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AbstractThe potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and the recent conditions (1980–2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (global circulation models and regional climate models). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and subbasin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980–2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators. An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7–18%) and total water yield (11–28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4–4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water‐saving actions.

This paper analyzes different policies that may promote the transition to sustainability, with a particular focus on the energy sector. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies for sustainability are identified: reduction in GHG emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and the development of the renewable energy sector. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that those strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators: rate of growth, unemployment, fiscal position, GHG emission, and transition to renewable energy sources.

Abstract The use of electric bus fleets has become a topical issue in recent years. Several companies and municipalities, either voluntarily or to comply with legal requirements, will transition to greener bus fleets in the next decades. Such transitions are often established by fleet electrification targets, which dictate the number of electric buses that should be in the fleet by a given time period. In this paper we introduce a comprehensive optimization-based decision making tool to support such transitions. More precisely, we present a fleet replacement problem which allows organizations to determine bus replacement plans that will meet their fleet electrification targets in a cost-effective way, namely considering purchase costs, salvage revenues, operating costs, charging infrastructure investments, and demand charges. We account for several charging infrastructure options, such as slow and fast plug-in stations, overhead pantograph chargers, and inductive (wireless) chargers. We refer to this problem as the electric bus fleet transition problem, and we model it as an integer linear program. We apply our model to conduct computational experiments based on several scenarios. We use real data provided by a public transit agency in order to draw insights into optimal transition plans.

Abstract Purpose Investigating potential social and socio-economic impacts should play a key role for the development of sustainable mobility alternatives. Social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) is becoming increasingly important to ensure holistic sustainability assessments. The present work aims at identifying and evaluating social and socio-economic impact subcategories in S-LCA. A novel participatory approach implying all concerned stakeholders is proposed to select relevant impact subcategories and thus contribute to a thorough interpretation of S-LCA results. It is applied to assess electric and conventional vehicles. Methodology This paper describes a comprehensive step-by-step S-LCA framework. The innovation of this work consists in defining a structured S-LCA framework integrating a systematic approach based on two stages: (1) a sectorial risk analysis for the identification of impact subcategories and (2) a participatory approach for their prioritization. The proposed participatory approach considers all concerned stakeholders to enable the selection of the most relevant impact subcategories. A set of social inventory indicators is attributed to subcategories that were perceived as the most relevant. These are used to perform the social evaluation and carry out a full analysis in the result interpretation allowing thus to integrate a multi-actor perspective to the materiality assessment. Results The defined S-LCA framework is implemented to compare two mobility scenarios, corresponding to electric and conventional vehicle technologies. A new set of mobility-related impact subcategories is proposed for users’ stakeholder. Following the new designed participatory approach, subcategories for all stakeholders are prioritized according to different actors’ perceptions. For example, “safe and healthy living conditions,” “local employment,” and “delocalization and migration” were perceived for local communities as the most relevant subcategories by the different consulted stakeholders (industrial, academic, and public actors and users). These results also showed that social significance varies depending on the consulted actors and on the geographical area of the study. Using PSILCA database, we have investigated the subcategories that were perceived as the most relevant. Results for the evaluation and interpretation phases are presented for both transportation technologies. Conclusions This approach aims at increasing local relevance of S-LCA results and their representativeness. Results for the considered mobility scenarios have demonstrated the need to extend the scope of the materiality assessment, generally used for determining subcategories’ social significance from a single stakeholder perspective, by involving other stakeholders into the prioritization stage. Moreover, the proposed comprehensive S-LCA framework integrating the participatory approach is general enough to be applied to other product systems and sectors.

Purpose In Italy, composting olive mill waste has become a common practice, since it mitigates the environmental problems associated with spreading the waste on land. Compost can be used to prepare growth media for plant nursery cultivation as a substitute for peat, a non-renewable resource whose extraction has long raised environmental concerns. Here, we investigate two common composting procedures--open windrow and static-pile in gas-permeable bags--and compare them to evaluate their environmental impact. Methods We perform a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) in accordance with ISO 14040 and 14044. The LCA considers carbon storage in the soil after 100 years, fugitive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the impacts avoided by substituting for peat. We use cumulative energy demand, global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential, and eutrophication potential indicators in a contribution analysis and explore how the re-use of olive pits for energy production and reduction of commercial fertilizers improves the environmental balance. We also present a scenario analysis that indicates how parameter fluctuations affect the results. Results and discussion Our study shows that peat's impacts can be significantly reduced from 1162.3 to 96.3 kg CO2-eq/Mg for open windrow compost or 43.1 kg CO2-eq/Mg for static-pile compost in gas-permeable bags. For static-pile composting, the lack of volatile organic compound and ammonia emissions and the detection of oxygen concentrations above 12% vol. suggest fully aerobic conditions. Fugitive greenhouse gas emissions were the most important contributions to the GWP. In the contribution analysis for static-pile composting, the avoidance of compost spreading and the carbon storage effect (due to compost usage) contributed 54% of the overall impacts to GWP and between 21 and 45% to the other indicators. Conclusions This LCA study illustrates how horticulturists can improve their resource management practices by recycling olive mill waste materials. Proper management of composting unit aeration can reduce fugitive GHG emissions.

