- EC| EMME-CARE
Rafael de Castro Catão; Theo Economou;Rafael de Castro Catão
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRafael de Castro Catão in OpenAIRE
Christovam Barcellos; Christovam Barcellos
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristovam Barcellos in OpenAIRE Rachel Lowe; +2 AuthorsRachel Lowe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRachel Lowe in OpenAIRE Rafael de Castro Catão; Theo Economou;Rafael de Castro Catão
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRafael de Castro Catão in OpenAIRE Christovam Barcellos; Christovam Barcellos
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristovam Barcellos in OpenAIRE Rachel Lowe; Rachel Lowe;Rachel Lowe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRachel Lowe in OpenAIRE Sophie A Lee; Sophie A Lee
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSophie A Lee in OpenAIREAbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.
38 citations 38 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% 
Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1101/2021.09.16.21263065&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| EMME-CARE Rafael de Castro Catão; Theo Economou;
Rafael de Castro Catão
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRafael de Castro Catão in OpenAIRE Christovam Barcellos; Christovam Barcellos
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristovam Barcellos in OpenAIRE Rachel Lowe; +2 AuthorsRachel Lowe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRachel Lowe in OpenAIRE Rafael de Castro Catão; Theo Economou;Rafael de Castro Catão
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRafael de Castro Catão in OpenAIRE Christovam Barcellos; Christovam Barcellos
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristovam Barcellos in OpenAIRE Rachel Lowe; Rachel Lowe;Rachel Lowe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRachel Lowe in OpenAIRE Sophie A Lee; Sophie A Lee
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSophie A Lee in OpenAIREAbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.
38 citations 38 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1101/2021.09.16.21263065&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Yasuaki Hijioka; Glenn R. McGregor; Saneyuki Takano; Yasushi Honda; +7 Authors
Glenn R. McGregor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGlenn R. McGregor in OpenAIREYasuaki Hijioka; Glenn R. McGregor; Saneyuki Takano; Yasushi Honda; Masahide Kondo;Glenn R. McGregor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGlenn R. McGregor in OpenAIRE Simon Hales; Ho Kim;Simon Hales
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon Hales in OpenAIRE R. Sari Kovats; R. Sari Kovats
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileR. Sari Kovats in OpenAIRE Kazutaka Oka; Kazutaka Oka
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKazutaka Oka in OpenAIRE Yue-Leon Guo; Minoru Yoshikawa;Yue-Leon Guo
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYue-Leon Guo in OpenAIREWe previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model.We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the "counterfactual method" to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation.We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050.Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.
Access Routesgold 144 citations 144 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Yasuaki Hijioka; Glenn R. McGregor; Saneyuki Takano; Yasushi Honda; +7 Authors
Glenn R. McGregor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGlenn R. McGregor in OpenAIREYasuaki Hijioka; Glenn R. McGregor; Saneyuki Takano; Yasushi Honda; Masahide Kondo;Glenn R. McGregor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGlenn R. McGregor in OpenAIRE Simon Hales; Ho Kim;Simon Hales
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon Hales in OpenAIRE R. Sari Kovats; R. Sari Kovats
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileR. Sari Kovats in OpenAIRE Kazutaka Oka; Kazutaka Oka
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKazutaka Oka in OpenAIRE Yue-Leon Guo; Minoru Yoshikawa;Yue-Leon Guo
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYue-Leon Guo in OpenAIREWe previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model.We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the "counterfactual method" to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation.We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050.Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.
Access Routesgold 144 citations 144 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Access Routes
Green hybrid 33 citations 33 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.046&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Access Routes
Green hybrid 33 citations 33 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.046&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - FCT| D4Parham, P.E.; Pople, D.; Christiansen-Junct, C.; Lindsay, S.W.; +2 Authors
Lindsay, S.W.
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLindsay, S.W. in OpenAIREParham, P.E.; Pople, D.; Christiansen-Junct, C.; Lindsay, S.W.; Winsley, W.; Michael, E.;Lindsay, S.W.
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLindsay, S.W. in OpenAIREThe impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables.Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables.A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations.Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities.
Access RoutesGreen gold 63 citations 63 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1186/1475-2875-11-271&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - FCT| D4Parham, P.E.; Pople, D.; Christiansen-Junct, C.; Lindsay, S.W.; +2 Authors
Lindsay, S.W.
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLindsay, S.W. in OpenAIREParham, P.E.; Pople, D.; Christiansen-Junct, C.; Lindsay, S.W.; Winsley, W.; Michael, E.;Lindsay, S.W.
