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Abstract Computable general equilibrium models are becoming popular for simulating emissions trading systems. However, these models make various assumptions about the production structure and the possibilities of substituting energy for productive factors or inputs. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how different options to incorporate energy into the nested production structure of a computable general equilibrium model affect the obtained impacts when an emissions trading system is implemented. A flexible computable general equilibrium model called ECOMODEL is developed, which is the first model that allows choosing any of the three nested production structures most used in the literature (KEL-M, KL-EM, or KLE-M). The Chilean economy is used as a case study since there is a current database with high disaggregation of the energy sector for calibrating the computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the simulated impacts with KEL-M and KL-EM structures are the best when elasticities of substitution equal to the values ​​most frequently used in previous studies are chosen. However, the KEL-M structure that considers energy as a substitute for capital provides overly optimistic environmental results when high elasticities of substitution are used, obtaining the lowest reduction in Gross Domestic Product and the lowest price of the emissions trading system. Furthermore, the KLE-M structure gives unrealistic results regardless of the elasticities of substitution used. In consequence, a KL-EM nested production structure should be prioritized to simulate an emissions trading system since it provides realistic results and is less sensitive to the values of the elasticities of substitution.

Information about decadal to millennial variability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is fundamental for the assessment of ENSO responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Despite a growing number of ENSO reconstructions, the overall picture of Holocene ENSO variability is inconsistent. Here, we revisit the iconic Holocene ENSO sediment record of Lake Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Rodbell et al., 1999). We asked: (i) How coherent are the records of clastic layers (flood layers) in the sediments of Lake Pallcacocha and adjacent Lake Fondococha? (ii) What are the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to intense precipitation and, potentially, to alluvial activity promoting the deposition of clastic layers in these lakes? (iii) Is intense precipitation in this area associated with El Nino, or not? We analyzed clastic layers in Late-Holocene sediments from multiple cores in Lakes Pallcacocha and Fondococha from Cajas National Park, southern Ecuadorian Andes. Additionally, we investigated precipitation data from 13 nearby meteorological stations to test if intense precipitation (percentiles P0.95, P0.99, P0.995) is predominantly related to El Nino conditions or not (based on 15 different ENSO indices). Our results show that the absolute flood frequencies (clastic layers per 100 years) differ substantially from lake to lake. This indicates that the frequency of clastic layers reflects different sensitivities (thresholds of precipitation) of the catchments to alluvial activity. 210Pb ages suggest that neither the 1982/83 nor the 1997/98 very strong El Ninos produced clastic layers comparable to those found in the late Holocene. Daily precipitation records from meteorological stations close to Lake Pallcacocha including a high-altitude station from the western slope of the Andes did not show unusually high precipitation during the super El Nino 2015/16. We further find that intense precipitation in this area occurs at roughly equal probability under El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions. Although the spectral properties of the late Holocene clastic layers in Lake Pallcacocha fall into the typical ENSO frequency band, we do not find evidence in the recent sediments and the meteorological data that would support a diagnostic link between alluvial activity in Lake Pallcacocha and strong El Nino events. Our data do not support the idea that the (late) Holocene flood record of Lake Pallcacocha is a conclusive paleo-El Nino record

As countries start to implement the Sustainable Development Goals in their national development agendas, reviews of the current policy environment are necessary to ensure that the goals are achievable by 2030. The present study assesses the effectiveness of energy policy in Indonesia in supporting progress towards universal energy access, a substantial increase in renewable energy deployment, and improvement in energy efficiency. Laws and regulations related to energy were reviewed, and their contribution to achieving the energy targets of the Sustainable Development Goals in Indonesia was evaluated in terms of policy effectiveness. Results show that providing electricity for the remaining 1.1 million households living in the outermost and least developed regions of the archipelago is very challenging. However, Indonesia is still on track to achieve 100% residential electrification by 2030 as long as enough budget is allocated annually. Indonesia may not be able to provide access to clean cooking fuels and technology for everyone by 2030. The current policy focusing mostly on gas for cooking will be less effective in reaching the remaining households that cook with solid biomass and usually live in poverty. Similarly, the current policy scenario is not sufficient to allow enough progress to achieve the renewable energy target. Finally, the assessment of energy efficiency policy suggests that sectoral energy use is shaped by variables and regulation not primarily intended to improve energy efficiency.

