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Исследование ландшафтов всегда было традиционным научным направлением географии. В России подобная направленность исследований остаётся актуальной, несмотря на то, что термины «геоэкология» и «ландшафтная экология» сегодня более распространены в англоязычном научном сообществе. Наш краткий обзор показывает значительное ускорение антропогенных ландшафтных изменений в Европе, Центральной Азии и азиатской части России за последние пять десятилетий. Ландшафтные исследования в антропоцене должны быть направлены на достижение и сохранение устойчивости ландшафта при его высокой производительности, что включает в себя прекращение деградации ландшафтов, развитие культурных и сохранение природных ландшафтов. Чистая вода и чистый воздух, плодородные и здоровые почвы для производства продуктов питания и других экосистемных услуг, а также биологически разнообразная зеленая среда являются атрибутами ландшафтов, обеспечивающих выживание и благополучие населения. Дисциплинарные и междисциплинарные исследования должны генерировать знания, инновации и правила принятия действенных решений. Генерация знаний в глобализованном мире основана на сборе больших массивов данных и моделировании сценариев. Международные длительные полевые опыты и системы агроэкологического мониторинга будут предоставлять данные для экосистемных моделей и систем поддержки принимаемых решений. Landscape research has been a traditional scientific discipline of geography. This is still the case in Russia, whilst the terms geo-ecology and landscape ecology have become established in the English speaking scientific community. Our short review reveals huge and accelerating anthropogenic landscape transformations in Europe, Central Asia and Asian Russia since the end the 1960s. Landscape research in the Anthropocene has to focus on achieving landscape sustainability at high productivity. This includes halting landscape degradation, developing cultural landscapes, and maintaining semi-natural landscapes. Clean water and air, fertile and healthy soils for food and other ecosystem services and a green and bio-diverse environment are attributes of landscapes for the survival and well-being of humans. Research has to generate knowledge, innovations and decision rules by disciplinary, interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary work. Knowledge generation in a globalized world is based on big data gathering and scenario modelling. International long-term experiments and agri-environmental monitoring systems will deliver data for ecosystem models and decision support systems.

Oligotrophic catchments with short spatey streams, upland lakes and peaty soils characterise northwest European Atlantic coastal regions. These catchments are important biodiversity refuges, particularly for sensitive diadromous fish populations but are subject to changes in land use and land management practices associated with afforestation, agriculture and rural development. Quantification of the degree of catchment degradation resulting from such anthropogenic impacts is often limited by a lack of long-term baseline data in what are generally relatively isolated, poorly studied catchments. This research uses a combination of palaeolimnological (radiometrically-dated variations in sedimentary geochemical elements, pollen, diatoms and remains of cladocera), census, and instrumental data, along with hindcast estimates to quantify environmental changes and their aquatic impacts since the late 19th century. The most likely drivers of any change are also identified. Results confirm an aquatic biotic response (phyto- and zooplankton) to soil erosion and nutrient enrichment associated with the onset of commercial conifer afforestation, effects that were subsequently enhanced as a result of increased overgrazing in the catchment and, possibly, climate warming. The implications for the health of aquatic resources in the catchment are discussed Environmental Protection Agency in Ireland (ILLUMINATE 2005-W-MS-40, P.McGinnity was supported by the Beaufort Marine Research Award in Fish Population Genetics funded by the Irish Government under the Sea Change Programme.

Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in eastern Congo dating to 1971. A study was conducted to find out the linkage between climate variability/change and cholera outbreak and to assess the related economic cost in the management of cholera in Congo.This study integrates historical data (20 years) on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in South-Kivu province, eastern Congo.Analyses of precipitation and temperatures characteristics in South-Kivu provinces showed that cholera epidemics are closely associated with climatic factors variability. Peaks in Cholera new cases were in synchrony with peaks in rainfalls. Cholera infection cases declined significantly (P<0.05) with the rise in the average temperature. The monthly number of new Cholera cases oscillated between 5 and 450. For every rise of the average temperature by 0.35 °C to 0.75 °C degree Celsius, and for every change in the rainfall variability by 10-19%, it is likely cholera infection risks will increase by 17 to 25%. The medical cost of treatment of Cholera case infection was found to be of US$50 to 250 per capita. The total costs of Cholera attributable to climate change were found to fall in the range of 4 to 8% of the per capita in annual income in Bukavu town.It is likely that high rainfall favor multiplication of the bacteria and contamination of water sources by the bacteria (Vibrio cholerae). The consumption of polluted water, promiscuity, population density and lack of hygiene are determinants favoring spread and infection of the bacteria among human beings living in over-crowded environments.