Die Metropolregion Santiago (MRS) verzeichnete in den letzten Jahren ein großes Bevölkerungswachstum und einen Anstieg des Lebensstandards. Als Folge davon hat sich das Aufkommen von Siedlungsabfällen fast innerhalb von 10 Jahren verdoppelt. Die Daten für den aktuellen Zustand des Abfallmanagements wurden durch Feldforschungen, Fragebögen, Feldbesuche und durch eine systematische Auswertung von bereits vorliegender Literatur erhoben. Das integrative Nachhaltigkeitskonzept der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft diente als konzeptioneller Rahmen für die Studie. Zur Bewertung des aktuellen Zustands des Abfallmanagements wurden Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren identifiziert, deren aktuelle Werte bestimmt und Zielwerte festgelegt. Die Nachhaltigkeitsanalyse zeigt, dass die größten Defizite darin liegen, dass nahezu die gesamte Abfallmenge ohne jegliche Vorbehandlung deponiert wird. Damit verbunden sind lang andauernde Emissionen von Treibhausgasen. Um herauszufinden, wie der informelle Sektor im Abfallmanagement zur Nachhaltigkeit beiträgt, wurden veröffentlichten Erfahrungen mit informellen Müllsammlern in Lateinamerika analysiert. Dabei wurden die entsprechenden Akteure sowie etablierte Allianzen zwischen diesen Akteuren identifiziert. Schlüsselfaktoren für ein nachhaltiges Abfallmanagement unter Einbeziehung des informellen Sektors sind die Legalisierung der Schattenwirtschaft und feste Verträge mit Partnerunternehmen. Relevante Akteure für die Gestaltung der Arbeitsbedingungen des informellen Sektors sind Vertreter privater und öffentlicher Unternehmen, einzelne gesellschaftliche Gruppen sowie Vertreter von Nichtregierungsorganisationen. Schließlich wurden drei explorative Szenarien für das Bezugsjahr 2030 entwickelt: Business as Usual (BAU), Collective Responsibility (CR) und Market Individualism (MI). Das BAU-Szenario enthält eine getrennte Sammlung von Bioabfall und von Wertstoffen; hervorgerufen durch einen verstärkten Organisationsgrad der informellen Müllsammler und den Ausbau von Bring-Systemen. Die Errichtung mechanischer Sortierungsanlagen trägt zur Verwertung der Materialien und zum Recycling bei. Das entstehende Deponiegas und Biogas wird als erneuerbare Energiequelle genutzt. Das CR-Szenario enthält eine getrennte Sammlung von Bioabfall und Wertstoffen. Dies wird erreicht durch eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit den jetzt organisierten Müllsammlern und durch den Ausbau von Bring-Systemen. Mechanische Sortierungsanlagen tragen zur Verwertung von Materialien und zum Recycling bei. Durch Abtrennung einer heizwertreichen Fraktion in mechanisch biologischen Anlagen werden Sekundärbrennstoffe produziert. Darüber hinaus werden, das entstehende Deponiegas sowie das in Vergärungsanlagen erzeugte Biogas energetisch genutzt. Im MI-Szenario sind Wiederverwertungsstrategien von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Es gibt kein Interesse an einer Zusammenarbeit mit den informellen Müllsammlern und keine Anreize für einen verstärkten Organisationsgrad in diesem Bereich. Deshalb bleibt die Branche weitgehend informell. Technologische Entwicklungen in diesem Szenario enthalten die mechanische Sortierung von gemischtem Abfall und die energetische Verwertung von Deponiegas. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass das Pro-Kopf-Aufkommen an Siedlungsabfällen im Jahr 2030 in allen Szenarien deutlich höher als im Jahr 2007 ist und der festgelegte Zielwert von 1,6 kg/Kopf/Tag nicht erreicht wurde. Den höchsten Wert (2,0 kg/Kopf/Tag) weist das MI-Szenario auf, der niedrigste Wert (1,8 kg/Kopf/Tag) wurde im CR-Szenario gefunden. Eine Vorbehandlung der gesammelten gemischten Siedlungsabfälle findet nur im CR-Szenario statt, der entsprechende Wert beträgt 18 %, der Zielwert wird damit nicht erreicht. Die höchsten Treibhausgasemissionen treten im MI-Szenario (295 kg CO2-eq/Kopf/Jahr) auf, den niedrigsten Wert (155 kg CO2-eq/Kopf/Jahr) findet man im CR-Szenario. All diese Werte sind, verglichen mit dem festgelegten Zielwert von 71 kg/Kopf/Jahr, deutlich zu hoch. Der Zielwert für die Wiederverwertungsquote wurde im CR-Szenario erreicht (43 %), den niedrigsten Wert zeigt das MI-Szenario (20 %). Die Zielwerte für das Einkommen der Müllsammler wurden im CR-Szenario erreicht (128 %). Im MI-Szenario beträgt dieser Wert lediglich 51 %. Die Kosten für das Abfallmanagement im Verhältnis zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt sinken in den drei Szenarien. Aus den Ergebnissen lässt sich ableiten, dass ein Einbeziehen von mehreren Faktoren erforderlich ist, um die Nachhaltigkeit des Abfallmanagementsystems in den drei Szenarien zu steigern und dass es von wesentlicher Bedeutung ist, schon vorhandene und gut funktionierende Subsysteme, wie das der informellen Müllsammler, zu nutzen und zu stärken. Ebenso ist die Umsetzung robuster Behandlungstechnologien, die einen Beitrag zur Reduktion negativer