30 μm and 50 μm, respectively. The carbon deposition mechanism from the emulsified fuel was attributed to the high oxygen content of the groups leading to increased polymerization and subsequent condensation on the nozzle surfaces that was then carbonised.