{"references": ["U.S. Energy Information Administration. \"How much energy is\nconsumed in residential and commercial buildings in the United States?\"\nAvailable at: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=86&t=1", "S. Darby, \"The effectiveness of feedback on energy consumption.\"\nEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 2006. Available\nat: http://www.globalwarmingisreal.com/energyconsump-feedback.pdf.\nVisited: September 2015", "J. S. John, \"Putting energy disaggregation tech to the test,\" November,\n2013. Greentech Media. Available at:\nhttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/putting-energydisaggregation-tech-to-the-test.\nVisited: September 2015", "A. Zoha, A. Gluhak, M. A. Imran, S. Rajasegarar, \"Non-intrusive load\nmonitoring approaches for disaggregated energy sensing: a survey,\"\nSensors, vol. 12, no. 12, pp. 16838-16866, December 2012.", "G. W. Hart, \"Nonintrusive appliance load monitoring,\" in Proc. of the\nIEEE, vol. 80, pp. 1870-1891, December 1992.", "M. Baranski, J. Voss, \"Non-intrusive appliance load monitoring based\non Optical Sensor,\" IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, Bologna,\nItaly, June 2003. Available at:\nhttp://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1304732", "L. Farinaccio, R. Zmeureanu, \"Using a pattern recognition approach to\ndisaggregate the total electricity consumption in a house into the major\nen-uses,\" Elsevier, Energy and Buildings, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 245-259,\nAugust 1999.", "J. M. Abreu, F. C. Pereira, P. Ferr\u00e3o, \"Using pattern recognition to\nidentify habitual behavior in residential electricity consumption,\"\nElsevier, Energy and Buildings, vol. 49, pp. 479-487, June 2012.", "C. Beckel, L. Sadamori, S. Santini, \"Automatic socio-economic\nclassification of households using electricity consumption data,\" in\nProc. of the 4th international conference on future energy systems, New\nYork, 2013, pp. 75-86.\n[10] H. Zhao, F. Magoul\u00e8s, \"A review on the prediction of building energy\nconsumption,\" Elsevier, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,\nvol. 16, no. 6, pp. 3586-3592, August 2012.\n[11] G. K. F. Tso, K. K. W. Yau, \"Predicting electricity energy consumption:\nA comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks,\"\nElsevier, Energy, vol. 32, no. 9, pp. 1761-1768, September 2007.\n[12] F. Farzan, S. A. Vaghefi, K. Mahani, M. A. Jafari, J. Gong, \"Operational\nplanning for multi-building portfolio in an uncertain energy market,\"\nElsevier, Energy and Buildings, vol. 103, pp. 271-283, September 2015."]} Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.

