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This presentation was held in January 2024 during the Danish Marine Science Meeting (22. Danske Havforskermøde). Abstract: Climate change and pollution are expected to increase in the Arctic in the future. Still, the combined impact on the marine ecosystem is not well understood. In this study, we investigated the cumulative impact of crude oil and two climate change scenarios on the feeding of the copepod species Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus. Adult females were exposed to ambient conditions and two scenarios of warming and freshening. All three conditions were tested in the absence and presence of mechanically dispersed oil (1 µL L-1). During the 6 days of exposure, incubations were renewed daily and the number of fecal pellets was counted. The fecal pellet volume was measured three times. Warming from 0 to 5°C plus freshening from 33 to 27 psu resulted in a significant increase in feeding for both species. However, when salinity dropped to 20 psu (at 5°C) feeding decreased for C. glacialis, while fluctuating for C. finmarchicus. For both species, oil had the strongest effect, leading to a 68-83% reduction in feeding, overshadowing any differences between climatic conditions. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of Arctic copepods to all three parameters, with some cumulative effects.

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

AbstractMillions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes, and biota are exposed to multiple stressors, including pollution and climate change. Still, little is known about their joint impact. Here, we investigated the cumulative impact of crude oil, warming, and freshening on the copepod species Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus. Adult females were exposed to ambient conditions (control; 0 °C + 33 psu) and combined warming and freshening: 5 °C + 27 psu (Scenario 1), 5 °C + 20 psu (Scenario 2) for 6 days. All three conditions were tested with and without dispersed crude oil. In Scenario 1, fecal pellet production (FPP) significantly increased by 40-78% and 42-122% for C. glacialis and C. finmarchicus, respectively. In Scenario 2, FPP decreased by 6-57% for C. glacialis, while it fluctuated for C. finmarchicus. For both species, oil had the strongest effect on FPP, leading to a 68-83% reduction. This overshadowed the differences between climatic scenarios. All variables (temperature, salinity, and oil) had significant single effects and several joint effects on FPP. Our results demonstrate that Arctic copepods are sensitive to environmentally realistic concentrations of crude oil and climate change. Strong reductions in feeding can reduce the copepods' energy content with potential large-scale impacts on the Arctic marine food web.