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Abstract Background Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO2, water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

Abstract Background Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO2, water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

AbstractThe global energy system is in transition. It is attempting to reach net‐zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The systemic changes mean that the role of bioenergy will change. The potential of bioenergy to make a flexible contribution to the energy system is key for the achievement of global emission reduction ambitions and the functioning of the low‐carbon energy system and economy. As the volume of sustainably available biomass resources is limited, defining the contributions from bioenergy to a low‐carbon energy system and finding balances – and ideally synergies – between the different possible energy and climate system services that biomass can provide will be very important. The recognized system services include, among others, the flexible operation of bioenergy plants to integrate variable renewable energy sources and to provide negative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Interest in flexible operation of bioenergy value chains, bioenergy with carbon capture and utilization as well as synergies with renewable hydrogen‐based value chains has increased recently. The objective of this paper is to present a holistic definition of flexible bioenergy as a system service based on the work conducted in International Energy Agency (IEA) Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Programme's Task 44 Flexible Bioenergy and System Integration, and to provide some practical examples. The paper also presents the different bioenergy system services and considers their definitions and interactions, as this is important in energy system design. The definition of flexible bioenergy shows that the flexibility provision from bioenergy goes far beyond the traditional definition of providing short‐term flexibility in the power sector. Indicators to demonstrate the value of services as well as further quantitative assessment of synergies and trade‐offs are needed to valorize the different services from bioenergy and create viable business cases.

AbstractThe global energy system is in transition. It is attempting to reach net‐zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The systemic changes mean that the role of bioenergy will change. The potential of bioenergy to make a flexible contribution to the energy system is key for the achievement of global emission reduction ambitions and the functioning of the low‐carbon energy system and economy. As the volume of sustainably available biomass resources is limited, defining the contributions from bioenergy to a low‐carbon energy system and finding balances – and ideally synergies – between the different possible energy and climate system services that biomass can provide will be very important. The recognized system services include, among others, the flexible operation of bioenergy plants to integrate variable renewable energy sources and to provide negative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Interest in flexible operation of bioenergy value chains, bioenergy with carbon capture and utilization as well as synergies with renewable hydrogen‐based value chains has increased recently. The objective of this paper is to present a holistic definition of flexible bioenergy as a system service based on the work conducted in International Energy Agency (IEA) Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Programme's Task 44 Flexible Bioenergy and System Integration, and to provide some practical examples. The paper also presents the different bioenergy system services and considers their definitions and interactions, as this is important in energy system design. The definition of flexible bioenergy shows that the flexibility provision from bioenergy goes far beyond the traditional definition of providing short‐term flexibility in the power sector. Indicators to demonstrate the value of services as well as further quantitative assessment of synergies and trade‐offs are needed to valorize the different services from bioenergy and create viable business cases.

Torrefied biomass has considerable potential as a biomass fuel to replace coal in energy and process heat production. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential of torrefied biomass in different industries, both power and non-power generation industries, and considers the impact of such use on the international biomass market. The power generation sector has been so far the leader in testing torrefied biomass use with other industrial demand lagging behind. There are promising technical possibilities for greater torrefied biomass use in a number of other areas such as the steel, non-metallic minerals, as well as the pulp and paper industries. Although a large increase in torrefied biomass consumption by industry is not immediately foreseeable, industrial use by actors outside the energy generation sector could increase demand for torrefied biomass in general and, as a result, stimulate development of global torrefied biomass markets. Results show that the torrefied biomass demand significantly depends on the bioenergy markets. It seems that despite of the challenges, the growth of torrefied biomass demand will have a large progress in coming years.

Torrefied biomass has considerable potential as a biomass fuel to replace coal in energy and process heat production. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential of torrefied biomass in different industries, both power and non-power generation industries, and considers the impact of such use on the international biomass market. The power generation sector has been so far the leader in testing torrefied biomass use with other industrial demand lagging behind. There are promising technical possibilities for greater torrefied biomass use in a number of other areas such as the steel, non-metallic minerals, as well as the pulp and paper industries. Although a large increase in torrefied biomass consumption by industry is not immediately foreseeable, industrial use by actors outside the energy generation sector could increase demand for torrefied biomass in general and, as a result, stimulate development of global torrefied biomass markets. Results show that the torrefied biomass demand significantly depends on the bioenergy markets. It seems that despite of the challenges, the growth of torrefied biomass demand will have a large progress in coming years.