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We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

Le Pakistan traverse une crise énergétique terrifiante et dévastatrice. Récemment, la prévision de la consommation d'énergie s'est intensifiée par rapport à sa capacité de production, ce qui est problématique pour la stabilité sociale et économique du Pakistan. Par conséquent, il est essentiel d'examiner le lien entre la consommation d'électricité, les prix de l'électricité, la transition urbaine, les autres utilisations d'électricité et l'expansion économique de 1970 à 2018 au Pakistan. Pour l'analyse, la technique économétrique de deuxième génération de Lee et Strazicich (2013), le nouveau Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (AARDL) et Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) est utile pour détecter l'association à moyen et à court terme entre les variables. Les résultats montrent que la consommation d'électricité stimule l'expansion économique à court et à long terme, bien que la hausse des prix de l'électricité diminue l'activité économique à court et à long terme. En outre, la transition urbaine et d'autres utilisations de l'électricité ont un impact positif et négatif substantiel sur l'expansion économique à court et à long terme. Le résultat suggère qu'un approvisionnement énergétique efficace, des prix de l'énergie à faible coût, une bonne gestion de la transition urbaine et d'autres utilisations de l'énergie pourraient être utiles aux décideurs pour atteindre les ODD 7 et 11 au Pakistan. Pakistán se encuentra en una crisis energética aterradora y devastadora. Recientemente, la predicción del consumo de energía se ha intensificado en comparación con su capacidad de producción, lo que es problemático para la estabilidad social y económica de Pakistán. Por lo tanto, es vital examinar el vínculo entre el consumo de energía, los precios de la energía, la transición urbana, otros usos de la electricidad y la expansión económica de 1970 a 2018 en Pakistán. Para el análisis, la técnica econométrica de segunda generación de Lee y Strazicich (2013), el novedoso Retraso Distribuido Autoregresivo Aumentado (AARDL) y la Causalidad en el Dominio de la Frecuencia (FDC) son útiles para detectar la asociación a largo y corto plazo entre las variables. Los resultados muestran que el consumo de energía estimula la expansión económica a corto y largo plazo, aunque el aumento de los precios de la energía disminuye la actividad económica a corto y largo plazo. Además, la transición urbana y otros usos de la electricidad tienen un impacto positivo y negativo sustancial en la expansión económica a corto y largo plazo. El resultado sugiere que el suministro eficiente de energía, los precios de la energía de bajo coste, la gestión adecuada de la transición urbana y otros usos de la energía podrían ser útiles para que los responsables políticos alcancen los ODS 7 y 11 en Pakistán. Pakistan is in a terrifying and devastating energy crisis. Recently, the prediction for energy consumption has intensified compared to its production capacity, which is problematic for Pakistan's social and economic stability. Hence, it is vital to examine the link between power consumption, power prices, urban transition, other electricity use, and economic expansion from 1970 to 2018 in Pakistan. For analysis, the second-generation econometric technique of Lee and Strazicich (2013), novel Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (AARDL), and Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) is useful to detect the long-medium and short-run association among the variables. The results show that power consumption stimulates economic expansion in the short and long-run, though the rise in power prices declines economic activity in the short and long-run. Also, urban transition and other electricity use are a substantial positive and negative impact on economic expansion in the short and long-run. The outcome suggests that efficient energy supply, low-cost power prices, proper urban transition management, and other energy use could be useful for policymakers to achieve SDGs 7 and 11 in Pakistan. باكستان في أزمة طاقة مرعبة ومدمرة. في الآونة الأخيرة، تكثف التنبؤ باستهلاك الطاقة مقارنة بقدرته الإنتاجية، مما يمثل مشكلة للاستقرار الاجتماعي والاقتصادي لباكستان. وبالتالي، من الضروري دراسة الصلة بين استهلاك الطاقة وأسعار الطاقة والتحول الحضري واستخدام الكهرباء الأخرى والتوسع الاقتصادي من 1970 إلى 2018 في باكستان. للتحليل، فإن تقنية الاقتصاد القياسي من الجيل الثاني من Lee and Strazicich (2013)، والتأخر الموزع الانحداري الذاتي المعزز (AARDL)، وسببية مجال التردد (FDC) مفيدة للكشف عن الارتباط طويل المدى وقصير المدى بين المتغيرات. تظهر النتائج أن استهلاك الطاقة يحفز التوسع الاقتصادي على المدى القصير والطويل، على الرغم من أن ارتفاع أسعار الطاقة يؤدي إلى انخفاض النشاط الاقتصادي على المدى القصير والطويل. كما أن التحول الحضري والاستخدامات الأخرى للكهرباء لها تأثير إيجابي وسلبي كبير على التوسع الاقتصادي على المدى القصير والطويل. تشير النتيجة إلى أن إمدادات الطاقة الفعالة، وأسعار الطاقة منخفضة التكلفة، وإدارة الانتقال الحضري المناسبة، وغيرها من استخدامات الطاقة يمكن أن تكون مفيدة لصانعي السياسات لتحقيق هدفي التنمية المستدامة 7 و 11 في باكستان.