Ressourcen stellen die Basis für eine erfolgreiche industrielle und technologische Entwicklung dar und somit auch für den Wohlstand heutiger und zukünftiger Generationen. Mit steigender Ressourcennutzung nehmen auch die (physische und sozio-ökonomische) Verfügbarkeit abiotischer und biotischer Ressourcen, die Umweltverschmutzung und die sozialen Auswirkungen durch den Abbau und Nutzung der Ressourcen zu. Um den Erfolg implementierter Strategien (und deren Maßnahmen) hinsichtlich ihres Beitrags zu einem effizienten und nachhaltigen Umgang mit Ressourcen zu bewerten, bedarf es an entsprechenden Bewertungsmethoden. Diese Dissertation stellt vier Methoden bereit um die Bewertung abiotischer und biotischer Ressourcennutzung im Kontext der Nachhaltigkeit auf Produkt- und regionaler Ebene in konsistenter Weise zu bewerten. Die Methode zur Bewertung abiotischer Ressourcen auf Produktebene betrachtet insgesamt 21 relevante Aspekte und stellt Indikatoren zur Quantifizierung bereit. Für die Bewertung der sozio-ökonomischen Einschränkungen von Lieferketten ist eine neuer Ansatz entwickelt, der geopolitische, politische und regulative Aspekte berücksichtigt. Des Weiteren sind Screening-Indikatoren verfügbar, die die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz der Ressourcennutzung adressieren. Um die Verfügbarkeit terrestrischer biotischer Ressourcen in Produktsystemen zu bewerten, wurde eine umfassende Methode mit 25 Indikatoren erstellt. Des Weiteren wird ein Ansatz vorgestellt, der es ermöglicht eine konsistente Zusammenführung und somit auch Bewertung verschiedener Ressourcentypen zu ermöglichen. Er findet bei der Zusammenführung der entwickelten Methoden zur Bewertung abiotischer und biotischer Ressourcen Anwendung. Da die Nutzung von Ressourcen auch auf Macro-Ebene betrachtet werden muss, wurde eine Methode zur Bewertung abiotischer Ressourcen auf regionaler Ebene entwickelt, die 25 Indikatoren für die Bewertung der Kritikalität (Verfügbarkeit von Ressourcen und Vulnerabilität der Region) und der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz zur Verfügung stellt. Verschiedene Fallstudien wurden durchgeführt um die Anwendbarkeit der entwickelten Methoden aufzuzeigen und zu verdeutlichen, warum eine umfassende Bewertung der Ressourcennutzung notwendig ist. Die Fallstudien umfassen u.a. die Bewertung eines Smartphones, Pkw-Herstellung und Biokraftstoffe. Die Anwendbarkeit der Methoden wird zudem erhöht, indem Indikatorwerte für 36 Metalle und 4 fossile Rohstoffe zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Die Bewertung der Nutzung abiotischer und biotischer Ressourcen auf Produkt- und regionaler Ebene wird mit dieser Dissertation signifikant verbessert, indem vier wissenschaftliche Methoden zur robusten und umfassenden Bewertung aller drei Nachhaltigkeitsdimensionen bereitgestellt werden. Resources are the basis for a thriving industrial and technological development and therefore for prosperity of present and future generations. With increasing resource use, challenges with regard to (physical and socio-economic) availability of abiotic and biotic resources and raw materials, pollution of the environment as well as social impacts associated with resource extraction and use arise. To evaluate the success of strategies managing resource use more efficiently and sustainably methodologies are required to comprehensively assess resource use and related impacts. This thesis provides four methodologies to improve the assessment of abiotic and biotic resource use in the context of sustainability on product and regional level. For the method to assess abiotic resources use on product level overall 21 aspects are considered as relevant and indicator for quantification are provided. In order to determine socio-economic supply chain restrictions a new approach is developed, considering geopolitical, political and regulatory aspects affecting resource extraction and use. Further, screening indicators are established to evaluate the societal acceptance of resources with regard to compliance with social and environmental standards. To assess the availability of terrestrial biotic resources in product systems a comprehensive methodology is established, which includes 25 indicators. Further, an approach is proposed to combine assessment methodologies in a consistent way. This approach is applied to the developed method of this thesis leading to a combined methodology. The use of resources also has to be considered on macro-economic. Thus, a methodology is developed providing 25 indicators for the two dimensions criticality, consisting of the sub-dimensions (physical and socio-economic) availability and vulnerability, as well as societal acceptance. Several case studies are carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the developed methods and to confirm the need for a comprehensive assess of resource use on micro and macro level, e.g. case studies for smart phones and cars, for biofuels produced from rapeseed and soybean. The applicability of the methodologies is further enhanced by providing indicator results for 36 metals and four fossil raw materials. The assessment of abiotic and biotic resource use on product and regional level is improved significantly by establishing four scientifically robust yet applicable methodologies, which consider multiple aspects of resource use in all three sustainability dimensions.