Umweltauswirkungen leisten, zu forcieren. Diese Technologien sollten preiswert sein, um ihren Einsatz auch unter wirtschaftlich vertretbaren Gesichtspunkten zu ermöglichen. The Metropolitan Region of Santiago (MRS) has experienced a large growth in population in recent years and a rise in the standard of living. Therefore, its municipal solid waste (MSW) has almost doubled in 10 years. Data about the current situation of MSW management in MRS were collected during field research, interviews, field visits and by a systematic evaluation of existing documentary literature. The Integrative Sustainability Concept of the Helmholtz Association provided a conceptual framework for the study. The sustainability analysis showed that the largest deficits are in the current amount of MSW deposited at sanitary landfills without any pre-treatment, and the emission values of greenhouse gases associated with waste treatment and final disposal. To find out if and how the informal waste sector contributes to sustainability, experiences of organization of informal primary collectors in Latin America were analyzed. The key factors which have an influence on their working conditions were identified. These factors include the existence of a legal framework for the informal waste sector; the existence of alliances with production companies guaranteeing a reliable industrial market for secondary raw materials and expansion of activities beyond collection of recyclables. Key stakeholders included people from the public and the private sector, from the civil society and from NGOs. Three explorative scenarios were developed for the year 2030: Business as Usual (BAU), Collective Responsibility (CR), and Market Individualism (MI). Waste generation, waste composition and different practices of waste collection, recovery and treatment were taken into account for the scenarios formulation. The BAU scenario incorporated separate collection of biowaste, recyclable materials with some participation of organized primary collectors and an expansion of drop-off systems. The mechanical sorting of mixed waste was introduced. The utilization of landfill gas as an energy source was promoted and the production of biogas in anaerobic digestion plants was implemented. The CR scenario incorporated separate collection of biowaste, commitment to work together with the primary waste collectors and an expansion of drop-off systems. The mechanical and mechanical biological treatment of mixed waste was introduced. The utilization of landfill gas as an energy source is promoted and the production of biogas in anaerobic digestion plants was implemented. In the MI separate collection of biowaste and recyclable materials was irrelevant. An organization of the informal primary collectors did not take place. Mechanical sorting of mixed waste was introduced. Utilization of landfill gas as an energy source was promoted. The results showed that the generation flux of MSW is at least 50% larger in all scenarios in 2030 compared to the year 2007, exceeding the limit value proposed. The highest value (2.0 kg/(person•day) is obtained in the MI scenario, and the lowest (1.8 kg/(person•day)) in the CR scenario. Pre-treatment of mixed MSW collected is only achieved in the CR scenario with a value of 18%, however, the target value is not achieved. The highest greenhouse gas emission value is obtained in the MI scenario with 295 kg CO2eq/(person•year), the lowest value of 155 kg CO2-eq/(person•year) is obtained in the CR scenario; a value that is still very high in comparison with the suggested target. The largest recycling rate is obtained in the CR scenario (43%), which is better than the target value proposed, the lowest recycling rate is obtained in the MI scenario (20%). The income of primary collectors in comparison with the income of one individual household is improved significantly in the CR scenario (128%), in the MI scenario, earnings of primary collectors decreased to 51%. The share of GDP spent on MSW management is lower in 2030, compared to the year 2007, in all scenarios the largest value of 0.17% is obtained in the CR scenario, and the lowest value of 0.14% is obtained in the MI scenario. The results of the evaluation of the scenarios showed that the largest sustainability deficits are the amount of mixed MSW which undergoes pre-treatment, the greenhouse gas emissions associated to MSW treatment and disposal, as well as the share of GDP spent on MSW management. The results obtained suggested that an integration of several factors is required to increase sustainability. It is essential to strengthen and take advantage of the subsystems which are working within the waste management system, as in the case of the informal sector. In addition to the implementation of flexible treatment technologies which help to decrease negative environmental impacts. Moreover, the costs of these technologies should be affordable, allowing a better financial management.

