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Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review

AbstractClimate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.
- Minnesota State University Moorhead United States
- Stanford University United States
- University of Melbourne Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Australia
- University of Queensland Australia
climate effect, land use change, Carbon sequestration, 2300 Environmental Science, Conservation of Natural Resources, Climate, Climate Change, resource allocation, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, Food provision, decision making, 333, Humans, resource management, human, uncertainty analysis, Global change, environmental protection, global change, Cumulative impacts, Ecosystem, Global warming, Uncertainty, carbon sequestration, ecosystem service, food supply, 2304 Environmental Chemistry, Decision making, 2303 Ecology
climate effect, land use change, Carbon sequestration, 2300 Environmental Science, Conservation of Natural Resources, Climate, Climate Change, resource allocation, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, Food provision, decision making, 333, Humans, resource management, human, uncertainty analysis, Global change, environmental protection, global change, Cumulative impacts, Ecosystem, Global warming, Uncertainty, carbon sequestration, ecosystem service, food supply, 2304 Environmental Chemistry, Decision making, 2303 Ecology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).198 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