Die Metropolregion Santiago (MRS) verzeichnete in den letzten Jahren ein großes Bevölkerungswachstum und einen Anstieg des Lebensstandards. Als Folge davon hat sich das Aufkommen von Siedlungsabfällen fast innerhalb von 10 Jahren verdoppelt. Die Daten für den aktuellen Zustand des Abfallmanagements wurden durch Feldforschungen, Fragebögen, Feldbesuche und durch eine systematische Auswertung von bereits vorliegender Literatur erhoben. Das integrative Nachhaltigkeitskonzept der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft diente als konzeptioneller Rahmen für die Studie. Zur Bewertung des aktuellen Zustands des Abfallmanagements wurden Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren identifiziert, deren aktuelle Werte bestimmt und Zielwerte festgelegt. Die Nachhaltigkeitsanalyse zeigt, dass die größten Defizite darin liegen, dass nahezu die gesamte Abfallmenge ohne jegliche Vorbehandlung deponiert wird. Damit verbunden sind lang andauernde Emissionen von Treibhausgasen. Um herauszufinden, wie der informelle Sektor im Abfallmanagement zur Nachhaltigkeit beiträgt, wurden veröffentlichten Erfahrungen mit informellen Müllsammlern in Lateinamerika analysiert. Dabei wurden die entsprechenden Akteure sowie etablierte Allianzen zwischen diesen Akteuren identifiziert. Schlüsselfaktoren für ein nachhaltiges Abfallmanagement unter Einbeziehung des informellen Sektors sind die Legalisierung der Schattenwirtschaft und feste Verträge mit Partnerunternehmen. Relevante Akteure für die Gestaltung der Arbeitsbedingungen des informellen Sektors sind Vertreter privater und öffentlicher Unternehmen, einzelne gesellschaftliche Gruppen sowie Vertreter von Nichtregierungsorganisationen. Schließlich wurden drei explorative Szenarien für das Bezugsjahr 2030 entwickelt: Business as Usual (BAU), Collective Responsibility (CR) und Market Individualism (MI). Das BAU-Szenario enthält eine getrennte Sammlung von Bioabfall und von Wertstoffen; hervorgerufen durch einen verstärkten Organisationsgrad der informellen Müllsammler und den Ausbau von Bring-Systemen. Die Errichtung mechanischer Sortierungsanlagen trägt zur Verwertung der Materialien und zum Recycling bei. Das entstehende Deponiegas und Biogas wird als erneuerbare Energiequelle genutzt. Das CR-Szenario enthält eine getrennte Sammlung von Bioabfall und Wertstoffen. Dies wird erreicht durch eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit den jetzt organisierten Müllsammlern und durch den Ausbau von Bring-Systemen. Mechanische Sortierungsanlagen tragen zur Verwertung von Materialien und zum Recycling bei. Durch Abtrennung einer heizwertreichen Fraktion in mechanisch biologischen Anlagen werden Sekundärbrennstoffe produziert. Darüber hinaus werden, das entstehende Deponiegas sowie das in Vergärungsanlagen erzeugte Biogas energetisch genutzt. Im MI-Szenario sind Wiederverwertungsstrategien von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Es gibt kein Interesse an einer Zusammenarbeit mit den informellen Müllsammlern und keine Anreize für einen verstärkten Organisationsgrad in diesem Bereich. Deshalb bleibt die Branche weitgehend informell. Technologische Entwicklungen in diesem Szenario enthalten die mechanische Sortierung von gemischtem Abfall und die energetische Verwertung von Deponiegas. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass das Pro-Kopf-Aufkommen an Siedlungsabfällen im Jahr 2030 in allen Szenarien deutlich höher als im Jahr 2007 ist und der festgelegte Zielwert von 1,6 kg/Kopf/Tag nicht erreicht wurde. Den höchsten Wert (2,0 kg/Kopf/Tag) weist das MI-Szenario auf, der niedrigste Wert (1,8 kg/Kopf/Tag) wurde im CR-Szenario gefunden. Eine Vorbehandlung der gesammelten gemischten Siedlungsabfälle findet nur im CR-Szenario statt, der entsprechende Wert beträgt 18 %, der Zielwert wird damit nicht erreicht. Die höchsten Treibhausgasemissionen treten im MI-Szenario (295 kg CO2-eq/Kopf/Jahr) auf, den niedrigsten Wert (155 kg CO2-eq/Kopf/Jahr) findet man im CR-Szenario. All diese Werte sind, verglichen mit dem festgelegten Zielwert von 71 kg/Kopf/Jahr, deutlich zu hoch. Der Zielwert für die Wiederverwertungsquote wurde im CR-Szenario erreicht (43 %), den niedrigsten Wert zeigt das MI-Szenario (20 %). Die Zielwerte für das Einkommen der Müllsammler wurden im CR-Szenario erreicht (128 %). Im MI-Szenario beträgt dieser Wert lediglich 51 %. Die Kosten für das Abfallmanagement im Verhältnis zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt sinken in den drei Szenarien. Aus den Ergebnissen lässt sich ableiten, dass ein Einbeziehen von mehreren Faktoren erforderlich ist, um die Nachhaltigkeit des Abfallmanagementsystems in den drei Szenarien zu steigern und dass es von wesentlicher Bedeutung ist, schon vorhandene und gut funktionierende Subsysteme, wie das der informellen Müllsammler, zu nutzen und zu stärken. Ebenso ist die Umsetzung robuster Behandlungstechnologien, die einen Beitrag zur Reduktion negativer