L'agriculture subsaharienne a été identifiée comme vulnérable au changement climatique en cours. L'adaptation de l'agriculture a été suggérée comme un moyen de maintenir la productivité. Une meilleure connaissance de la diversité intra-spécifique des variétés est une condition préalable à la bonne gestion de cette adaptation. Parmi les cultures, les racines et les tubercules jouent un rôle important dans la sécurité alimentaire et la croissance économique des populations les plus vulnérables d'Afrique. Ici, nous nous concentrons sur la patate douce. La patate douce (Ipomoea batatas) a été domestiquée en Amérique centrale et en Amérique du Sud et a ensuite été introduite en Afrique et est maintenant cultivée dans toute l'Afrique tropicale. Nous avons évalué sa diversité en Afrique de l'Ouest en échantillonnant une région s'étendant de la zone côtière du Togo à la région septentrionale sahélienne du Sénégal qui représente une gamme de conditions climatiques. À l'aide de 12 marqueurs microsatellites, nous avons évalué 132 variétés le long de ce gradient. Des données phénotypiques issues d'essais sur le terrain menés en trois saisons ont également été obtenues. La diversité génétique en Afrique de l'Ouest s'est avérée inférieure de 18 % à celle des États-Unis. La diversité génétique en Afrique de l'Ouest est structurée en cinq groupes, certains groupes se trouvant dans des zones climatiques très spécifiques, par exemple sous un climat tropical humide ou sous un climat sahélien. Nous avons également observé des groupes génétiques qui se produisent dans un plus large éventail de climats. Les groupes génétiques ont également été associés à la différenciation morphologique, principalement la forme des feuilles et la couleur de la tige ou de la racine. Cette structure particulière de la diversité le long d'un gradient climatique avec association à la variabilité phénotypique peut être utilisée pour des stratégies de conservation. S'il s'avère qu'une telle structure est associée à une adaptation climatique spécifique, elle permettra également de développer des stratégies pour adapter l'agriculture aux variations climatiques en cours en Afrique de l'Ouest. La agricultura subsahariana ha sido identificada como vulnerable al cambio climático en curso. Se ha sugerido la adaptación de la agricultura como una forma de mantener la productividad. Un mejor conocimiento de la diversidad intraespecífica de variedades es un requisito previo para el manejo exitoso de dicha adaptación. Entre los cultivos, la raíz y los tubérculos desempeñan un papel importante en la seguridad alimentaria y el crecimiento económico de las poblaciones más vulnerables de África. Aquí, nos centramos en la batata. La batata (Ipomoea batatas) se domesticó en América Central y del Sur y más tarde se introdujo en África y ahora se cultiva en toda el África tropical. Evaluamos su diversidad en África Occidental mediante el muestreo de una región que se extiende desde la zona costera de Togo hasta la región septentrional del Sahel en Senegal y que representa una variedad de condiciones climáticas. Utilizando 12 marcadores de microsatélites, evaluamos 132 variedades a lo largo de este gradiente. También se obtuvieron datos fenotípicos de ensayos de campo realizados en tres temporadas. Se encontró que la diversidad genética en África Occidental era un 18% menor que en América. La diversidad genética en África Occidental se estructura en cinco grupos, y algunos grupos se encuentran en áreas climáticas muy específicas, por ejemplo, en un clima tropical húmedo o en un clima saheliano. También observamos grupos genéticos que se producen en una gama más amplia de climas. Los grupos genéticos también se asociaron con la diferenciación morfológica, principalmente la