Abstract This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We use a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods and apply it to the Ecuadorian economy. Specifically, we investigate the effects of unanticipated changes in taxes, government consumption spending, government investment spending, and oil revenues on economic activity. The results show that unanticipated expansive fiscal policy either through taxes or government investment can have positive effects on output. However, contrary to most studies in the literature, consumption spending shocks do not significantly affect gross domestic product. We also find that oil revenue shocks influence all the variables in the model, evidencing the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to fluctuations of oil revenues. Historically, oil revenue shocks have been the most important driving force to move output above or below trend.

In order to make adequate projections on the consequences of climate change stressors on marine organisms, it is important to know how impacts of these stressors are affected by the presence of other species. Here we assessed the direct effects of ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA) along with non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of a predatory crab and/or a predatory snail on the habitat-forming mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. Mussels were exposed for 10-14 weeks to contrasting pCO2 (500 and 1400 μatm) and temperature (15 and 20 °C) levels, in the presence/absence of cues from one or two predator species. We compared mussel traits at sub-organismal (nutritional status, metabolic capacity-ATP production-, cell stress condition via HSP70 expression) and organismal (survival, oxygen consumption, growth, byssus biogenesis, clearance rates, aggregation) levels. OA increased the mussels' oxygen consumption; and OA combined with OW increased ATP demand and the use of carbohydrate reserves. Mussels at present-day pCO2 levels had the highest protein content. Under OW the predatory snail cues induced the highest cell stress condition on the mussels. Temperature, predator cues and the interaction between them affected mussel growth. Mussels grew larger at the control temperature (15 °C) when crab and snail cues were present. Mussel wet mass and calcification were affected by predator cues; with highest values recorded in crab cue presence (isolated or combined with snail cues). In the absence of predator cues in the trails, byssus biogenesis was affected by OA, OW and the OA × OW and OA × predator cues interactions. At present-day pCO2 levels, more byssus was recorded with snail than with crab cues. Clearance rates were affected by temperature, pCO2 and the interaction between them. The investigated stressors had no effects on mussel aggregation. We conclude that OA, OW and the NCEs may lead to neutral, positive or negative consequences for mussels.

The chemical characteristics of mine tailings, organic amendments (doses), and plants are the critical factors that must be evaluated and monitored to ensure the sustainability of phytostabilization. The aim of this study was to evaluate the mobility of copper (Cu) in mine tailings (MT) of the Zone Central of Chile to which commercial humic substances were added, examining their effect on the uptake of Atriplex halimus. Two commercial humic substances (HS1 and HS2) extracted from leonardite (highly oxidized lignite), of different pH and total organic carbon, were evaluated by adsorption curve for Cu. In columns, soluble Cu, pH, and electrical conductivity in leachates were evaluated for MT, MT + HS1, and MT + HS2, and HS1 and HS2 in doses of 120 mg kg-1. In pot assay, seeds were germinated directly in MT and cultivated for 140 days with the addition of HS2 in 120 and 240 mg kg-1. Mine tailing presents high concentration of Cu (2016 ± 223 mg kg-1, pH 6.3 ± 0.1). The results of sequential extraction indicate that Cu is associated with the sulfide fraction of low risk of mobility. The amount of Cu sorbed by HS1 was higher than that sorbed by HS2, and both humic substances showing better fit to the Freundlich than Langmuir model. Lixiviation of Cu was significantly lower in MT + HS1 (0.166 ± 0.043 mg kg-1) and MT + HS2 (0.157 ± 0.018 mg kg-1) than in MT (0.251 ± 0.052 mg kg-1). Copper concentration in plants reached 185.8 ± 37.8 mg kg-1 in the roots and 32.6 ± 7.4 mg kg-1 in the aerial parts cultivated in MT without effect of the humic substance addition in Cu uptake nor growth. Copper concentrations in the aerial parts were adjusted to sufficient or normal levels in plant. A good management of mine tailings through phytostabilization could consider an adequate mixture of humic substances (to avoid leaching of metals) and an organic amendment that provides essential nutrients and increases biomass generation.

