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The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

The summer of 2003 was the warmest summer in Europe since the 16th century. Its consequences on the fauna of a transitional ecosystem were studied through biodiversity, functional and ecological indicators, from summer 2002 to winter 2005. The heatwave caused considerable changes in the benthic community structure and relative composition, persisting in 2005. Animal assemblages switched from mollusc- to annelida-dominated. Biodiversity and functional indicators captured changes in community structure and composition, proving to be powerful tools to detect responses related to global warming. Ecological indicators rendered a monotonic response oscillating between bad and poor ecological status across the study period. The resilience of mollusc biocoenosis resulted limited with respect to other taxa, posing concerns about their conservation if, as predicted, the frequency of summers as hot as that of 2003 will progressively increase to become the norm at the end of this century.

The summer of 2003 was the warmest summer in Europe since the 16th century. Its consequences on the fauna of a transitional ecosystem were studied through biodiversity, functional and ecological indicators, from summer 2002 to winter 2005. The heatwave caused considerable changes in the benthic community structure and relative composition, persisting in 2005. Animal assemblages switched from mollusc- to annelida-dominated. Biodiversity and functional indicators captured changes in community structure and composition, proving to be powerful tools to detect responses related to global warming. Ecological indicators rendered a monotonic response oscillating between bad and poor ecological status across the study period. The resilience of mollusc biocoenosis resulted limited with respect to other taxa, posing concerns about their conservation if, as predicted, the frequency of summers as hot as that of 2003 will progressively increase to become the norm at the end of this century.

With approximately 60 Pg of carbon (C) released as CO2 annually, the decomposition of dead organic matter feeds the major terrestrial global CO2 flux to the atmosphere. Macroclimate control over this critical C flux facilitates the parametrization of the C cycle in Earth system models and the understanding of climate change effects on the global C balance. Yet, the long-standing paradigm of climate control was recently challenged by the so far underestimated environmental heterogeneity at local scales, questioning the conceptual framework of thousands of decomposition studies and accuracy of current predictive models. Using three complementary decomposition experiments at a European scale, we showed that macroclimate and litter characteristics largely control plant litter decomposition, reaffirming the role of macroclimate as an integrative decomposition driver through direct environmental control and by influencing co-evolving local plant and decomposer communities. Neglecting this latter indirect effect, commonly used standard litter types overrated micro-environmental control and failed to predict local decomposition of plot-specific litter. Our data help clarify a key question on the regulation of the global C cycle by identifying the relative role of control factors over decomposition and the scales at which they matter and by highlighting sources of confusion in the literature.

With approximately 60 Pg of carbon (C) released as CO2 annually, the decomposition of dead organic matter feeds the major terrestrial global CO2 flux to the atmosphere. Macroclimate control over this critical C flux facilitates the parametrization of the C cycle in Earth system models and the understanding of climate change effects on the global C balance. Yet, the long-standing paradigm of climate control was recently challenged by the so far underestimated environmental heterogeneity at local scales, questioning the conceptual framework of thousands of decomposition studies and accuracy of current predictive models. Using three complementary decomposition experiments at a European scale, we showed that macroclimate and litter characteristics largely control plant litter decomposition, reaffirming the role of macroclimate as an integrative decomposition driver through direct environmental control and by influencing co-evolving local plant and decomposer communities. Neglecting this latter indirect effect, commonly used standard litter types overrated micro-environmental control and failed to predict local decomposition of plot-specific litter. Our data help clarify a key question on the regulation of the global C cycle by identifying the relative role of control factors over decomposition and the scales at which they matter and by highlighting sources of confusion in the literature.

Aim: To test the hypothesis that communities with higher diversity have more predictable properties by examining patterns of community structure along a species richness gradient. Location: Trinidad and Tobago (11°00 N, 61°00 W), on the South American continental shelf, opposite the Orinoco River delta, north-east Venezuela. Methods: We used quantile regressions to investigate how three total abundance, absolute and relative dominance measures – numerical abundance, biomass and energy use, respectively – change across a species richness gradient. We investigated which allocation rule best mimics community assembly in this species richness gradient by examining the abundance of the dominant species and comparing it with predictions of niche apportionment models. Results: All measures of total abundance increase on average across the gradient, but the upper limit remains constant. On average, absolute dominance is constant, but the distance between the upper and lower limits decreases along the gradient. Relative dominance decreases with species richness. Observed dominance patterns are best described by Tokeshi's random fraction model. Main conclusions: Our results show that both total abundance and absolute dominance become increasingly variable as biodiversity decreases. Consequently, our study suggests that ecosystem properties are less predictable when biodiversity is lower.

Aim: To test the hypothesis that communities with higher diversity have more predictable properties by examining patterns of community structure along a species richness gradient. Location: Trinidad and Tobago (11°00 N, 61°00 W), on the South American continental shelf, opposite the Orinoco River delta, north-east Venezuela. Methods: We used quantile regressions to investigate how three total abundance, absolute and relative dominance measures – numerical abundance, biomass and energy use, respectively – change across a species richness gradient. We investigated which allocation rule best mimics community assembly in this species richness gradient by examining the abundance of the dominant species and comparing it with predictions of niche apportionment models. Results: All measures of total abundance increase on average across the gradient, but the upper limit remains constant. On average, absolute dominance is constant, but the distance between the upper and lower limits decreases along the gradient. Relative dominance decreases with species richness. Observed dominance patterns are best described by Tokeshi's random fraction model. Main conclusions: Our results show that both total abundance and absolute dominance become increasingly variable as biodiversity decreases. Consequently, our study suggests that ecosystem properties are less predictable when biodiversity is lower.