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An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Authors: Carlos F. Ibáñez; Stéphanie Manel; John B. Taggart; Gareth Jones; Kirsty J. Park; Javier Juste; Hugo Rebelo; +5 Authors

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Abstract

AbstractClimate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population‐level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype–environment association analysis, we identify potential climate‐adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Countries
United Kingdom, Spain, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, France, Denmark
Keywords

Genotype-environment associations, génétique du paysage, RANGE SHIFTS, Biodiversité et Ecologie, Bats;Conservation genomics;Genotype-environment associations;Global change;Landscape genetics;Range shifts, Adaptation, Biological, bat, Chiroptera, Bats, Chordata, Global change, changement climatique, Range shifts, genotype-environment associations, genotype–environment associations, Biodiversity, From the Cover, interaction génotype environnement, Phylogeography, Genotype–environment associations, Conservation genomics, Mammalia, 570, Climate Change, potentiel adaptatif, bats, niche écologique, Landscape genetics, 333, range shifts, Biodiversity and Ecology, chauve souris, Animals, Animalia, donnée génomique, Selection, Genetic, global change, Endangered Species, landscape genetics, Environmental Exposure, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Genetics, Population, vulnérabilité génétique, conservation genomics, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Animal Distribution

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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