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In this paper, the immiscible water-alternating-CO2 flooding process at the LH11-1 oilfield, offshore Guangdong Province, was firstly evaluated using full-field reservoir simulation models. Based on a 3D geological model and oil production history, 16 scenarios of water-alternating-CO2 injection operations with different water alternating gas (WAG) ratios and slug sizes, as well as continuous CO2 injection (Con-CO2) and primary depletion production (No-CO2) scenarios, have been simulated spanning 20 years. The results represent a significant improvement in oil recovery by CO2 WAG over both Con-CO2 and No-CO2 scenarios. The WAG ratio and slug size of water affect the efficiency of oil recovery and CO2 injection. The optimum operations are those with WAG ratios lower than 1:2, which have the higher ultimate oil recovery factor of 24%. Although WAG reduced the CO2 injection volume, the CO2 storage efficiency is still high, more than 84% of the injected CO2 was sequestered in the reservoir. Results indicate that the immiscible water-alternating-CO2 processes can be optimized to improve significantly the performance of pressure maintenance and oil recovery in offshore reef heavy-oil reservoirs significantly. The simulation results suggest that the LH11-1 field is a good candidate site for immiscible CO2 enhanced oil recovery and storage for the Guangdong carbon capture, utilization and storage (GDCCUS) project.

AbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

We investigated heavy metal contamination in soils and plants at polluted sites in China including some with heavy industries, metal mining, smelting and untreated wastewater irrigation areas. We report our main findings in this paper. The concentrations of heavy metals, including Cd and Zn, in the soils at the investigated sites were above the background levels, and generally exceeded the Government guidelines for metals in soil. The concentrations of metals in plants served to indicate the metal contamination status of the site, and also revealed the abilities of various plant species to take up and accumulate the metals from the soil. Substantial differences in the accumulation of heavy metals were observed among the plant species investigated. Polygonum hydropiper growing on contaminated soils in a sewage pond had accumulated 1061 mg kg(-1) of Zn in its shoots. Rumex acetosa L. growing near a smelter had accumulated more than 900 mg kg(-1) of Zn both in its shoots and roots. Therefore these species have potential for phytoremediation of metal-contaminated sites. Our results indicate the need to elucidate the dynamics of soil metal contamination of plants and the onward movement of metal contaminants into the food chain. Also our results indicate that the consumption of rice grown in paddy soils contaminated with Cd, Cr or Zn may pose a serious risk to human health, because from 24 to 22% of the total metal content in the rice biomass was concentrated in the rice grain. Platanus acerifolia growing on heavily contaminated soil accumulated only very low levels of heavy metals, and this mechanism for excluding metal uptake may have value in crop improvement. Sources of metal entering the environmental matrices studied included untreated wastewater, tailings or slurries and dust depositions from metal ore mining, and sewage sludge. Pb, Zn or Cd concentrations declined with the distance from metal smelter in accordance with a good exponential correlation (R2>0.9), and this shows that metal dust deposition is an important contributor to metal contamination of soils.

Madagascar experienced a major faunal turnover near the end of the first millenium CE that particularly affected terrestrial, large-bodied vertebrate species. Teasing apart the relative impacts of people and climate on this event requires a focus on regional records with good chronological control. These records may document coeval changes in rainfall, faunal composition, and human activities. Here we present new paleontological and paleoclimatological data from southwestern Madagascar, the driest part of the island today. We collected over 1500 subfossil bones from deposits at a coastal site called Antsirafaly and from both flooded and dry cave deposits at Tsimanampesotse National Park. We built a chronology of Late Holocene changes in faunal assemblages based on 65 radiocarbon-dated specimens and subfossil associations. We collected stalagmites primarily within Tsimanampesotse but also at two additional locations in southern Madagascar. These provided information regarding hydroclimate variability over the past 120,000 years. Prior research has supported a primary role for drought (rather than humans) in triggering faunal turnover at Tsimanampesotse. This is based on evidence of: (1) a large freshwater ecosystem west of what is now the hypersaline Lake Tsimanampesotse, which supported freshwater mollusks and waterfowl (including animals that could not survive on resources offered by the hypersaline lake today); (2) abundant now-extinct terrestrial vertebrates; (3) regional decline or disappearance of certain tree species; and (4) scant local human presence. Our new data allow us to document the hydroclimate of the subarid southwest during the Holocene, as well as shifts in faunal composition (including local extirpations, large-vertebrate population collapse, and the appearance of introduced species). These records affirm that climate alone cannot have produced the observed vertebrate turnover in the southwest. Human activity, including the introduction of cattle, as well as associated changes in habitat exploitation, also played an important role.

Endorheic basins (i.e., land-locked drainage networks) and their lakes can be highly sensitive to variations in climate and adverse anthropogenic activities, such as overexploitation of water resources. In this review paper, we provide a brief overview of one major endorheic basin on each continent, plus a number of endorheic basins in Central Asia (CA), a region where a large proportion of the land area is within this type of basin. We summarize the effects of (changing) climate drivers and land surface–atmosphere feedbacks on the water balance. For the CA region, we also discuss key anthropogenic activities, related water management approaches and their complex relationship with political and policy issues. In CA a substantial increase in irrigated agriculture coupled with negative climate change impacts have disrupted the fragile water balance for many endorheic basins and their lakes. Transboundary integrated land and water management approaches must be developed to facilitate adequate climate change adaptation and possible mitigation of the adverse anthropogenic influence on endorheic basins in CA. Suitable climate adaptation, mitigation and efficient natural resource management technologies and methods are available, and are developing fast. A number of these are discussed in the paper, but these technologies alone are not sufficient to address pressing water resource issues in CA. Food–water–energy nexus analyses demonstrate that transboundary endorheic basin management requires transformational changes with involvement of all key stakeholders. Regional programs, supported by local governments and international donors, which incorporate advanced adaptation technologies, water resource research and management capacity development, are essential for successful climate change adaptation efforts in CA. However, there is a need for an accelerated uptake of such programs, with an emphasis on unification of approaches, as the pressures resulting from climate change and aggravated by human mismanagement of natural water resources leave very little time for hesitation.

Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are severely altering the volume and timing of water supplied from High Mountain Asia, adversely affecting downstream food and energy systems that are relied on by billions of people. The construction of more reservoirs designed to regulate streamflow and produce hydropower is a critical part of strategies for adapting to these changes. However, these projects are vulnerable to a complex set of interacting processes that are destabilizing landscapes throughout the region. Ranging in severity and the pace of change, these processes include glacial retreat and detachments, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock–ice avalanches, debris flows and outburst floods from glacial lakes and landslide-dammed lakes. The result is large amounts of sediment being mobilized that can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure and degrade power turbines. Here we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance measures and sustainable sediment management solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient dams and reservoirs in High Mountain Asia, in large part based on improved monitoring and prediction of compound and cascading hazards.