Umweltauswirkungen leisten, zu forcieren. Diese Technologien sollten preiswert sein, um ihren Einsatz auch unter wirtschaftlich vertretbaren Gesichtspunkten zu ermöglichen. The Metropolitan Region of Santiago (MRS) has experienced a large growth in population in recent years and a rise in the standard of living. Therefore, its municipal solid waste (MSW) has almost doubled in 10 years. Data about the current situation of MSW management in MRS were collected during field research, interviews, field visits and by a systematic evaluation of existing documentary literature. The Integrative Sustainability Concept of the Helmholtz Association provided a conceptual framework for the study. The sustainability analysis showed that the largest deficits are in the current amount of MSW deposited at sanitary landfills without any pre-treatment, and the emission values of greenhouse gases associated with waste treatment and final disposal. To find out if and how the informal waste sector contributes to sustainability, experiences of organization of informal primary collectors in Latin America were analyzed. The key factors which have an influence on their working conditions were identified. These factors include the existence of a legal framework for the informal waste sector; the existence of alliances with production companies guaranteeing a reliable industrial market for secondary raw materials and expansion of activities beyond collection of recyclables. Key stakeholders included people from the public and the private sector, from the civil society and from NGOs. Three explorative scenarios were developed for the year 2030: Business as Usual (BAU), Collective Responsibility (CR), and Market Individualism (MI). Waste generation, waste composition and different practices of waste collection, recovery and treatment were taken into account for the scenarios formulation. The BAU scenario incorporated separate collection of biowaste, recyclable materials with some participation of organized primary collectors and an expansion of drop-off systems. The mechanical sorting of mixed waste was introduced. The utilization of landfill gas as an energy source was promoted and the production of biogas in anaerobic digestion plants was implemented. The CR scenario incorporated separate collection of biowaste, commitment to work together with the primary waste collectors and an expansion of drop-off systems. The mechanical and mechanical biological treatment of mixed waste was introduced. The utilization of landfill gas as an energy source is promoted and the production of biogas in anaerobic digestion plants was implemented. In the MI separate collection of biowaste and recyclable materials was irrelevant. An organization of the informal primary collectors did not take place. Mechanical sorting of mixed waste was introduced. Utilization of landfill gas as an energy source was promoted. The results showed that the generation flux of MSW is at least 50% larger in all scenarios in 2030 compared to the year 2007, exceeding the limit value proposed. The highest value (2.0 kg/(person•day) is obtained in the MI scenario, and the lowest (1.8 kg/(person•day)) in the CR scenario. Pre-treatment of mixed MSW collected is only achieved in the CR scenario with a value of 18%, however, the target value is not achieved. The highest greenhouse gas emission value is obtained in the MI scenario with 295 kg CO2eq/(person•year), the lowest value of 155 kg CO2-eq/(person•year) is obtained in the CR scenario; a value that is still very high in comparison with the suggested target. The largest recycling rate is obtained in the CR scenario (43%), which is better than the target value proposed, the lowest recycling rate is obtained in the MI scenario (20%). The income of primary collectors in comparison with the income of one individual household is improved significantly in the CR scenario (128%), in the MI scenario, earnings of primary collectors decreased to 51%. The share of GDP spent on MSW management is lower in 2030, compared to the year 2007, in all scenarios the largest value of 0.17% is obtained in the CR scenario, and the lowest value of 0.14% is obtained in the MI scenario. The results of the evaluation of the scenarios showed that the largest sustainability deficits are the amount of mixed MSW which undergoes pre-treatment, the greenhouse gas emissions associated to MSW treatment and disposal, as well as the share of GDP spent on MSW management. The results obtained suggested that an integration of several factors is required to increase sustainability. It is essential to strengthen and take advantage of the subsystems which are working within the waste management system, as in the case of the informal sector. In addition to the implementation of flexible treatment technologies which help to decrease negative environmental impacts. Moreover, the costs of these technologies should be affordable, allowing a better financial management.

