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Input files for the ForClim model (version 4.0.1) used in the associated paper. They can be used to to reproduce results of the simulation study. The ForClim model, including the source code, executable and documentation, is freely available under an Open Access license from the website of the original developers at https://ites-fe.ethz.ch/openaccess/. The original climatic dataset used to generate the ForClim input climate files at each site in South Tyrol is freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.924502 while the CHELSA climate data for future scenarios are available at https://www.chelsa-climate.org. If interested in using this dataset for a research study or a project, please contact Marco Mina ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Hillebrand L, Marzini S, Crespi A, Hiltner U & Mina M (2023) Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6, 2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235 ABSTRACT. Protection forests play a key role in protecting settlements, people, and infrastructures from gravitational hazards such as rockfalls and avalanches in mountain areas. Rapid climate change is challenging the role of protection forests by altering their dynamics, structure, and composition. Information on local- and regional-scale impacts of climate change on protection forests is critical for planning adaptations in forest management. We used a model of forest dynamics (ForClim) to assess the succession of mountain forests in the Eastern Alps and their protective effects under future climate change scenarios. We investigated eleven representative forest sites along an elevational gradient across multiple locations within an administrative region, covering wide differences in tree species structure, composition, altitude, and exposition. We evaluated protective performance against rockfall and avalanches using numerical indices (i.e., linker functions) quantifying the degree of protection from metrics of simulated forest structure and composition. Our findings reveal that climate warming has a contrasting impact on protective effects in mountain forests of the Eastern Alps. Climate change is likely to not affect negatively all protection forest stands but its impact depends on site and stand conditions. Impacts were highly contingent to the magnitude of climate warming, with increasing criticality under the most severe climate projections. Forests in lower-montane elevations and those located in dry continental valleys showed drastic changes in forest structure and composition due to drought-induced mortality while subalpine forests mostly profited from rising temperatures and a longer vegetation period. Overall, avalanche protection will likely be negatively affected by climate change, while the ability of forests to maintain rockfall protection depends on the severity of expected climate change and their vulnerability due to elevation and topography, with most subalpine forests less prone to loosing protective effects. Proactive measures in management should be taken in the near future to avoid losses of protective effects in the case of severe climate change in the Alps. Given the heterogeneous impact of climate warming, such adaptations can be aided by model-based projections and high local resolution studies to identify forest stand types that might require management priority for maintaining protective effects in the future.

Comprehensive and reliable information on anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions is required to track progress towards keeping warming well below 2°C as agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. Here we provide a dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions 1970-2019 with a broad country and sector coverage. We build the dataset from recent releases from the “Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research” (EDGAR) for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI), CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, and fluorinated gases and use a well-established fast-track method to extend this dataset from 2018 to 2019. We complement this with information on net CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) from three available bookkeeping models.

Suitability maps (raster format: geotiff) of Quercus frainetto, computed using the ForestFocus European dataset of species presence/absence. The adopted suitability model estimates the optimal environmental conditions for European tree species under present and future climates. Available years: 2000, 2020, 2050, 2080. For year 2000 the observed (WorldClim) climate conditions have been used. For years 2020, 2050, 2080 the climate conditions simulated for the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 have been used (by means of the climate models CCCMA, CSIRO, HANDCM3 and of an ensemble model of them).

This dataset contains spatial predictions of the potential environmental spaces for pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost areas. The potential environmental spaces, i.e. conditions where climate, topography and soil properties are suitable for landform presence, were predicted with statistical ensemble modelling employing geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution (~1 km). In addition to the baseline period (1950-2000), the predictions are provided for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The resulting dataset consists of five spatial predictions for each landform in GeoTIFF format.The data provide new information on 1) the fine-scale spatial distribution of permafrost landforms in the Northern Hemisphere, 2) the potential future alterations in the environmental suitability for permafrost landforms due to climate change, and 3) the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types, and can 4) facilitate efforts to inventory permafrost landforms in incompletely mapped areas.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.CMCC.CMCC-CM2-SR5.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CMCC-CM2-SR5 climate model, released in 2016, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM3, atmos: CAM5.3 (1deg; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 30 levels; top at ~2 hPa), land: CLM4.5 (BGC mode), ocean: NEMO3.6 (ORCA1 tripolar primarly 1 deg lat/lon with meridional refinement down to 1/3 degree in the tropics; 362 x 292 longitude/latitude; 50 vertical levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), seaIce: CICE4.0. The model was run by the Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce 73100, Italy (CMCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Suitability maps (raster format: geotiff) of Fraxinus excelsior, computed using the ForestFocus European dataset of species presence/absence. The adopted suitability model estimates the optimal environmental conditions for European tree species under present and future climates. Available years: 2000, 2020, 2050, 2080. For year 2000 the observed (WorldClim) climate conditions have been used. For years 2020, 2050, 2080 the climate conditions simulated for the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 have been used (by means of the climate models CCCMA, CSIRO, HANDCM3 and of an ensemble model of them).

Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

Hydrochar, carbon-rich material produced during the thermochemical processing of biomass, is receiving increased attention due to its potential value as soil amendment. It can increase agroforestry systems’ productivity through direct and indirect effects on growth and soil quality. Hydrochar may also directly help mitigate climate change by sequestering stable carbon compounds in the soil and perhaps indirectly through increased C uptake by trees. In this research, we aim to evaluate how the application of hydrochar produced by two feedstock types, Cynara cardunculus L. (Hc) residuals and sewage sludge (Hs), and in two different doses (3 and 6 kg m−2) could improve the growth and water use efficiency of Populus alba L., a fast-growing tree species largely used in agroforestry as bioenergy crops and in C sequestration. We considered five plants per treatment, and we measured apical growth, secondary growth, leaf area and intrinsic water use efficiency in each plant for the whole growing season from February to October 2022. Our results highlighted that hydrochar applications stimulate the growth and water use efficiency of plants and that the double dose (6 kg m−2) of both hydrochars, and particularly Hc, had positive effects on plant performance, especially during extremely hot periods. Indeed, the year 2022 was characterized by a heat wave during the summer period, and this condition allowed us to evaluate how plants, growing in soils amended with hydrochar, could perform under climate extremes. Our findings showed that the control plants experienced severe damage in terms of dried stems and dried leaves during summer 2022, while hydrochar applications reduced these effects.