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLindsay, S.W. in OpenAIREThe impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables.Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables.A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations.Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities.
Access RoutesGreen gold 63 citations 63 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1186/1475-2875-11-271&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu • Local authority health professionals perceive climate change as a risk to health in the UK.
9 citations 9 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.puhe.2015.12.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu• Local authority health professionals perceive climate change as a risk to health in the UK.
9 citations 9 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.puhe.2015.12.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu- Coulthard, Tom; Kossoff, David; Howard, Andy J.; Knight, David; +2 Authors
Coulthard, Tom
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCoulthard, Tom in OpenAIRE Coulthard, Tom; Kossoff, David; Howard, Andy J.; Knight, David; Hudson-Edwards, Karen; Malone, Steve;Coulthard, Tom
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCoulthard, Tom in OpenAIREFuture climate change is likely to pose significant challenges for heritage management, especially in landscape settings, such as river valleys as the magnitude, intensity and nature of geomorphological processes alter in response to changing threshold conditions. Industrial landscapes afford particular challenges for the heritage community, not only because the location of these historic remains is often intimately linked to the physical environment, but also because these landscapes can be heavily polluted by former (industrial) processes and, if released, the legacy of contaminants trapped in floodplain soils and sediments can exacerbate erosion and denudation. Responding to these challenges requires the development of methodologies that consider landscape change beyond individual sites and monuments and this paper reports the development of such an approach based on investigation of the Derwent Valley Mills World Heritage Site, Derbyshire, UK. Information on geomorphological evolution of the Derwent Valley over the last 1000 years, a time period encompassing the last two periods of major climatic deterioration, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, has been dovetailed with archaeological and geochemical records to assess how the landscape has evolved to past landscape change. However, in addition to assessing past evolution, this methodology uses national climate change scenarios to predict future river change using the CAESAR-Lisflood model. Comparison of the results of this model to the spatial distribution of World Heritage Site assets highlights zones on the valley floor where pro-active mitigation might be required. The geomorphological and environmental science communities have long used predictive computer modelling to help understand and manage landscapes and this paper highlights an approach and area of research cross-over that would be beneficial for future heritage management.
Access RoutesGreen bronze 33 citations 33 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.culher.2015.11.007&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Coulthard, Tom; Kossoff, David; Howard, Andy J.; Knight, David; +2 Authors
Coulthard, Tom
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCoulthard, Tom in OpenAIRE Coulthard, Tom; Kossoff, David; Howard, Andy J.; Knight, David; Hudson-Edwards, Karen; Malone, Steve;Coulthard, Tom
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCoulthard, Tom in OpenAIREFuture climate change is likely to pose significant challenges for heritage management, especially in landscape settings, such as river valleys as the magnitude, intensity and nature of geomorphological processes alter in response to changing threshold conditions. Industrial landscapes afford particular challenges for the heritage community, not only because the location of these historic remains is often intimately linked to the physical environment, but also because these landscapes can be heavily polluted by former (industrial) processes and, if released, the legacy of contaminants trapped in floodplain soils and sediments can exacerbate erosion and denudation. Responding to these challenges requires the development of methodologies that consider landscape change beyond individual sites and monuments and this paper reports the development of such an approach based on investigation of the Derwent Valley Mills World Heritage Site, Derbyshire, UK. Information on geomorphological evolution of the Derwent Valley over the last 1000 years, a time period encompassing the last two periods of major climatic deterioration, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, has been dovetailed with archaeological and geochemical records to assess how the landscape has evolved to past landscape change. However, in addition to assessing past evolution, this methodology uses national climate change scenarios to predict future river change using the CAESAR-Lisflood model. Comparison of the results of this model to the spatial distribution of World Heritage Site assets highlights zones on the valley floor where pro-active mitigation might be required. The geomorphological and environmental science communities have long used predictive computer modelling to help understand and manage landscapes and this paper highlights an approach and area of research cross-over that would be beneficial for future heritage management.