The project between tthe Deutsche Biomasseforschungszentrum (DBFZ) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) focuses on the pr rovision of alternative fuels by thermochemical conversion. Biogenic residues and wastes which are not used yet or which could be utilised more efficiently are studied. The selection of possible feedstock was supported by a techhnical potential analysis including the competition to th he food industry. The technical suitability of raw materials for the fast pyrolysis (FP) process was of special in nterest. As a possible feedstock following types of biomass were studied: corn stover, corn cobs, biogenic floating re efuse (river Rhine and Baltic Sea), scrap wood, bark, rape s straw, sunflower straw, draff, diverse residues of flour production and hay. A process development unit (PDU) with a biomass feeding rate of 10 kg/h and a twin screw m mixer reactor was used for all experiments. It was found that different types of biomass form different char, condensate e and gas yields due to varying ash levels and lignocellulosic composition. Elemental formulas for feedstock, char, organic condensate and gas were estimated independent on t the feedstock due to similar elemental compositions. Pyrolysis gas analysis during the experiments gave information on the mass yields. A CO/CO2-ratio of 1 (i.e. wood) corresponds to organic condensate yields of about 50 wt.-%%, whereas a ratio of 0.3-0.7 (straw) corresponds to 18-32 wt. .-% respectively. Proceedings of the 20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 18-22 June 2012, Milan, Italy, pp. 973-977

Climate change is one of the preeminent policy issues of our day, and the social cost of carbon (SCC) is one of the foremost tools for determining the socially optimal policy response. The SCC is estimated using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), of which Nordhaus’ DICE is the oldest and one of the best respected. These numerical models capture the various steps in the climate and economic processes that translate a marginal unit of CO2 emissions into economic damage. While accuracy at each of these steps is necessary to precisely estimate the SCC, correct calibrating the climate damage function, which translates a temperature change into a percentage change in GDP, is critical. Calibration of the damage function determines which climate damages are included and excluded from the cost of carbon. Traditionally, Nordhaus calibrated the DICE damage function using a global damage estimate calculated by aggregating a series of region-sector specific damage estimates (Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000; Nordhaus, 2008). However, in DICE-2013, Nordhaus moved to calibrating the DICE damage function using a meta-analysis at the global scale (Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013). This paper critiques this meta-analysis approach as it is currently applied and re-estimates the DICE-2013 damage function using up-to-date meta-analysis techniques to more accurately reflect climate damages and the uncertainty underlying them. This paper finds that DICE-2013 damage function significantly under-estimates climate damages by a factor of two to three. This is a working paper.

The goal of this study is to determine the difference in CO2 emissions between 2019-2020 and 2020-2021, more specifically during lockdown periods during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the beginning of the pandemic, most countries were forced into lockdowns, and a countless number of people had to continue their daily work from home in isolation. Previously, people would go to an office or to school and leave their houses empty for eight hours, without having lights or any electronics on. Because of this, there should be a direct correlation between electricity usage before and during lockdowns, as a private residence should have higher electricity consumption during 2020-2021, when they are at home. Using machine learning, we will investigate to see if COVID-19 affected CO2 emissions as a result of more electricity usage in private residences. A model will be made to predict what the CO2 emissions would be for 2019-2020, based on electricity usage data from 2020-2021. Then, the real CO2 emissions from 2019-2020 will be compared with the model’s predicted values, and the difference will indicate if COVID-19 caused an inconsistency between actual and predicted CO2 emissions. Factors that were taken into account when making a model were independent variables relating to outdoor conditions, the number of people living in the house, and the temperature that the thermostat is set at, making the response variable CO2 emissions.