• Energy Research
• Open Access close
• Closed Access close
• GB close
• EU close
• DK close
• Energies close

Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German electricity price spreads between different hours of the day, as revealed in the day-ahead auctions. The four specifications of the density functions are dynamic and conditional upon exogenous drivers, thereby permitting the location, scale and shape parameters of the densities to respond hourly to such factors as weather and demand forecasts. The best fitting and forecasting specifications for each spread are selected based on the Pinball Loss function, following the closed-form analytical solutions of the cumulative distribution functions.

Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German electricity price spreads between different hours of the day, as revealed in the day-ahead auctions. The four specifications of the density functions are dynamic and conditional upon exogenous drivers, thereby permitting the location, scale and shape parameters of the densities to respond hourly to such factors as weather and demand forecasts. The best fitting and forecasting specifications for each spread are selected based on the Pinball Loss function, following the closed-form analytical solutions of the cumulative distribution functions.

Biogas production is a clean renewable energy source that can improve lives in developing countries. However, winter temperatures in some areas are too low to enable enough biogas production in small unheated digesters to meet the energy requirements of households. Low-cost, high yield reactors adapted to the local climate are needed in those situations. A decision-support model was developed to assist in the design of biogas reactors capable of meeting households’ year-round energy needs. Monthly biogas production relative to household energy needs was calculated for the scenario of suburban Hanoi, Vietnam. Calculations included pig number, slurry (manure water mixture) dilution, retention time and biogas/solar heating. Although using biogas to heat the digester increased biogas production, it did not lead to an energy surplus, particularly with the 1:9 slurry dilution rate commonly used on pig farms. However, at a 1:3 slurry dilution, the use of solar heating to provide 90% and biogas 10% of the heat required to heat the digester to 35 °C improved the biogas production by 50% compared to psychrophilic production. The energy needs of an average five-person family throughout the year required 17 fattening pigs. This model can establish the best solution for producing sufficient energy throughout the year.

Biogas production is a clean renewable energy source that can improve lives in developing countries. However, winter temperatures in some areas are too low to enable enough biogas production in small unheated digesters to meet the energy requirements of households. Low-cost, high yield reactors adapted to the local climate are needed in those situations. A decision-support model was developed to assist in the design of biogas reactors capable of meeting households’ year-round energy needs. Monthly biogas production relative to household energy needs was calculated for the scenario of suburban Hanoi, Vietnam. Calculations included pig number, slurry (manure water mixture) dilution, retention time and biogas/solar heating. Although using biogas to heat the digester increased biogas production, it did not lead to an energy surplus, particularly with the 1:9 slurry dilution rate commonly used on pig farms. However, at a 1:3 slurry dilution, the use of solar heating to provide 90% and biogas 10% of the heat required to heat the digester to 35 °C improved the biogas production by 50% compared to psychrophilic production. The energy needs of an average five-person family throughout the year required 17 fattening pigs. This model can establish the best solution for producing sufficient energy throughout the year.

Results-based financing (RBF) programmes in the clean cooking sector have gained increasing donor interest over the last decade. Although the risks and advantages of RBF have been discussed quite extensively for other sectors, especially health services, there is limited research-documented experience of its application to clean cooking. Due to the sheer scale of the important transition from ‘dirty’ to clean cooking for the 4 billion people who lack access, especially in the Global South, efficient and performance-proven solutions are urgently required. This paper, undertaken as part of the work of the UKAid-funded Modern Energy Cooking Services (MECS) programme, aims to close an important research gap by reviewing evidence-based support mechanisms and documenting essential experiences from previous and ongoing RBF programmes in the clean cooking and other sectors. On this basis, the paper derives key strategic implications and learning lessons for the global scaling of RBF programmes and finds that qualitative key performance indicators such as consumer acceptance as well as longer-term monitoring are critical long-term success factors for RBF to ensure the continued uptake and use of clean cooking solutions (CCS), however securing the inclusion of these indicators within programmes remains challenging. Finally, by discussing the opportunities for the evolution of RBF into broader impact funding programmes and the integration of energy access and clean cooking strategies through multi-sector approaches, the paper illustrates potential steps to enhance the impact of RBF in this sector in the future.

Results-based financing (RBF) programmes in the clean cooking sector have gained increasing donor interest over the last decade. Although the risks and advantages of RBF have been discussed quite extensively for other sectors, especially health services, there is limited research-documented experience of its application to clean cooking. Due to the sheer scale of the important transition from ‘dirty’ to clean cooking for the 4 billion people who lack access, especially in the Global South, efficient and performance-proven solutions are urgently required. This paper, undertaken as part of the work of the UKAid-funded Modern Energy Cooking Services (MECS) programme, aims to close an important research gap by reviewing evidence-based support mechanisms and documenting essential experiences from previous and ongoing RBF programmes in the clean cooking and other sectors. On this basis, the paper derives key strategic implications and learning lessons for the global scaling of RBF programmes and finds that qualitative key performance indicators such as consumer acceptance as well as longer-term monitoring are critical long-term success factors for RBF to ensure the continued uptake and use of clean cooking solutions (CCS), however securing the inclusion of these indicators within programmes remains challenging. Finally, by discussing the opportunities for the evolution of RBF into broader impact funding programmes and the integration of energy access and clean cooking strategies through multi-sector approaches, the paper illustrates potential steps to enhance the impact of RBF in this sector in the future.