Access RoutesGreen bronze 33 citations 33 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.culher.2015.11.007&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Urban, Frauke;
Urban, Frauke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileUrban, Frauke in OpenAIRE Nordensvard, Johan; Nordensvard, Johan
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileNordensvard, Johan in OpenAIRE Siciliano, Giuseppina; Siciliano, Giuseppina
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSiciliano, Giuseppina in OpenAIRE Li, Bingqin; Li, Bingqin
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLi, Bingqin in OpenAIREAbstractThere is a shortage of empirical studies on the relationship between Chinese hydropower dams and social sustainability. Comparative research on Chinese‐funded and Chinese‐built hydropower projects is rare. This article aims to fill parts of this gap by discussing these issues in relation to Chinese overseas hydropower dams in Ghana (Bui Dam) and Cambodia (Kamchay Dam). Both projects are built by Sinohydro and financed by ExIm Bank. This article draws on in‐depths interviews and focus group discussions with local communities affected by the dams, institutional actors in Ghana and Cambodia, Chinese actors, and dam builders. The article uses an environmental justice perspective as an analytical framework. The article concludes that the dam projects could improve their social sustainability framework in practice and theory; social benchmarking should be introduced and social policies need to be improved to be in line with international social standards on hydropower projects.
Access RoutesGreen gold 47 citations 47 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/app5.103&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Urban, Frauke;
Urban, Frauke
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileUrban, Frauke in OpenAIRE Nordensvard, Johan; Nordensvard, Johan
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileNordensvard, Johan in OpenAIRE Siciliano, Giuseppina; Siciliano, Giuseppina
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSiciliano, Giuseppina in OpenAIRE Li, Bingqin; Li, Bingqin
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLi, Bingqin in OpenAIREAbstractThere is a shortage of empirical studies on the relationship between Chinese hydropower dams and social sustainability. Comparative research on Chinese‐funded and Chinese‐built hydropower projects is rare. This article aims to fill parts of this gap by discussing these issues in relation to Chinese overseas hydropower dams in Ghana (Bui Dam) and Cambodia (Kamchay Dam). Both projects are built by Sinohydro and financed by ExIm Bank. This article draws on in‐depths interviews and focus group discussions with local communities affected by the dams, institutional actors in Ghana and Cambodia, Chinese actors, and dam builders. The article uses an environmental justice perspective as an analytical framework. The article concludes that the dam projects could improve their social sustainability framework in practice and theory; social benchmarking should be introduced and social policies need to be improved to be in line with international social standards on hydropower projects.
Access RoutesGreen gold 47 citations 47 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/app5.103&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Mónica Berger-González;
Mónica Berger-González
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMónica Berger-González in OpenAIRE Francesca Scotti; Francesca Scotti
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrancesca Scotti in OpenAIRE Ana Isabel Garcia; Alan Hesketh; +3 AuthorsAna Isabel Garcia
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAna Isabel Garcia in OpenAIRE Mónica Berger-González; Mónica Berger-González
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMónica Berger-González in OpenAIRE Francesca Scotti; Francesca Scotti
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrancesca Scotti in OpenAIRE Ana Isabel Garcia; Alan Hesketh;Ana Isabel Garcia
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAna Isabel Garcia in OpenAIRE Martin Hitziger; Martin Hitziger
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMartin Hitziger in OpenAIRE Ian D. Thompson; Ian D. Thompson
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesIan D. Thompson in OpenAIRE Michael Heinrich; Michael Heinrich
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMichael Heinrich in OpenAIREThe implementation of access and benefit-sharing (ABS) protocols, and especially the Nagoya Protocol, has created new hurdles for international collaborations around Indigenous Traditional Knowledge. Overall, these frameworks push for the development of novel collaborative North–South agendas to improve the fair distribution of benefits. The Green Health Project (Guatemala) aims to implement a culturally pertinent and mutually accepted framework for sustainable use, as well as ABS of traditional medicinal plants. It involves developing a consensus among Indigenous groups, government officials, industry, and academia. We describe steps undertaken to design and implement an intercultural transdisciplinary process that promotes trust building and advances herbal medicine research in a respectful and innovative way. This involves joint definition of goals and methods. The consortium co-researched Q’eqchi’ Maya traditional medicine, collected voucher specimens of medicinal plants with traditional Healers, identified their taxa, and later developed a literature-based evaluation identifying species for potential product development. No samples for further research and development were collected. By applying the emic–etic concept, the project helped improve understanding of the main drivers of each stakeholder and the associated obstacles for reaching an ABS agreement. The project also explored the emergence of potential new drivers for developing evidence-based herbal medicine from the perspectives of academia, policy, cooperation, and grassroots Indigenous movements.