forma de las hojas y el color del tallo o raíz. Esta estructura particular de diversidad a lo largo de un gradiente climático con asociación a la variabilidad fenotípica se puede utilizar para estrategias de conservación. Si se demuestra que dicha estructura está asociada con una adaptación climática específica, también permitirá desarrollar estrategias para adaptar la agricultura a la variación climática en curso en África Occidental. Sub-Saharan agriculture has been identified as vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Adaptation of agriculture has been suggested as a way to maintain productivity. Better knowledge of intra-specific diversity of varieties is prerequisites for the successful management of such adaptation. Among crops, root and tubers play important roles in food security and economic growth for the most vulnerable populations in Africa. Here, we focus on the sweet potato. The Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) was domesticated in Central and South America and was later introduced into Africa and is now cultivated throughout tropical Africa. We evaluated its diversity in West Africa by sampling a region extending from the coastal area of Togo to the northern Sahelian region of Senegal that represents a range of climatic conditions. Using 12 microsatellite markers, we evaluated 132 varieties along this gradient. Phenotypic data from field trials conducted in three seasons was also obtained. Genetic diversity in West Africa was found to be 18% lower than in America. Genetic diversity in West Africa is structured into five groups, with some groups found in very specific climatic areas, e.g. under a tropical humid climate, or under a Sahelian climate. We also observed genetic groups that occur in a wider range of climates. The genetic groups were also associated with morphological differentiation, mainly the shape of the leaves and the color of the stem or root. This particular structure of diversity along a climatic gradient with association to phenotypic variability can be used for conservation strategies. If such structure is proved to be associated with specific climatic adaptation, it will also allow developing strategies to adapt agriculture to ongoing climate variation in West Africa. تم تحديد الزراعة في جنوب الصحراء على أنها عرضة لتغير المناخ المستمر. تم اقتراح تكييف الزراعة كوسيلة للحفاظ على الإنتاجية. إن المعرفة الأفضل بتنوع الأصناف داخل الأنواع هو شرط أساسي للإدارة الناجحة لهذا التكيف. من بين المحاصيل، تلعب الجذور والدرنات أدوارًا مهمة في الأمن الغذائي والنمو الاقتصادي للفئات السكانية الأكثر ضعفًا في أفريقيا. هنا، نركز على البطاطا الحلوة. تم تدجين البطاطا الحلوة (إيبومويا باتاتاس) في أمريكا الوسطى والجنوبية وتم إدخالها لاحقًا إلى إفريقيا ويتم زراعتها الآن في جميع أنحاء إفريقيا الاستوائية. قمنا بتقييم تنوعها في غرب إفريقيا من خلال أخذ عينات من منطقة تمتد من المنطقة الساحلية لتوغو إلى منطقة الساحل الشمالي للسنغال التي تمثل مجموعة من الظروف المناخية. باستخدام 12 علامة للأقمار الصناعية الصغيرة، قمنا بتقييم 132 نوعًا على طول هذا التدرج. كما تم الحصول على بيانات النمط الظاهري من التجارب الميدانية التي أجريت في ثلاثة مواسم. وجد أن التنوع الوراثي في غرب إفريقيا أقل بنسبة 18 ٪ منه في أمريكا. ينقسم التنوع الوراثي في غرب أفريقيا إلى خمس مجموعات، حيث توجد بعض المجموعات في مناطق مناخية محددة للغاية، على سبيل المثال في ظل مناخ استوائي رطب، أو في ظل مناخ الساحل. لاحظنا أيضًا المجموعات الوراثية التي تحدث في مجموعة واسعة من المناخات. ارتبطت المجموعات الوراثية أيضًا بالتمايز المورفولوجي، بشكل أساسي شكل الأوراق ولون الجذع أو الجذر. يمكن استخدام هذا الهيكل الخاص للتنوع على طول التدرج المناخي مع الارتباط بالتغير الظاهري لاستراتيجيات الحفظ. إذا ثبت أن هذا الهيكل مرتبط بتكيف مناخي محدد، فسيسمح أيضًا بتطوير استراتيجيات لتكييف الزراعة مع التقلبات المناخية المستمرة في غرب إفريقيا.