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AbstractOcean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.

AbstractClimate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

AbstractQuantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions. Here we describe GCP-GridFED (version 2019.1), a gridded fossil emissions dataset that is consistent with the national CO2 emissions reported by the Global Carbon Project (GCP). GCP-GridFEDv2019.1 provides monthly fossil CO2 emissions estimates for the period 1959–2018 at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Estimates are provided separately for oil, coal and natural gas, for mixed international bunker fuels, and for the calcination of limestone during cement production. GCP-GridFED also includes gridded estimates of O2 uptake based on oxidative ratios for oil, coal and natural gas. It will be updated annually and made available for atmospheric inversions contributing to GCP global carbon budget assessments, thus aligning the prior constraints on top-down fossil CO2 emissions with the bottom-up estimates compiled by the GCP.

We have implemented the polarizable continuum model within the framework of the many-body Green’s function GW formalism for the calculation of electron addition and removal energies in solution. The present formalism includes both ground-state and non-equilibrium polarization effects. In addition, the polarization energies are state-specific, allowing to obtain the bath-induced renormalisation energy of all occupied and virtual energy levels. Our implementation is validated by comparisons with ΔSCF calculations performed at both the density functional theory and coupled-cluster single and double levels for solvated nucleobases. The present study opens the way to GW and Bethe-Salpeter calculations in disordered condensed phases of interest in organic optoelectronics, wet chemistry, and biology.