Access Routeshybrid 2 citations 2 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1139/cjb-2021-0070&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Mónica Berger-González;
Mónica Berger-González
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMónica Berger-González in OpenAIRE Francesca Scotti; Francesca Scotti
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrancesca Scotti in OpenAIRE Ana Isabel Garcia; Alan Hesketh; +3 AuthorsAna Isabel Garcia
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAna Isabel Garcia in OpenAIRE Mónica Berger-González; Mónica Berger-González
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMónica Berger-González in OpenAIRE Francesca Scotti; Francesca Scotti
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrancesca Scotti in OpenAIRE Ana Isabel Garcia; Alan Hesketh;Ana Isabel Garcia
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAna Isabel Garcia in OpenAIRE Martin Hitziger; Martin Hitziger
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMartin Hitziger in OpenAIRE Ian D. Thompson; Ian D. Thompson
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesIan D. Thompson in OpenAIRE Michael Heinrich; Michael Heinrich
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMichael Heinrich in OpenAIREThe implementation of access and benefit-sharing (ABS) protocols, and especially the Nagoya Protocol, has created new hurdles for international collaborations around Indigenous Traditional Knowledge. Overall, these frameworks push for the development of novel collaborative North–South agendas to improve the fair distribution of benefits. The Green Health Project (Guatemala) aims to implement a culturally pertinent and mutually accepted framework for sustainable use, as well as ABS of traditional medicinal plants. It involves developing a consensus among Indigenous groups, government officials, industry, and academia. We describe steps undertaken to design and implement an intercultural transdisciplinary process that promotes trust building and advances herbal medicine research in a respectful and innovative way. This involves joint definition of goals and methods. The consortium co-researched Q’eqchi’ Maya traditional medicine, collected voucher specimens of medicinal plants with traditional Healers, identified their taxa, and later developed a literature-based evaluation identifying species for potential product development. No samples for further research and development were collected. By applying the emic–etic concept, the project helped improve understanding of the main drivers of each stakeholder and the associated obstacles for reaching an ABS agreement. The project also explored the emergence of potential new drivers for developing evidence-based herbal medicine from the perspectives of academia, policy, cooperation, and grassroots Indigenous movements.
Access Routeshybrid 2 citations 2 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1139/cjb-2021-0070&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| MAT_STOCKS William F. Lamb;
William F. Lamb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileWilliam F. Lamb in OpenAIRE Thomas Wiedmann; Thomas Wiedmann
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Wiedmann in OpenAIRE Julia Pongratz; Julia Pongratz
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJulia Pongratz in OpenAIRE Robbie M. Andrew; +24 AuthorsRobbie M. Andrew
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRobbie M. Andrew in OpenAIRE William F. Lamb; William F. Lamb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileWilliam F. Lamb in OpenAIRE Thomas Wiedmann; Thomas Wiedmann
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Wiedmann in OpenAIRE Julia Pongratz; Julia Pongratz
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJulia Pongratz in OpenAIRE Robbie M. Andrew; Robbie M. Andrew
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRobbie M. Andrew in OpenAIRE Monica Crippa; J. G. J. Olivier;Monica Crippa
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMonica Crippa in OpenAIRE Dominik Wiedenhofer; Dominik Wiedenhofer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDominik Wiedenhofer in OpenAIRE Giulio Mattioli; Giulio Mattioli
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGiulio Mattioli in OpenAIRE Alaa Al Khourdajie; Alaa Al Khourdajie
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAlaa Al Khourdajie in OpenAIRE Joanna I. House; Joanna I. House
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJoanna I. House in OpenAIRE Shonali Pachauri; Shonali Pachauri
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileShonali Pachauri in OpenAIRE María Figueroa; María Figueroa
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMaría Figueroa in OpenAIRE Yamina Saheb; Yamina Saheb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYamina Saheb in OpenAIRE Raphael Slade; Raphael Slade
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRaphael Slade in OpenAIRE Klaus Hubacek; Laixiang Sun; Suzana Kahn Ribeiro; Smail Khennas;Klaus Hubacek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKlaus Hubacek in OpenAIRE Stéphane de la Rue du Can; Stéphane de la Rue du Can
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileStéphane de la Rue du Can in OpenAIRE Lazarus Chapungu; Lazarus Chapungu
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLazarus Chapungu in OpenAIRE Steven J. Davis; Steven J. Davis
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSteven J. Davis in OpenAIRE I. A. Bashmakov; I. A. Bashmakov
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesI. A. Bashmakov in OpenAIRE Hancheng Dai; Hancheng Dai
