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Novel Ensemble Forecasting of Streamflow Using Locally Weighted Learning Algorithm

doi: 10.3390/su13115877
The development of advanced computational models for improving the accuracy of streamflow forecasting could save time and cost for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a locally weighted learning (LWL) algorithm is combined with the Additive Regression (AR), Bagging (BG), Dagging (DG), Random Subspace (RS), and Rotation Forest (RF) ensemble techniques for the streamflow forecasting in the Jhelum Catchment, Pakistan. To build the models, we grouped the initial parameters into four different scenarios (M1–M4) of input data with a five-fold cross-validation (I–V) approach. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed ensemble models, previous lagged values of streamflow were used as inputs whereas the cross-validation technique and periodicity input were used to examine prediction accuracy on the basis of root correlation coefficient (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), relative absolute error (RAE), and root relative squared error (RRSE). The results showed that the incorporation of periodicity (i.e., MN) as an additional input variable considerably improved both the training performance and predictive performance of the models. A comparison between the results obtained from the input combinations III and IV revealed a significant performance improvement. The cross-validation revealed that the dataset M3 provided more accurate results compared to the other datasets. While all the ensemble models successfully outperformed the standalone LWL model, the ensemble LWL-AR model was identified as the best model. Our study demonstrated that the ensemble modeling approach is a robust and promising alternative to the single forecasting of streamflow that should be further investigated with different datasets from other regions around the world.
- Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands Iran (Islamic Republic of)
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering China (People's Republic of)
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering China (People's Republic of)
- Mansoura University Egypt
- Hohai University China (People's Republic of)
Environmental effects of industries and plants, rotation forest, TJ807-830, additive regression, bagging, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, random subspace, ensemble modeling, dagging
Environmental effects of industries and plants, rotation forest, TJ807-830, additive regression, bagging, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, random subspace, ensemble modeling, dagging
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).47 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