This study examines the impact of government spending, income, and tourism consumption on CO2 emissions in the 50 US states through a novel theoretical model derived from the Armey Curve model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings of this research are essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies for mitigating environmental pollution. Utilizing panel cointegration analysis, the study provides valuable insights into whether continued increases in government spending contribute to higher pollution levels. By identifying the threshold point of spending as a percentage of GDP, policymakers can make informed decisions to avoid the trade-off between increased spending and environmental degradation. For instance, the analysis reveals that Hawaii's tipping point is 16.40%. The empirical results underscore the importance of adopting sustainable policies that foster economic growth while minimizing environmental harm. These findings will aid policymakers in formulating targeted and efficient approaches to tackle climate change and promote long-term environmental sustainability in the United States. Moreover, the impact of tourism development on CO2 emissions varies across states, with some US states experiencing a decrease while others see an increase.

Countries around the world suffer the dramatic impact of earthquakes and other natural hazards reflected in casualties, infrastructure damage, service interruptions, and recovery costs. Although disaster exposure consciousness of electric power systems has increased in recent years, mitigation and adaptation actions, such as reserve scheduling and infrastructure investments, are usually performed without quantitative tools to account for the underlying stochasticity of these events. This article first discusses why an integrated assessment, which incorporates sources of uncertainty (risk) and manages the time-dependency of the recovery process (resilience), should be used to assess the impact of seismic events on electric power systems. Thereafter, a probabilistic methodology that considers the hazard, vulnerability, operation, and recovery of the system is presented. As a case study, the probabilistic seismic resilience of the electric power system of Northern Chile is assessed using different risk measures, including expected annual loss, value at risk, and conditional value-at-risk. Finally, a novel criticality assessment based on these metrics is developed to demonstrate that, for certain networks such as the study case, retrofit of selective components can notably improve the resilience of the complete system to seismic events. For example, if one specific component from the 152 components of the study system is assumed invulnerable, expected annual interruption costs decrease by 8%.

Abstract The need for the Chilean government to adopt a position vis-a-vis negotiations at the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change prompts a preliminary analysis in this paper of the results of reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and their costs for Chile. Basically, two sectors offer possibilities to contribute to the control of CO 2 emissions. In the energy sector, CO 2 emissions can be abated by either adopting more efficient technologies or switching fuels. In the non-energy sector, CO 2 emissions can be sequestered from the atmosphere by afforestation, reforestation and forest management. This work represent the first effort in Chile to estimate the costs of CO 2 abatement and sequestration for Chile using a bottom-up approach for the year 2010, which in a global warming context is a short/medium term scenario. In the energy sector, the end and intermediate uses of energy are considered for the transportation, manufacturing and electricity sectors. In the non-energy sector, sequestration costs incurred in forestation on marginal land available in each administrative region of Chile are estimated. Our preliminary results indicate that Chile has a large potential to become a net remover of GHG emissions, with a 176% of CO 2 equivalent reduction attainable by 2010 under the upper-bound scenario. A 7% CO 2 abatement can be achieved at apparently no cost to society with increased efficiency in the use of energy, and a 114% abatement can be achieved at moderate costs, i.e., less than 11 US$/ton CO 2 eq. The major reduction is obtainable through CO 2 sequestration by forests.