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesHancheng Dai in OpenAIRE Shobhakar Dhakal; Shobhakar Dhakal
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesShobhakar Dhakal in OpenAIRE Xianjun Tan; Xianjun Tan
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesXianjun Tan in OpenAIRE Yong Geng; Baihe Gu; Jan C. Minx; Jan C. Minx
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJan C. Minx in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
Access RoutesGreen gold add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/abee4e&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| MAT_STOCKS William F. Lamb;
William F. Lamb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileWilliam F. Lamb in OpenAIRE Thomas Wiedmann; Thomas Wiedmann
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Wiedmann in OpenAIRE Julia Pongratz; Julia Pongratz
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJulia Pongratz in OpenAIRE Robbie M. Andrew; +24 AuthorsRobbie M. Andrew
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRobbie M. Andrew in OpenAIRE William F. Lamb; William F. Lamb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileWilliam F. Lamb in OpenAIRE Thomas Wiedmann; Thomas Wiedmann
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Wiedmann in OpenAIRE Julia Pongratz; Julia Pongratz
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJulia Pongratz in OpenAIRE Robbie M. Andrew; Robbie M. Andrew
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesRobbie M. Andrew in OpenAIRE Monica Crippa; J. G. J. Olivier;Monica Crippa
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMonica Crippa in OpenAIRE Dominik Wiedenhofer; Dominik Wiedenhofer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDominik Wiedenhofer in OpenAIRE Giulio Mattioli; Giulio Mattioli
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGiulio Mattioli in OpenAIRE Alaa Al Khourdajie; Alaa Al Khourdajie
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAlaa Al Khourdajie in OpenAIRE Joanna I. House; Joanna I. House
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJoanna I. House in OpenAIRE Shonali Pachauri; Shonali Pachauri
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileShonali Pachauri in OpenAIRE María Figueroa; María Figueroa
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesMaría Figueroa in OpenAIRE Yamina Saheb; Yamina Saheb
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYamina Saheb in OpenAIRE Raphael Slade; Raphael Slade
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileRaphael Slade in OpenAIRE Klaus Hubacek; Laixiang Sun; Suzana Kahn Ribeiro; Smail Khennas;Klaus Hubacek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKlaus Hubacek in OpenAIRE Stéphane de la Rue du Can; Stéphane de la Rue du Can
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileStéphane de la Rue du Can in OpenAIRE Lazarus Chapungu; Lazarus Chapungu
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLazarus Chapungu in OpenAIRE Steven J. Davis; Steven J. Davis
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSteven J. Davis in OpenAIRE I. A. Bashmakov; I. A. Bashmakov
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesI. A. Bashmakov in OpenAIRE Hancheng Dai; Hancheng Dai
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesHancheng Dai in OpenAIRE Shobhakar Dhakal; Shobhakar Dhakal
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesShobhakar Dhakal in OpenAIRE Xianjun Tan; Xianjun Tan
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesXianjun Tan in OpenAIRE Yong Geng; Baihe Gu; Jan C. Minx; Jan C. Minx
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJan C. Minx in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
Access RoutesGreen gold add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/abee4e&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Petr Havlik; Stephane Hallegatte; Mook Bangalore; Mook Bangalore; +5 Authors
Petr Havlik
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FilePetr Havlik in OpenAIRE Petr Havlik; Stephane Hallegatte; Mook Bangalore; Mook Bangalore; Julie Rozenberg;Petr Havlik
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FilePetr Havlik in OpenAIRE R. Sari Kovats; R. Sari Kovats
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileR. Sari Kovats in OpenAIRE Simon J. Lloyd; Simon J. Lloyd
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon J. Lloyd in OpenAIRE Hugo Valin; Zaid Chalabi;Hugo Valin
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHugo Valin in OpenAIREIn 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.
Access RoutesGreen gold 27 citations 27 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1289/ehp2916&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - Petr Havlik; Stephane Hallegatte; Mook Bangalore; Mook Bangalore; +5 Authors
Petr Havlik
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FilePetr Havlik in OpenAIRE Petr Havlik; Stephane Hallegatte; Mook Bangalore; Mook Bangalore; Julie Rozenberg;Petr Havlik
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FilePetr Havlik in OpenAIRE R. Sari Kovats; R. Sari Kovats
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileR. Sari Kovats in OpenAIRE Simon J. Lloyd; Simon J. Lloyd
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon J. Lloyd in OpenAIRE Hugo Valin; Zaid Chalabi;Hugo Valin
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHugo Valin in OpenAIREIn 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.
Access RoutesGreen gold 27 citations 27 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1289/ehp2916&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu
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