Since the turn of the century, there has been a growth in the use of e-business by both large and small companies worldwide, a trend that has been given further impetus by the move to online trading in the COVID-19 pandemic era. For small companies, there are the potential benefits of increased efficiencies and market share gain, associated with the re-engineering of selling and marketing processes; but in developing countries, such as Nigeria, research into how small businesses are using e-business systems and technologies is limited. This article builds upon earlier case study research in the Nigerian small business sector to develop a framework for e-business strategy development, implementation and review. Using an inductive approach, data was collected from six small businesses, using interviews and questionnaires, to profile the e-business operations of these companies. This study found that e-business strategy was generally lacking in these companies, but interview material was used to support the development and validation of the strategy framework, which provides a process and a checklist for small businesses pursuing e-business initiatives in developing world environments.

AbstractThe Green Revolution is often seen as epitomising the dawn of scientific and technological advancement and modernity in the agricultural sector across developing countries, a process that unfolded from the 1940s through to the 1980s. Despite the time that has elapsed, this episode of the past continues to resonate today, and still shapes the institutions and practices of agricultural science and technology. In Brazil, China, and India, narratives of science-led agricultural transformations portray that period in glorifying terms—entailing pressing national imperatives, unprecedented achievements, and heroic individuals or organizations. These “epic narratives” draw on the past to produce meaning and empower the actors that deploy them. Epic narratives are reproduced over time and perpetuate a conviction about the heroic power of science and technology in agricultural development. By crafting history and cultivating a sense of scientific nationalism, exceptionalism, and heritage, these epic narratives sustain power-knowledge relations in agricultural science and technology, which are underpinned by a hegemonic modernization paradigm. Unravelling the processes of assemblage and reproduction of epic narratives helps us make sense of how science and technology actors draw on their subjective representations of the past to assert their position in the field at present. This includes making claims about their credentials to envision and deliver sustainable solutions for agriculture into the future.

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine the relevant aspects of the financial and structural specifications proposed in the literature (“mixed” models). Our empirical findings suggest that, irrespective of the shape of the loss function, the class of financial models is to be preferred to time series models. Both financial and time series models are better than mixed and structural models. Results of the Diebold and Mariano test are not conclusive, for the loss differential seems to be statistically insignificant in the large majority of cases. Although the random walk model is not statistically outperformed by any of the alternative models, the empirical findings seem to suggest that theoretically well-grounded financial models are valid instruments for producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price.

Abstract Future gas supply and demand patterns of the European Community are simulated using a gas trade model (GTM). This study is intended to provide an economic background for exploring the future policies of the main suppliers of the Community, the type of price movements that can be expected and the possible role of high cost gas. Simulations are provided for both short-term (1985–1990) and long-term (1995–2000) developments. A decrease in Dutch gas prices, Algeria's price concession and abandonment of high prices for Norwegian gas are the main trends arising from the analysis. They all materialized between 1985 and the first half of 1986.

There are substantial differences in carbon footprints across households. This study applied an environmentally extended multiregional input–output approach to estimate household carbon footprints for 12 different income groups of China’s 30 regions. Subsequently, carbon footprint Gini coefficients were calculated to measure carbon inequality for households across provinces. We found that the top 5% of income earners were responsible for 17% of the national household carbon footprint in 2012, while the bottom half of income earners caused only 25%. Carbon inequality declined with economic growth in China across space and time in two ways: first, carbon footprints showed greater convergence in the wealthier coastal regions than in the poorer inland regions; second, China’s national carbon footprint Gini coefficients declined from 0.44 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2012. We argue that economic growth not only increases income levels but also contributes to an overall reduction in carbon inequality in China.