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Patterns of movement of marine species can reflect strategies of reproduction and dispersal, species’ interactions, trophodynamics, and susceptibility to change, and thus critically inform how we manage populations and ecosystems. On coral reefs, the density and diversity of metazoan taxa is greatest in dead coral and rubble, which is suggested to fuel food webs from the bottom-up. Yet, biomass and secondary productivity in rubble is predominantly available in some of the smallest individuals, limiting how accessible this energy is to higher trophic levels. We address the bioavailability of motile coral reef cryptofauna based on small-scale patterns of emigration in rubble. We deployed modified RUbble Biodiversity Samplers (RUBS) and emergence traps in a shallow rubble patch at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef, to detect community-level differences in the directional influx of motile cryptofauna under five habitat accessibility regimes. The mean density (0.13–4.5 ind.cm-3) and biomass (0.14–5.2 mg.cm-3) of cryptofauna were high and varied depending on microhabitat accessibility. Emergent zooplankton represented a distinct community (dominated by the Appendicularia and Calanoida) with the lowest density and biomass, indicating constraints on nocturnal resource availability. Mean cryptofauna density and biomass were greatest when interstitial access within rubble was blocked, driven by the rapid proliferation of small harpacticoid copepods from the rubble surface, leading to trophic simplification. Individuals with high biomass (e.g., decapods, gobies, and echinoderms) were greatest when interstitial access within rubble was unrestricted. Treatments with a closed rubble surface did not differ from those completely open, suggesting that top-down predation does not diminish rubble-derived resources. Our results show that conspecific cues and species’ interactions (e.g., competition and predation) within rubble are most critical in shaping ecological outcomes within the cryptobiome. These findings have implications for prey accessibility through trophic and community size structuring in rubble, which may become increasingly relevant as benthic reef complexity shifts in the Anthropocene. We address the bioavailability of coral reef cryptofauna in rubble based on small-scale patterns of emigration. We adapted the accessibility of Rubble Biodiversity Samplers (RUBS), models used to standardise biodiversity sampling in rubble (Wolfe and Mumby 2020), to explore the local movement patterns of rubble-dwelling fauna, with inference to predation processes within and beyond the cryptobenthos. Five treatments were developed to detect community-level differences in the directional influx of motile cryptofauna under various habitat accessibility regimes. Four of these treatments were developed by modifying accessibility into RUBS (https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:4176644/files) to understand limitations on the directional influx and movement of cryptofauna within coral rubble patches using four treatments; (1) open (completely accessible), (2) interstitial access (top closed), (3) surficial access (sides and bottom closed), and (4) raised (above rubble substratum). The fifth treatment involved a series of emergence plankton traps, designed to target demersal cryptofauna that vertically migrate from within the rubble benthos at night, given emergent zooplankton biomass and diversity are greatest at night. Fieldwork was conducted over several weeks (11th September to 5th October 2021) in a shallow (~3–5 m depth) reef slope site on the southern margin of Heron Island (-23˚26.845’ S, 151˚54.732’ E), Great Barrier Reef, Australia (Fig. 1). All collections were conducted under the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority permit G20/44613.1.

Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve.

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

AbstractClimate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.

Coastal communities in the Coral Triangle are increasingly threatened by climate change. Sea-level rise (SLR) will result in biophysical and socioeconomic impacts that could increase the loss of livelihoods, cultural heritage and infrastructure. Effective adaptation requires a holistic approach that incorporates scientific knowledge together with local and traditional knowledge. Community-based adaptation built on local knowledge is of great value for environmental management, particularly when scientific data are lacking. This article reports a case study that integrated traditional and scientific knowledge using participatory three-dimensional modeling (P3DM) in BoeBoe village, Solomon Islands. P3DM is a process by which members of the local community build a physical terrain model and overlay it with the location of important resources such as protected areas or harvesting sites. Additionally, SLR inundation scenarios based on surveyed elevations were incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS), allowing for a real-time integration of science with local knowledge. Despite discrepancies in scales and accuracy, information from both the P3DM and GIS were complementary. The process, itself, provided a forum for discussion between many members of the village who would normally not be involved and highlighted the importance of community engagement when building capacity for adaptation to climate change.

AbstractMultinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making.

AbstractREDD+ presents novel options for conservation in the tropics, yet it is unclear how biodiversity‐focused organizations or actors should react to these carbon‐focused opportunities. Here, we critically assess for the first time the expected outcomes of five contrasting scenarios of engagement between a biodiversity actor and REDD+. We discover that in the Berau regency, Indonesia, it is usually beneficial for a biodiversity actor to react in some way to REDD+, but the preferred reaction depends on whether a REDD+ project is already developing in the region, and the scale and type of conservation objectives. In general, from a strict biodiversity perspective, the most cost efficient reaction to the presence of REDD+ is to use biodiversity funds to protect areas neglected by REDD+. Our results demonstrate that if biodiversity actors fail to adapt the way they pursue conservation in the tropics, REDD+ opportunities could go largely untapped.